Credit Growth And Economic Recovery In Europe After The Global Financial Crisis

This paper reviews the empirical relationships between credit growth, economic recovery, and bank profitability in Europe after the global financial crisis (GFC). We find that the post-GFC recoveries in Europe have been weaker than previous recoveries, with the “double-dip” recessions in 2011–12 in many countries and the worldwide reach of the GFC explaining the underperformance. Bank lending has been subdued as well, but this appears to have only held back the recovery relatively moderately. A 10 percent increase in bank credit to the private sector is associated with a rise of 0.6–1 percent in real GDP and 2–21⁄2 percent in real private investment. These relationships have not changed significantly during and after the GFC. Loan quality, customer deposits, bank equity price index, and bank capital appear to be closely linked to bank lending. As expected, bank profitability is positively and significantly influenced by credit growth, but this relationship has weakened after the GFC.

The limited access to bank credit in recent years has increased the pressure on small and medium size enterprises (SMEs), forcing them to scale down investment plans and production. This paper, which explores the macroeconomic implications of this channel, finds evidence that countries with high prevalence of SMEs tended to recover more slowly from the global financial crisis than their peers, implying that the interaction of the economic structure and access to bank financing plays a critical role in episodes of economic recovery. This conclusion is reinforced by a VAR estimation, which demonstrates that a negative credit supply shock applied to SMEs has an adverse effect on economic activity, and this impact is amplified in countries that have a high share of SMEs.

Emerging Europe has suffered a severe economic crisis in recent years, and is only gradually recovering; the prospects for a convergence with the rest of the EU are still uncertain. In this book policymakers, high-level practitioners and experts from central banks identify the main reasons for the crisis and the challenges for the recovery process.

Contents: (1) Overview: Financial Architecture; Economic Performance; (2) The Financial Crisis and the European Union; (3) Phase I ¿ Build-up; (4) Phase II ¿ Liquidity Issues: Central Bank Operations; Interest Rates; Currency Swap Facilities; Depositor Guarantees; (5) Phase III ¿ Solvency and Deleveraging: The ¿European Framework for Action¿; ¿Bad Banks¿; (6) Phase IV ¿ Fiscal Intervention; European Economic Recovery Plan; Germany; France; United Kingdom; (7) Outlook. Charts and tables.

This Selected Issues paper takes the case of Slovenia to analyze credit growth and economic recovery in Europe. The findings reveal that following the global financial crisis recovery in Slovenia significantly lags typical postrecession recoveries for both typical and financial-crisis-driven recessions. Credit dynamics have also been much more subdued. Controlling for Slovenia’s double-dip recession and the slowdown in global growth after the global financial crisis reveals that Slovenia’s recovery is not atypical. The cross-country study also finds that bank-specific factors are the key determinants of bank lending. Bank credit to the private sector also has a positive but modest impact on economic activity, mainly through the investment channel.

An engaging look at the road to a sustained economic recovery The global finance system can be regulated to prevent massive credit fraud, tame capitalism, confront the sovereign debt crisis, and move towards investing in the real economy and full employment. "Obamanomics", and American reinvention can lead to a sustained economic recovery but only together with major domestic, European, and global monetary reforms in cooperation with emerging nations. For decades, the U.S. dollar has served as the world's reserve currency. But after the global market meltdown and the resulting massive stimulus spending meant to keep the Great Recession from becoming an even Greater Depression, confidence in America's ability to make good on its growing debt is at all-time lows. In Brave New World Economy: Global Finance Threatens Our Future, Wilhelm Hankel and Robert Isaak—two extremely controversial, yet highly respected experts on international economics and management—describe how "Obamanomics," the Euro crisis, and shift of economic growth from the West to emerging economies, if handled properly, can lead to true economic stability and job creation. Highlights America's 'Great Bluff' bail-out strategy to cope with the crisis and the reforms Obamanomics must make to bring about sustainable job recovery Describes the risks and rewards of borrowing from future generations—in the United States, Europe, and the developing world—to save the current generation Details how money became separated from government control and why the interbanking credit system threatens western nations with bankruptcy, undermining pensions, and the human right to work Points out why nation-states need to go back to helping themselves and not rely on the false promises of regional integration and globalization Shows how legalizing underground labor will create more jobs How we arrived at this economic crossroads isn't as important as the decision as to which path to take. The Brave New World Economy points us in the right direction.

Emerging Europe was particularly hard hit by the global financial crisis, but a concerted effort by local policymakers and the international community staved off impending financial meltdown and laid the foundations for renewed convergence with western Europe. This book, written by staff of the IMF's European Department that worked on the region at the time, provides a unique account of events: the origins of the crisis and the precrisis policy setting; the crisis trigger and the scramble to avoid the worst; the stabilization and recovery; the remaining challenges; and the lessons for the future. Five regional chapters provide the analytics to put events into perspective. Dedicated chapters for all 19 countries of the region dig deeper into the idiosyncrasies of each economy and provide extensive economic data. A final chapter distills the lessons from the overall regional experience and the wide intraregional diversity. Taken together, they make this book an indispensible reference for economic scholars of the region and beyond.

After the Crisis reassesses the twin projects of structural reform and European integration in the wake of the Great Recession and the European Sovereign Debt Crisis. The introduction compares the pre-crises debate to the current situation, and highlights a number of ways in which both reform and further integration may have become more difficult. Chapter 1 surveys the state of the structural-reform agenda, its successes, failures, and priorities for further action. The second chapter focuses on the fiscal-policy response to the crisis and advocates a greater balance between supply-side reforms and demand-side management. The third chapter focuses on the asymmetric shocks across economies in the monetary union, and discusses institutional mechanisms to reduce their frequency and impact. Chapter 4 examines the cyclical behavior of output and financial indicators, as well as the counter-cyclical role of macro-financial policies, both at the national and the European level. The fifth chapter studies changes in Europeans' attitudes, showing how the recent crises have eroded public confidence in European institutions. The sixth chapter tackles the demographic challenges facing Europe, and particularly the way that demographic change may impact the reform agenda. Chapter 7 highlights the under-appreciated extent to which 'Europe', taken as a whole, is characterized by a substantial amount of inequality and geographical income clustering, and the challenge this poses for further integration.