Decision Modeling And Behavior In Complex And Uncertain Environments

This text examines new research at the interface of operations research, behavioral and cognitive sciences, and decision analysis. From the cognitive behaviorist who collects empirical evidence as to how people make decisions to the engineer and economist who are the consumers of such understanding, the reader encounters the familiar Traveling Salesman Problem and Prisoner's dilemma, how agricultural decisions are made in Argentina's Pampas region, and some social goals that come into play as an element of rational decision-making. In these 14 self-contained chapters, broad topics covered include the integration of decision analysis and behavioral models, innovations in behavioral models, exploring descriptive behavior models, and experimental studies.

Today's ever more complex world creates challenges for decision makers. This volume reviews the principles underlying complex decision making, the handling of uncertainties in dynamic environments, and the various modeling approaches. Beginning with a discussion of the underlying concepts, theories and empirical evidence, the book gives you a range of practical tools and techniques for decision making in complex environments and systems.

This four-volume set LNCS 6761-6764 constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Human-Computer Interaction, HCII 2011, held in Orlando, FL, USA in July 2011, jointly with 8 other thematically similar conferences. The revised papers presented were carefully reviewed and selected from numerous submissions. The papers accepted for presentation thoroughly cover the entire field of Human-Computer Interaction, addressing major advances in knowledge and effective use of computers in a variety of application areas. The papers of this first volume are organized in topical sections on HCI design, model-based and patterns-based design and development, cognitive, psychological and behavioural issues in HCI, development methods, algorithms, tools and environments, and image processing and retrieval in HCI.

This textbook is about three key aspects of system design: decision making under uncertainty, trade-off studies and formal risk analyses. Recognizing that the mathematical treatment of these topics is similar, the authors generalize existing mathematical techniques to cover all three areas. Common to these topics are importance weights, combining functions, scoring functions, quantitative metrics, prioritization and sensitivity analyses. Furthermore, human decision-making activities and problems use these same tools. Therefore, these problems are also treated uniformly and modeled using prospect theory. Aimed at both engineering and business practitioners and students interested in systems engineering, risk analysis, operational management, and business process modeling, Tradeoff Decisions in System Design explains how humans can overcome cognitive biases and avoid mental errors when conducting trade-off studies and risk analyses in a wide range of domains. With generous use of examples as a common thread across chapters this book. “This book provides an excellent road map for designing and producing competitive products.”

This book provides a practice-driven, yet rigorous approach to executive management decision-making that performs well even under unpredictable conditions. It explains how executives can employ prescribed engineering design methods to arrive at robust outcomes even when faced with uncontrollable uncertainty. The book presents the paradigm and its main principles in Part I; in Part II it illustrates how to frame a decision situation and how to design the decision so that it will produce its intended behavior. In turn, Part III discusses in detail in situ case studies on executive management decisions. Lastly, Part IV summarizes the book and formulates the key lessons learned.

A comprehensive, up-to-date examination of the most important theory, concepts, methodological approaches, and applications in the burgeoning field of judgment and decision making (JDM) Emphasizes the growth of JDM applications with chapters devoted to medical decision making, decision making and the law, consumer behavior, and more Addresses controversial topics from multiple perspectives – such as choice from description versus choice from experience – and contrasts between empirical methodologies employed in behavioral economics and psychology Brings together a multi-disciplinary group of contributors from across the social sciences, including psychology, economics, marketing, finance, public policy, sociology, and philosophy 2 Volumes

This book contains the refereed proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Business Process Modeling, Development and Support (BPMDS 2013) and the 18th International Conference on Exploring Modeling Methods for Systems Analysis and Design (EMMSAD 2013), held together with the 25th International Conference on Advanced Information Systems Engineering (CAiSE 2013) in Valencia, Spain, in June 2013. The 15 full papers, two experience reports, and three idea papers accepted for BPMDS were selected from 54 submissions and cover a wide spectrum of issues related to business process development, modeling, and support. They are grouped into sections on innovative representations for knowledge-intensive processes; business process management in practice; analysis of business process models; model-based business process analysis; flexible business process management; improvement and change patterns; and process model repositories . The 10 full and 2 short papers accepted for EMMSAD were chosen from 27 submissions and focus on exploring, evaluating, and enhancing current information modeling methods and methodologies. They are grouped in sections on advanced modelling; capturing design knowledge; method engineering; modelling process; specialized modelling; and modelling experiences.

This book collects and integrates the results of an extensive research program conducted by the authors over the past two decades. It spans the disciplines of transportation science, operations management, and behavioral economics, and consists of 16 chapters previously published in peer-reviewed academic journals and grouped under three topical sections: queueing, route choice, and departure time. The book focuses on strategic interactions in directed networks and laboratory experiments carefully designed to test the descriptive validity of the underlying theoretical models. The research question that unifies the chapters is: do the conclusions of theoretical literature account for the decisions of network users in controlled laboratory experiments? With several major qualifications, this book answers this question affirmatively.