Decision Trees For Decision Making

This book is about making machine learning models and their decisions interpretable. After exploring the concepts of interpretability, you will learn about simple, interpretable models such as decision trees, decision rules and linear regression. Later chapters focus on general model-agnostic methods for interpreting black box models like feature importance and accumulated local effects and explaining individual predictions with Shapley values and LIME. All interpretation methods are explained in depth and discussed critically. How do they work under the hood? What are their strengths and weaknesses? How can their outputs be interpreted? This book will enable you to select and correctly apply the interpretation method that is most suitable for your machine learning project.

Making Decisions Second Edition D.V. Lindley Formerly Professor of Statistics, University College London This book looks at the problems involved in decision-making and argues that there is only one logical way to make a decision. By the use of three basic principles--assigning probabilities to the uncertain events; assigning utilities to the possible consequences; and choosing that decision that maximizes expected utility--decisions can be reached more efficiently and with less disagreement. It shows that only maximization of expected utility leads to sensible decision-making. This extensively revised second edition uses only elementary mathematics and will be of interest to all those concerned with decision-making and its consequences. Since his retirement from University College London in 1977 Professor Lindley has held visiting appointments at Berkeley, University of Florida, George Washington University, University of Sao Paulo, University of Wisconsin, Monash University, Australia, and University of Canterbury, New Zealand. Contents * Decisions and uncertain events * A numerical measure for uncertainty * The laws of probability * A numerical measure for consequences * The utility of money * Bayes' Theorem * Value of information * Decision trees * The assessment of probabilities and utilities * An appreciation Appendix Answers to exercises Glossary of Symbols Subject Index

Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design describes an approach to facing two fundamental and unavoidable issues brought about by climate change uncertainty in water resources planning and project design. The first is a risk assessment problem. The second relates to risk management. This book provides background on the risks relevant in water systems planning, the different approaches to scenario definition in water system planning, and an introduction to the decision-scaling methodology upon which the decision tree is based. The decision tree is described as a scientifically defensible, repeatable, direct and clear method for demonstrating the robustness of a project to climate change. While applicable to all water resources projects, it allocates effort to projects in a way that is consistent with their potential sensitivity to climate risk. The process was designed to be hierarchical, with different stages or phases of analysis triggered based on the findings of the previous phase. An application example is provided followed by a descriptions of some of the tools available for decision making under uncertainty and methods available for climate risk management. The tool was designed for the World Bank but can be applicable in other scenarios where similar challenges arise.

Bring a new degree of interconnectivity to your world by building your own intelligent robots Key Features Leverage fundamentals of AI and robotics Work through use cases to implement various machine learning algorithms Explore Natural Language Processing (NLP) concepts for efficient decision making in robots Book DescriptionArtificial Intelligence for Robotics starts with an introduction to Robot Operating Systems (ROS), Python, robotic fundamentals, and the software and tools that are required to start out with robotics. You will learn robotics concepts that will be useful for making decisions, along with basic navigation skills. As you make your way through the chapters, you will learn about object recognition and genetic algorithms, which will teach your robot to identify and pick up an irregular object. With plenty of use cases throughout, you will explore natural language processing (NLP) and machine learning techniques to further enhance your robot. In the concluding chapters, you will learn about path planning and goal-oriented programming, which will help your robot prioritize tasks. By the end of this book, you will have learned to give your robot an artificial personality using simulated intelligence.What you will learn Get started with robotics and artificial intelligence Apply simulation techniques to give your robot an artificial personality Understand object recognition using neural networks and supervised learning techniques Pick up objects using genetic algorithms for manipulation Teach your robot to listen using NLP via an expert system Use machine learning and computer vision to teach your robot how to avoid obstacles Understand path planning, decision trees, and search algorithms in order to enhance your robot Who this book is for If you have basic knowledge about robotics and want to build or enhance your existing robot’s intelligence, then Artificial Intelligence for Robotics is for you. This book is also for enthusiasts who want to gain knowledge of AI and robotics.