Discrete Choice Analysis

Discrete Choice Analysis presents these results in such a way that they are fully accessible to the range of students and professionals who are involved in modelling demand and consumer behavior in general or specifically in transportation - whether from the point of view of the design of transit systems, urban and transport economics, public policy, operations research, or systems management and planning. The methods of discrete choice analysis and their applications in the modelling of transportation systems constitute a comparatively new field that has largely evolved over the past 15 years. Since its inception, however, the field has developed rapidly, and this is the first text and reference work to cover the material systematically, bringing together the scattered and often inaccessible results for graduate students and professionals. Discrete Choice Analysis presents these results in such a way that they are fully accessible to the range of students and professionals who are involved in modelling demand and consumer behavior in general or specifically in transportation - whether from the point of view of the design of transit systems, urban and transport economics, public policy, operations research, or systems management and planning. The introductory chapter presents the background of discrete choice analysis and context of transportation demand forecasting. Subsequent chapters cover, among other topics, the theories of individual choice behavior, binary and multinomial choice models, aggregate forecasting techniques, estimation methods, tests used in the process of model development, sampling theory, the nested-logit model, and systems of models. Discrete Choice Analysis is ninth in the MIT Press Series in Transportation Studies, edited by Marvin Manheim.

This book describes the new generation of discrete choice methods, focusing on the many advances that are made possible by simulation. Researchers use these statistical methods to examine the choices that consumers, households, firms, and other agents make. Each of the major models is covered: logit, generalized extreme value, or GEV (including nested and cross-nested logits), probit, and mixed logit, plus a variety of specifications that build on these basics. Simulation-assisted estimation procedures are investigated and compared, including maximum stimulated likelihood, method of simulated moments, and method of simulated scores. Procedures for drawing from densities are described, including variance reduction techniques such as anithetics and Halton draws. Recent advances in Bayesian procedures are explored, including the use of the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and its variant Gibbs sampling. The second edition adds chapters on endogeneity and expectation-maximization (EM) algorithms. No other book incorporates all these fields, which have arisen in the past 25 years. The procedures are applicable in many fields, including energy, transportation, environmental studies, health, labor, and marketing.

A fully updated second edition of this popular introduction to applied choice analysis, written for graduate students, researchers, professionals and consultants.

This open access book offers up-to-date advice and practical guidance on how to undertake a discrete choice experiment as a tool for environmental valuation. It discusses crucial issues in designing, implementing and analysing choice experiments. Compiled by leading experts in the field, the book promotes discrete choice analysis in environmental valuation through a more solid scientific basis for research practice. Instead of providing strict guidelines, the book helps readers avoid common mistakes often found in applied work. It is based on the collective reflections of the scientific network of researchers using discrete choice modelling in the field of environmental valuation (www.envecho.com).

Table of contents

Originally published in 1981. Discrete-choice modelling is an area of econometrics where significant advances have been made at the research level. This book presents an overview of these advances, explaining the theory underlying the model, and explores its various applications. It shows how operational choice models can be used, and how they are particularly useful for a better understanding of consumer demand theory. It discusses particular problems connected with the model and its use, and reports on the authors’ own empirical research. This is a comprehensive survey of research developments in discrete choice modelling and its applications.

Every one relies on some kind of transportation system nearly every day. Go ing to work, shopping, dropping children at school and many other cultural or social activities imply leaving home, and using some form of transportation, which we expect tobe eflicient and reliable. Of course, efliciency and reliabil ity do not occur by chance, but require careful and often relatively complex planning by transportation system managers, both in the public and private sectors. It has long been recognized that mathematics, and, more specifically, op erations research is an important tool of this planning process. However, the range of skills required to cover both fields, even partially, is very large, and the opportunities to gather people with this very diverse expertise are too few. The organization of the NATO Advanced Studies Institute on "Opera tions Research and Decision Aid Methodologies in Traflic and Transportation Management" in March 1997 in Balatonfüred, Hungary, was therefore more than welcome and the group of people that gathered for a very studious two weeks on the shores of the beautiful lake Balaton did really enjoy the truly multidisciplinary and high scientific level of the meeting. The purpose of the present volume is to report, in a chronological order, the various questions that were considered by the lecturers and the' students at the institute. After a general introduction to the topic, the first week focused on issues related to traflic modeling, mostly in an urban context.

Almost without exception, everything human beings undertake involves a choice. In recent years there has been a growing interest in the development and application of quantitative statistical methods to study choices made by individuals with the purpose of gaining a better understanding both of how choices are made and of forecasting future choice responses. In this primer the authors provide an unintimidating introduction to the main techniques of choice analysis and include detail on themes such as data collection and preparation, model estimation and interpretation and the design of choice experiments. A companion website to the book provides practice data sets and software to estimate the main discrete choice models such as multinomial logit, nested logit and mixed logit. This primer will be an invaluable resource to students as well as of immense value to consultants and professionals, researchers and anyone else interested in choice analysis and modelling.