Discrete Time Markov Chains

Focusing on discrete-time-scale Markov chains, the contents of this book are an outgrowth of some of the authors' recent research. The motivation stems from existing and emerging applications in optimization and control of complex hybrid Markovian systems in manufacturing, wireless communication, and financial engineering. Much effort in this book is devoted to designing system models arising from these applications, analyzing them via analytic and probabilistic techniques, and developing feasible computational algorithms so as to reduce the inherent complexity. This book presents results including asymptotic expansions of probability vectors, structural properties of occupation measures, exponential bounds, aggregation and decomposition and associated limit processes, and interface of discrete-time and continuous-time systems. One of the salient features is that it contains a diverse range of applications on filtering, estimation, control, optimization, and Markov decision processes, and financial engineering. This book will be an important reference for researchers in the areas of applied probability, control theory, operations research, as well as for practitioners who use optimization techniques. Part of the book can also be used in a graduate course of applied probability, stochastic processes, and applications.

Primarily an introduction to the theory of stochastic processes at the undergraduate or beginning graduate level, the primary objective of this book is to initiate students in the art of stochastic modelling. However it is motivated by significant applications and progressively brings the student to the borders of contemporary research. Examples are from a wide range of domains, including operations research and electrical engineering. Researchers and students in these areas as well as in physics, biology and the social sciences will find this book of interest.

This book is about discrete-time, time-homogeneous, Markov chains (Mes) and their ergodic behavior. To this end, most of the material is in fact about stable Mes, by which we mean Mes that admit an invariant probability measure. To state this more precisely and give an overview of the questions we shall be dealing with, we will first introduce some notation and terminology. Let (X,B) be a measurable space, and consider a X-valued Markov chain ~. = {~k' k = 0, 1, ... } with transition probability function (t.pJ.) P(x, B), i.e., P(x, B) := Prob (~k+1 E B I ~k = x) for each x E X, B E B, and k = 0,1, .... The Me ~. is said to be stable if there exists a probability measure (p.m.) /.l on B such that (*) VB EB. /.l(B) = Ix /.l(dx) P(x, B) If (*) holds then /.l is called an invariant p.m. for the Me ~. (or the t.p.f. P).

Introduction to Probability Models, Tenth Edition, provides an introduction to elementary probability theory and stochastic processes. There are two approaches to the study of probability theory. One is heuristic and nonrigorous, and attempts to develop in students an intuitive feel for the subject that enables him or her to think probabilistically. The other approach attempts a rigorous development of probability by using the tools of measure theory. The first approach is employed in this text. The book begins by introducing basic concepts of probability theory, such as the random variable, conditional probability, and conditional expectation. This is followed by discussions of stochastic processes, including Markov chains and Poison processes. The remaining chapters cover queuing, reliability theory, Brownian motion, and simulation. Many examples are worked out throughout the text, along with exercises to be solved by students. This book will be particularly useful to those interested in learning how probability theory can be applied to the study of phenomena in fields such as engineering, computer science, management science, the physical and social sciences, and operations research. Ideally, this text would be used in a one-year course in probability models, or a one-semester course in introductory probability theory or a course in elementary stochastic processes. New to this Edition: 65% new chapter material including coverage of finite capacity queues, insurance risk models and Markov chains Contains compulsory material for new Exam 3 of the Society of Actuaries containing several sections in the new exams Updated data, and a list of commonly used notations and equations, a robust ancillary package, including a ISM, SSM, and test bank Includes SPSS PASW Modeler and SAS JMP software packages which are widely used in the field Hallmark features: Superior writing style Excellent exercises and examples covering the wide breadth of coverage of probability topics Real-world applications in engineering, science, business and economics

This book provides an undergraduate-level introduction to discrete and continuous-time Markov chains and their applications, with a particular focus on the first step analysis technique and its applications to average hitting times and ruin probabilities. It also discusses classical topics such as recurrence and transience, stationary and limiting distributions, as well as branching processes. It first examines in detail two important examples (gambling processes and random walks) before presenting the general theory itself in the subsequent chapters. It also provides an introduction to discrete-time martingales and their relation to ruin probabilities and mean exit times, together with a chapter on spatial Poisson processes. The concepts presented are illustrated by examples, 138 exercises and 9 problems with their solutions.

Intended to anyone interested in numerical computing and data science: students, researchers, teachers, engineers, analysts, hobbyists... Basic knowledge of Python/NumPy is recommended. Some skills in mathematics will help you understand the theory behind the computational methods.

The book covers basic concepts such as random experiments, probability axioms, conditional probability, and counting methods, single and multiple random variables (discrete, continuous, and mixed), as well as moment-generating functions, characteristic functions, random vectors, and inequalities; limit theorems and convergence; introduction to Bayesian and classical statistics; random processes including processing of random signals, Poisson processes, discrete-time and continuous-time Markov chains, and Brownian motion; simulation using MATLAB and R.

Markov chains are central to the understanding of random processes. This is not only because they pervade the applications of random processes, but also because one can calculate explicitly many quantities of interest. This textbook, aimed at advanced undergraduate or MSc students with some background in basic probability theory, focuses on Markov chains and quickly develops a coherent and rigorous theory whilst showing also how actually to apply it. Both discrete-time and continuous-time chains are studied. A distinguishing feature is an introduction to more advanced topics such as martingales and potentials in the established context of Markov chains. There are applications to simulation, economics, optimal control, genetics, queues and many other topics, and exercises and examples drawn both from theory and practice. It will therefore be an ideal text either for elementary courses on random processes or those that are more oriented towards applications.