Does Freer Trade Really Lead To Productivity Growth

Manufacturing is intensive in the use of reproducible factors and exhibits greater technological dynamism than primary production. As such, its growth is central to long-run development in low-income countries. African countries are latecomers to industrialization, and barriers to manufacturing growth, including those that limit trade, have been slow to come down. What factors contribute most to increases in output and productivity growth in African manufacturing? Recent trade–industrial organization theory suggests that trade liberalization should raise average total factor productivity (TFP) among manufacturing firms (Melitz 2003). However, these predictions are conditional on maintained assumptions about the nature of industries, factor markets, and trade patterns that may not be appropriate in a developing-country setting. Manufacturing firms are heterogeneous, so the analysis demands disaggregated data. We use firm-level data from the World Bank’s Regional Program on Enterprise Development, covering Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, and Tanzania for 1991–2003. Among other things, the data distinguish exports by destination (Africa and the rest of the world), which is important due to the spread of intra-African regional trade agreements (RTAs). Econometric results confirm well-known relationships, such as a positive association between export intensity and TFP, which implies that more productive firms are more likely to select in to exporting. However, we also find the destination of exports to be important. Many exporters have experienced declining TFP growth rates, which have occurred at different rates depending on the country and the export destination. The evidence for “learning by exporting” is thus mixed. These results add a new dimension to controversies over the development implications of trade liberalization and the promotion of intra-African RTAs.

The Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (FTA) provides a unique window on the effects of trade liberalization. It was an unusually clean trade policy exercise in that it was not bundled into a larger package of macroeconomic or market reforms. This paper uses the 1989-96 Canadian FTA experience to examine the short-run adjustment costs and long-run efficiency gains that flow from trade liberalization. For industries subject to large tariff cuts (these are typically low-end' manufacturing industries), the short-run costs included a 15% decline in employment and about a 10% decline in both output and the number of plants. Balanced against these large short-run adjustment costs were long-run labour productivity gains of 17% or a spectacular 1.0% per year. Although good capital stock and plant-level data are lacking, an attempt is made to identify the sources of FTA-induced labour productivity growth. Surprisingly, this growth is not due to rising output per plant, increased investment, or market share shifts to high-productivity plants. Instead, half of the 17% labour productivity growth appears due to favourable plant turnover (entry and exit) and rising technical efficiency

The paper investigates the productivity effects of the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement on Canadian manufacturing. It finds that Canadian tariff cuts increased exit rates among moderately productive non-exporting plants. This led to the reallocation of market share towards highly productive plants, which explains the aggregate productivity gains observed when Canadian tariffs were reduced. The U.S. tariff cuts led to the within-plant productivity gains in exporters and, especially, new entrants into the export market. Any lack of output responses and labor-shedding as a consequence of the FTA was experienced by non-exporting plants, while exporters captured the gains from the FTA.

One of the most enduring questions in economics involves how a nation could accelerate the pace of its economic development. One of the most enduring answers to this question is to promote exports -either because doing so directly influences development via encouraging production of goods for export, or because export promotion permits accumulation of foreign exchange which permits importation of high-quality goods and services, which can in turn be used to expand the nation's production possibilities. In either case, growth is said to be export-led; the latter case is the so-called "two-gap" hypothesis (McKinnon, 1964; Findlay, 1973). The early work on export-led growth consisted of static cross-country com parisons (Michaely, 1977; Balassa, 1978; Tyler, 1981; Kormendi and Meguire, 1985). These studies generally concluded that there is strong evidence in favour of export-led growth because export growth and income growth are highly correlated. However, Kravis pointed out in 1970 that the question is an essen tially dynamic one: as he put it, are exports the handmaiden or the engine of growth? To make this determination one needs to look at time series to see whether or not exports are driving income. This approach has been taken in a number of papers (Jung and Marshall, 1985; Chow, 1987; Serletis, 1992; Kunst and Marin, 1989; Marin, 1992; Afxentiou and Serletis, 1991), designed to assess whether or not individual countries exhibit statistically significant evidence of export-led growth using Granger causality tests.

The contemporary orthodox view of world trade has centred, generally unchallenged, on the ideas of free trade, based on the theoretical construct of comparative advantage. This book will engage in a critique of the orthodox position based on the underlying theoretical economic construct, the historical development of the now developed economies and the morally unsustainable position of the free-trade regime. The author examines alternatives such as Most Favoured Nation and Preferential Trading Agreements before making the argument in favour of Asymmetric Trading, where the underdeveloped economies can develop behind tariff barriers and quotas, whilst the triadic nations maintain a lack of barriers to the exports of these economies. He outlines how such a trading regime would be mutually beneficial in the long term, in the sense that development through industrialisation takes place and the increase in GDP per capita would allow markets for exports to be sustainable, thus widening the market for the goods and services of the developed economies. However, the author demonstrates that free trade actually increases the development gap by maintaining the status quo in terms of the underdeveloped economies specialising in and exporting low value-added primary products and importing high value-added manufactures. The book analyses contemporary and historical data to illustrate how an alternative trading regime can be truly advantageous to both the developed and underdeveloped regions of the world: a global trading regime that is capable of increasing GDP in a sustainable manner without transferring a surplus from the poor to the rich nations and without a long-term commitment on the part of the developed nations to altruism.

Productivity dispersion across countries has led to several studies on the determinants of firm level productivity and the role of macroeconomic policies in determining productivity. In this paper, we investigate the effect of fiscal consolidation on firm level productivity in 12 advanced economies by combining an updated dataset of fiscal consolidation measures with firm level productivity. We find that fiscal consolidation (i.e., discretionary tax hikes and spending cuts), is detrimental to firm level productivity in advanced economies. We also find that high levels of fiscal consolidation are particularly harmful to firm level productivity compared to lower levels of fiscal consolidation. Furthermore, we find that tax based fiscal consolidation hinders firm level productivity more compared to spending based fiscal consolidation. This implies that the size and composition of fiscal consolidation matter in understanding the relationship between fiscal consolidation and firm level productivity.

This flagship publication examines different aspects of the nature and role of international trade in the era of hyperglobalization and considers related policy challenges that will need to be addressed if trade is to contribute to a more stable and inclusive global economic order. Research provides authoritative data and analysis on trade, investment, finance and technology. UNCTAD offers solutions to the major challenges facing developing countries, particularly the poorest and most vulnerable nations. Beyond tailored analysis and policy recommendations, UNCTAD research also generates global standards that govern responsible sovereign lending and borrowing, investment, entrepreneurship, competition and consumer protection and trade rules.