Dynamics Of Commodity Production Cycles

(Now available from Productivity Press, Cambridge, Mass.)

The air transport industry has high economic impact; it supports more than 60 million jobs worldwide. Since the early years of commercial air travel, passenger numbers have grown tremendously. However, for decades airlines’ financial results have been swinging between profits and losses. The airline industry’s aggregate net average profit between 1970 and 2010 was close to zero, which implies bankruptcies and layoffs in downturns. The profit cycle’s amplitude has been rising over time, which means that problems have become increasingly severe and also shows that the industry may not have learned from the past. More stable financial results could not only facilitate airline management decisions and improve investors’ confidence but also preserve employment. This book offers a thorough understanding of the airline profit cycle’s causes and drivers, and it presents measures to achieve a higher and more stable profitability level. This is the first in-depth examination of the airline profit cycle. The airline industry is modelled as a complex dynamic system, which is used for quantitative simulations of ‘what if’ scenarios. These experiments reveal that the general economic environment, such as GDP or fuel price developments, influence the airline industry’s profitability pattern as well as certain regulations or aircraft manufactures’ policies. Yet despite all circumstances, simulations show that airlines’ own management decisions are sufficient to generate higher and more stable profits in the industry. This book is useful for aviation industry decision makers, investors, policy makers, and researchers because it explains why the airline industry earns or loses money. This knowledge will advance forecasting and market intelligence. Furthermore, the book offers practitioners different suggestions to sustainably improve the airline industry’s profitability. The book is also recommended as a case study for system analysis as well as industry cyclicality at graduate or postgraduate level for courses such as engineering, economics, or management.

System Dynamics is a component of Encyclopedia of Technology, Information, and Systems Management Resources in the global Encyclopedia of Life Support Systems (EOLSS), which is an integrated compendium of twenty one Encyclopedias. The world is facing a wide range of increasingly complex, dynamic problems in the public and private arenas alike. System dynamics discipline is an attempt to address such dynamic, long-term policy problems. Applications cover a very wide spectrum, including national economic problems, supply chains, project management, educational problems, energy systems, sustainable development, politics, psychology, medical sciences, health care, and many other areas. This theme provides a comprehensive overview of system dynamics methodology, including its conceptual / philosophical framework, as well as the technical aspects of modeling and analysis. System dynamics can address the fundamental structural causes of the long-term dynamic contemporary socio-economic problems. Its "systems" perspective challenges the barriers that separate disciplines. The interdisciplinary and systemic approach of system dynamics could be critical in dealing with the increasingly complex problems of our modern world in this new century. These two volumes are aimed at the following five major target audiences: University and College students Educators, Professional practitioners, Research personnel and Policy analysts, managers, and decision makers and NGOs.

This book is a collection of reviews of microcomputer programs of special relevance to those people around the world who are responsible for the management of the current and future affairs and business of their countries.