Dynamics Of Rural Growth In Bangladesh

The rural economy in Bangladesh has powerfully advanced economic growth and substantially reduced poverty, especially since 2000, but the remarkable transformation and unprecedented dynamism in rural Bangladesh remain an underexplored, underappreciated, and largely untold story. Dynamics of Rural Growth in Bangladesh: Sustaining Poverty Reduction tells that story and inquires what specific actions Bangladesh might take—given the residual poverty and persistent malnutrition—to accelerate and channel its rural dynamism to sustain the gains in eliminating poverty, achieving shared prosperity, and advancing national aspirations to achieve middle-income status. The central element of this study, undertaken with the Government of Bangladesh Planning Commission to address key questions elicited through extensive consultation, is an empirical analysis that illuminates the underlying dynamics of rural growth, particularly the role of agriculture and its relationship to the nonfarm economy. Using all sources of data available for the macro-, meso-, and microhousehold levels, the analysis provides new evidence on changes in the rural economy and the principal drivers of rural incomes. It also examines market performance for high-value agricultural products and agriculture†“nutrition linkages, based on new surveys and analysis. The resulting evidence, examined in light of the rich knowledge of rural development in Bangladesh, is used to delineate the implications for policy and the strategic priorities for sustaining future rural development, poverty reduction, food security, and nutrition. The effects of policy reforms, changes in technology, and investments in infrastructure and human capital described here, along with the persistent enterprise of rural Bangladeshi households, offer a compelling case study of how mutually reinforcing actions can trigger the highly-sought-after virtuous cycle of rural development. The findings clearly demonstrate the pro-poor nature of agricultural growth and its catalytic role in stimulating the rural nonfarm economy. They show that households have no linear or predictable pathway out of poverty; instead, they wisely employ a combination of farm and nonfarm income strategies to climb out of, and then stay out of, poverty. The results represent a strong contribution to the global thinking on rural transformation and on how agriculture in particular sustains the economic momentum that fosters poverty reduction and more widespread prosperity.

Based on an individual action and systems theoretical approach, this study provides new insights into the development dynamics of the Bangladesh agrarian society. The work explains why and how Bangladesh's rural economy and society has been able to maintain its poverty-level equilibrium.

The study of poverty dynamics is important for effective poverty alleviation policies because the changes in income poverty are also accompanied by changes in socioeconomic factors such as literacy, gender parity in school, health care, infant mortality, and asset holdings. In order to examine the dynamics of poverty, information from 1,212 households in 32 rural villages in Bangladesh was collected in December 2004 and December 2009. This book reports the analytical results from quantitative and qualitative surveys from the same households at two points of time, which yielded the panel data for understanding the changes in situations of poverty. Efforts have been made to include the most recent research from diverse disciplines including economics, statistics, anthropology, education, health care, and vulnerability study. Specifically, findings from logistic regression analysis, polychoric principal component analysis, kernel density function, income mobility with the help of the Markov chain model, and child nutrition status from anthropometric measures have been presented. Asset holdings and liabilities of the chronically poor as well as those of three other economic groups (the descending non-poor, the ascending poor, and the non-poor) are analyzed statistically. The degrees of vulnerability to poverty are examined by years of schooling, landholding size, gender of household head, social capital, and occupation. The multiple logistic regression model was used to identify important risk factors for a household’s vulnerability. In 2009, some of the basic characteristics of the chronically poor were: higher percentage and number of female-headed households, higher dependency ratio, lower levels of education, fewer years of schooling, and limited employment. There was a low degree of mobility of households from one poverty status to another in the period 2004-2009, implying that the process of economic development and high economic growth in the macroeconomy during this time failed to improve the poverty situation in rural Bangladesh.

This paper analyzes poverty dynamics in rural Bangladesh using a nationally representative panel dataset of 5,260 rural households interviewed in 2011/12 and 2015. We find that education, savings, assets, non-farm employment, substantial safety net transfers, and women’s empowerment are key factors in breaking persistent poverty; and savings, non-farm engagement, and substantial safety net transfers prevent households from falling into poverty. The results are consistent across multinomial logit, logit, and simultaneous quantile regression models. Thus, policies and programs that address the determinants of persistent and transient poverty identified in this study hold promise for sustained poverty reduction in rural Bangladesh.

Contributed articles.

The economic and social development that Bangladesh has achieved in the past two decades has made Bangladesh a development paradox. This book tries to explain this paradox through a political economy lens. The book explains the linkages between the state, changing society and emerging private sector, and examines whether the social transformation taking place in Bangladesh has the potential to live up to the expectations of a middle- income country. The early part of the book unravels the myriad relations between the state, society and market to project the aspirations of a newly independent nation. It analyzes how political turmoil, militarization of politics, politicization of institutions, reforms initiatives, industrial and social development policies, and the power nexus influenced the nature of the political economy of Bangladesh. The book goes on to examine how domestic appetite for capital and raw materials, the digital revolution, and the capacity of the local market to absorb expanded economic activities have created an environment that catalyzes innovation and entrepreneurship. The book also explains how the country has attempted to transform from an agrarian to a manufacturing- based economy, with rapid growth in the ready- made garment industry, pisciculture, pharmaceuticals and the ICT sector. Bangladesh’s journey from an emerging economy towards a developed country would interest those researching on development economics and those in policy making.

The agriculture sector can play an important role in poverty reduction and sustained growth in Afghanistan, primarily through job creation, improved productivity, and inclusiveness. Using an 'agricultural jobs lens' and multidimensional approach, this report explores the sector's direct and indirect roles in explaining the dynamics of rural employment. The report critically examines three dimensions. First, it evaluates the current jobs structure in rural areas and finds that rural jobs are concentrated in cereal agriculture, especially in wheat, which reflects why the returns from jobs in agriculture are low in Afghanistan. Second, it analyzes the inclusive nature of agriculture jobs for vulnerable groups such as women, youth, those who are landless, and the bottom 40 percent of income earners. The analysis finds that although agriculture jobs are inclusive, many women and youth participate as voluntary family workers because they are unable to access markets and/or find paid jobs in the nonfarm sector. Third, the report evaluates the role of public and private sector interventions in supporting job creation in agriculture. It was argued that interventions can work and that there is significant scope to scale them up. Overall, the report exhibits many insights about the state of Afghanistan's rural labor market and provides guidance for formulating effective job-creation policies for the rural population. The key recommendations provide a pathway to achieve sustained and inclusive job growth through diversification toward high-value crops and livestock, linking farmers to markets through continued investment in connectivity and rural infrastructure, a balanced development strategy for an enabling environment for farm and nonfarm sectors, and strengthening the private sector presence in agriculture and its linkage with the public sector to agribusiness. In tandem, it is important to improve the design structure of jobs measurement for rural jobs, especially jobs in agriculture tailored to sectoral context.