Economic Forecasting And Policy

Regional economic models are the key to predicting the effects of transportation, economic development, energy, fiscal and environmental policies. Despite this, the principal regional economic policy analysis model used throughout the United States by government agencies, universities, and the private sector has not been presented in a book until now. The approach to building, understanding and using regional models presented in Regional Economic Models: A Systematic Approach to Forecasting and Policy Analysis is progressive. It begins with the simplest possible models and concludes with a full presentation of the leading model used by policy makers today. The full details are presented along with facilitating software, which is made available so that the reader can build a prototype model for any state or country and can perform policy simulations with full operational models for a sample area. Policy studies are discussed that have been carried out with the model, as well as the range of ways in which policies can be tested through policy simulations. The necessary background is developed for understanding the ways in which models can be used to improve the basis upon which policies are evaluated, as well as the sensitivity of the predicted effects to the model chosen for the analysis. The presentation is multifaceted and includes equations, diagrams and numerical examples. The professional literature is integrated with introductory materials to produce the first comprehensive book on regional modeling that extends from economic base models to modeling advances that are currently being published in economic journals.

Economic Forecasting provides a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic forecasting. The focus is first on a wide range of theories as well as empirical methods: business cycle analysis, time series methods, macroeconomic models, medium and long-run projections, fiscal and financial forecasts, and sectoral forecasting.

The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues. Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics

How to interpret and evaluate economic forecasts and the uncertainties inherent in them.

Economic Forecasting provides a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic forecasting. The focus is first on a wide range of theories as well as empirical methods: business cycle analysis, time series methods, macroeconomic models, medium and long-run projections, fiscal and financial forecasts, and sectoral forecasting. In addition, the book addresses the main issues surrounding the use of forecasts (accuracy, communication challenges) and their policy implications. A tour of the economic data and forecasting institutions is also provided.

Economic Forecasting provides a comprehensive overview of macroeconomic forecasting. The focus is first on a wide range of theories as well as empirical methods: business cycle analysis, time series methods, macroeconomic models, medium and long-run projections, fiscal and financial forecasts, and sectoral forecasting. In addition, the book addresses the main issues surrounding the use of forecasts (accuracy, communication challenges) and their policy implications. A tour of the economic data and forecasting institutions is also provided.

Daub discusses both the rationale for the practice of forecasting and the methods commonly used, and traces the history of aggregate economic forecasting in Canada, examining the structure, conduct, and performance of the present forecasting "industry," particularly the nature of demand and supply, pricing and promotion considerations, and profits and efficiency. He also examinines factors which influence the accuracy of forecasts and reviews the record of Canadian forecasting. In the last chapters Daub considers public policy aspects of economic forecasting. Should forecasters be held liable for inaccurate forecasts? Should they be subject to regulation? He concludes by observing that the practice of forecasting is inextricably linked to our sense of time, as is the very different exercise of time-keeping with clocks or watches. It is socially complex, highly institutionalized, and informed by the many and varied visions we carry of the world. Through it we attempt to organize and shape our individual and collective futures. Until uncertainty is eliminated from human affairs, forecasting will continue to be a necessary social practice, despite recurring bouts of cynicism as to its worth.