Energy Modeling For Policymaking

The IEA held a series of three seminars between May 1996 and October 1997 on the insights from modelling relevant to energy and climate change. The seminars brought together key analysts, government and business experts, and policy makers from IEA member countries directly involved with the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The participants' contributions and insights deserve strong acknowledgement. Modelling offers an indispensable analytical tool to evaluate how energy systems could best respond to restrictions on carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gas emissions, and to identify the most cost-effective and resilient policy instruments to reach these goals. It can provide key perceptions for analysis of comprehensive packages of economic and non-economic policy instruments within a consistent framework. This book maps the main approaches of energy modelling, their assumptions and their logic, to help policy makers and non-modellers understand and use its contributions. The text draws on papers prepared for the seminars by the IEA Secretariat, presentations given by participants and some general insights which emerged on economic modelling of climate change. In line with the main objective of the seminars, it avoids 'peer review' of different climate change models or specific policy suggestions, attempting instead to bridge the gap between modelling and policy making.

This book presents the energy system roadmaps necessary to limit global temperature increase to below 2°C, in order to avoid the catastrophic impacts of climate change. It provides a unique perspective on and critical understanding of the feasibility of a well-below-2°C world by exploring energy system pathways, technology innovations, behaviour change and the macro-economic impacts of achieving carbon neutrality by mid-century. The transformative changes in the energy transition are explored using energy systems models and scenario analyses that are applied to various cities, countries and at a global scale to offer scientific evidence to underpin complex policy decisions relating to climate change mitigation and interrelated issues like energy security and the energy–water nexus. It includes several chapters directly related to the Nationally Determined Contributions proposed in the context of the recent Paris Agreement on Climate Change. In summary, the book collates a range of concrete analyses at different scales from around the globe, revisiting the roles of countries, cities and local communities in pathways to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and make a well-below-2°C world a reality. A valuable source of information for energy modellers in both the industry and public sectors, it provides a critical understanding of both the feasibility of roadmaps to achieve a well-below-2°C world, and the diversity and wide applications of energy systems models. Encompassing behaviour changes; technology innovations; macro-economic impacts; and other environmental challenges, such as water, it is also of interest to energy economists and engineers, as well as economic modellers working in the field of climate change mitigation.

Energy plays a vital role in economic and social development. The analysis of energy issues and policy options is therefore a vital area of study. This book presents a hierarchical modelling scheme intended to support energy planning and policy analysis in developing countries. The authors introduce the concept of 'Integrated National energy Planning' (INEP), and examine the spreadsheet models, optimization models, and linear planning models which energy planners use. Environmental considerations are also introduced into the analysis. Techniques are then applied to two important energy subsectors, electricity and fuelwood, before problems of integration and policy implementation are discussed. Throughout the book, the authors examine actual practice in developing countries. Illustrative case material is drawn from Egypt, West Africa, Sudan, Pakistan, Colombia, India, Sri Lanka and Morocco. This book will be of interest to students and practitioners of energy planning, and to those concerned with the wider development implications of energy policy.

Microeconomic Modeling and Policy Analysis: Studies in Residential Energy Demand analyzes the aggregates and distributional impacts from alternative energy polices related to the energy demands of residential consumers. The book also analyzes the use of micro-simulation models in the study. The book examines three alternative energy policies and their possible impacts on the residential energy demand. The text describes models on energy use including general micro-simulation and micro-simulation as applied in ""Residential End-Use Energy Planning Systems"" (REEPS) and the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Residential Energy Consumption Model. The book describes REEPS as a model providing end-use specific forecasts of energy consumption at the household level. The text describes ORNL as a computationally simpler design but conceptually more complex one. The book then evaluates three different policy scenarios using each of these two models. The performance of REEPS and ORNL, as well as other dimensions of model projections, is examined. The implications regarding 1) policy analysis and 2) the use of micro simulation models are noted. The book then presents a table that summarizes the results of the comparative model evaluation. Energy policymakers, city and local government planning officials, development engineers, and environmentalists will find this book very relevant.

This open access book advocates for the Social Sciences and Humanities to be more involved in energy policymaking. It forms part of the European platform for energy-related Social Sciences and Humanities’ activities, and works on the premise that crossing disciplines is essential. All of its contributions are highly interdisciplinary, with each chapter grounded in at least three different Social Sciences and Humanities disciplines. These varying perspectives come together to cover an array of issues relevant to the energy transition, including: energy poverty, justice, political ecology, governance, behaviours, imaginaries, systems approaches, modelling, as well as the particular challenges faced by interdisciplinary work. As a whole, the book presents new ideas for future energy policy, particularly at the European level. It is a valuable resource for energy researchers interested in interdisciplinary and society-relevant perspectives. Those working outside the Social Sciences and Humanities will find this book an accessible way of learning more about how these subjects can constructively contribute to energy policy.