The Role Of Energy Modelling In Policy Formulation

The roles and applications of various modeling approaches, aimed at improving the usefulness of energy policy models in public decision making, are covered by this book. The development, validation, and applications of system dynamics and agent-based models in service of energy policy design and assessment in the 21st century is a key focus. A number of modeling approaches and models for energy policy, with a particular focus on low-carbon economic development of regions and states are covered. Chapters on system dynamics methodology, model-based theory, fuzzy system dynamics frame-work, and optimization modeling approach are presented, along with several chapters on future research opportunities for the energy policy modeling community. The use of model-based analysis and scenarios in energy policy design and assessment has seen phenomenal growth during the past several decades. In recent years, renewed concerns about climate change and energy security have posed unique modeling challenges. By utilizing the validation techniques and procedures which are effectively demonstrated in these contributions, researchers and practitioners in energy systems domain can increase the appeal and acceptance of their policy models.

Energy plays a vital role in economic and social development. The analysis of energy issues and policy options is therefore a vital area of study. This book presents a hierarchical modelling scheme intended to support energy planning and policy analysis in developing countries. The authors introduce the concept of 'Integrated National energy Planning' (INEP), and examine the spreadsheet models, optimization models, and linear planning models which energy planners use. Environmental considerations are also introduced into the analysis. Techniques are then applied to two important energy subsectors, electricity and fuelwood, before problems of integration and policy implementation are discussed. Throughout the book, the authors examine actual practice in developing countries. Illustrative case material is drawn from Egypt, West Africa, Sudan, Pakistan, Colombia, India, Sri Lanka and Morocco. This book will be of interest to students and practitioners of energy planning, and to those concerned with the wider development implications of energy policy.

This book presents the energy system roadmaps necessary to limit global temperature increase to below 2°C, in order to avoid the catastrophic impacts of climate change. It provides a unique perspective on and critical understanding of the feasibility of a well-below-2°C world by exploring energy system pathways, technology innovations, behaviour change and the macro-economic impacts of achieving carbon neutrality by mid-century. The transformative changes in the energy transition are explored using energy systems models and scenario analyses that are applied to various cities, countries and at a global scale to offer scientific evidence to underpin complex policy decisions relating to climate change mitigation and interrelated issues like energy security and the energy–water nexus. It includes several chapters directly related to the Nationally Determined Contributions proposed in the context of the recent Paris Agreement on Climate Change. In summary, the book collates a range of concrete analyses at different scales from around the globe, revisiting the roles of countries, cities and local communities in pathways to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and make a well-below-2°C world a reality. A valuable source of information for energy modellers in both the industry and public sectors, it provides a critical understanding of both the feasibility of roadmaps to achieve a well-below-2°C world, and the diversity and wide applications of energy systems models. Encompassing behaviour changes; technology innovations; macro-economic impacts; and other environmental challenges, such as water, it is also of interest to energy economists and engineers, as well as economic modellers working in the field of climate change mitigation.

The IEA held a series of three seminars between May 1996 and October 1997 on the insights from modelling relevant to energy and climate change. The seminars brought together key analysts, government and business experts, and policy makers from IEA member countries directly involved with the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The participants' contributions and insights deserve strong acknowledgement. Modelling offers an indispensable analytical tool to evaluate how energy systems could best respond to restrictions on carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gas emissions, and to identify the most cost-effective and resilient policy instruments to reach these goals. It can provide key perceptions for analysis of comprehensive packages of economic and non-economic policy instruments within a consistent framework. This book maps the main approaches of energy modelling, their assumptions and their logic, to help policy makers and non-modellers understand and use its contributions. The text draws on papers prepared for the seminars by the IEA Secretariat, presentations given by participants and some general insights which emerged on economic modelling of climate change. In line with the main objective of the seminars, it avoids 'peer review' of different climate change models or specific policy suggestions, attempting instead to bridge the gap between modelling and policy making.

'Increasing energy-efficiency is important because it offers the prospect of partly solving our climate change and energy security problems without pain. This book sheds further light on the issue, focusing on energy-extensive economic activities which, by sheer volume, collectively use a substantial amount of energy. That simple fact alone makes this book worthwhile, but there are many other gems.' Richard Tol, the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), Ireland This innovative book explores the adoption of energy-saving technologies and their impact on energy efficiency improvements. It contains a mix of theoretical and empirical contributions, and combines and compares economic and physical indicators to monitor and analyse trends in energy efficiency. The authors pay considerable attention to empirical research on the determinants of energy-saving investment including uncertainty, energy-price volatility and subsidies. They also discuss the role of energy modelling in policy design and the potential effect of energy policies on technology diffusion in energy-extensive sectors. Written from a multi-disciplinary perspective, this book will appeal to academics and graduates in the areas of energy-saving technologies, energy economics and natural resource economics, as well as policy-makers particularly those in energy policy.

Climate change and energy consumption are at the forefront of current environmental debate. While energy is essential to the functioning and survival of our societies, the environmental impact that energy consumption is having, particularly on climate change, is a growing concern and the design and practicalities of energy and energy-related environmental policies are under constant scrutiny. This innovative new book not only addresses the economic assessment of environmental and energy policies but also discusses the efficiency and distributional consequences these policies have for producers and consumers. With contributions from leading academics in the field, this comprehensive volume uses a variety of methodological approaches with which to explore a number of pertinent issues, including several studies on the EU Emission Trading System, as well as more advanced topics such as indeterminacy and optimal environmental public policies, energy-saving technological progress, oil shocks and energy transitions and policy design. Combining theoretical and empirical work, this timely book is a significant contribution to the existing literature and deals with issues at the frontier of current economic knowledge. Economic Modelling of Climate Change and Energy Policies is a unique and informative book and will have widespread appeal amongst scholars, students and policymakers.

Energy Modelling Studies and Conservation documents the proceedings of seminar of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe held in Washington D.C., on 24-28 March 1980. The volume begins with a Seminar Theme Paper that identifies background policy issues that lead to modeling; discusses points of view involved in energy policy modeling; defines the context of a set of energy conservation problems or questions being analyzed; and provides a forward-looking view of the subject and its problems. This is followed by 54 papers that are organized into three main topics: (1) energy models of major interest to individual countries; (2) the interaction between energy conservation measures and the economy; and (3) the international aspects of energy conservation models. The papers on Topic 1 cover forecasting methodologies, demand and conservation studies, and electricity and supply studies. The papers on Topic 2 present the experiences in countries such as Norway, UK, the USSR, and US. The papers on Topic 3 include studies on energy conservation policies in France, Germany, and Italy; and the MARKAL multi-period linear programming model for joint research and development in the field of new energy technologies of the 17 countries of the International Energy Agency.