Essays On Trading Strategy

This book directly focuses on finding optimal trading strategies in the real world and supports that with a well-defined theoretical foundation that allows trading strategy problems to be solved. Critically, it also delivers a menu of actual solutions that can be applied by traders with various risk profiles and objectives in markets that exhibit substantial tail risk. It shows how the Markowitz approach leads to excessive risk taking, and trader underperformance, in the real world. It summarizes the key features of Utility Theory, the deficiencies of the Sharpe Ratio as a statistic, and develops an optimal decision theory with fully developed examples for both 'Normal' and leptokurtotic distributions.

Do financial derivatives enhance or impede innovation? We aim to answer this question by examining the relationship between equity options markets and standard measures of firm innovation. Our baseline results show that firms with more options trading activity generate more patents and patent citations per dollar of R&D invested. We then investigate how more active options markets affect firms' innovation strategy. Our results suggest that firms with greater trading activity pursue a more creative, diverse and risky innovation strategy. We discuss potential underlying mechanisms and show that options appear to mitigate managerial career concerns that would induce managers to take actions that boost short-term performance measures. Finally, using several econometric specifications that try to account for the potential endogeneity of options trading, we argue that the positive effect of options trading on firm innovation is causal.

This book provides insights into the true nature of financial and economic data, and is a practical guide on how to analyze a variety of data sources. The focus of the book is on finance and economics, but it also illustrates the use of quantitative analysis and data science in many different areas. Lastly, the book includes practical information on how to store and process data and provides a framework for data driven reasoning about the world.The book begins with entertaining tales from Graham Giller's career in finance, starting with speculating in UK government bonds at the Oxford Post Office, accidentally creating a global instant messaging system that went 'viral' before anybody knew what that meant, on being the person who forgot to hit 'enter' to run a hundred-million dollar statistical arbitrage system, what he decoded from his brief time spent with Jim Simons, and giving Michael Bloomberg a tutorial on Granger Causality.The majority of the content is a narrative of analytic work done on financial, economics, and alternative data, structured around both Dr Giller's professional career and some of the things that just interested him. The goal is to stimulate interest in predictive methods, to give accurate characterizations of the true properties of financial, economic and alternative data, and to share what Richard Feynman described as 'The Pleasure of Finding Things Out.'

In his new book, Ernest Preeg analyzes international trade and investment in the 1990s and lays out a comprehensive U.S. trade strategy for the uncertain period ahead. He examines the influence of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and argues that economic globalization is beneficial to the U.S. economy in the short- to medium-term while raising important questions about national sovereignty and security over the longer term. Preeg believes regional free trade agreements will soon encompass the majority of world trade, but they can conflict with the WTO's multilateral objectives. The central challenge for U.S. trade strategy, then, is to integrate the now largely separate multilateral and regional tracks of the world trading system. The first essay assesses U.S. interests in economic globalization, the second examines recent steps toward free trade at the multilateral and regional levels, and the next three offer an in-depth critique of U.S. regional free trade objectives in the Americas, across the Pacific, and possibly with Europe. The final essay presents a multilateral/regional synthesis for going from here to free trade over the coming decade.

This thesis consists of three essays on international finance. The first essay is "Exchange rates and Fundamentals". A new open interest rate parity condition that takes account of economic fundamentals is developed from stochastic discount factors (SDFs) of two countries. Through this parity condition, business cycles or fundamentals are linked to exchange rates. Key empirical findings from this parity condition are as follows. First, this model beats the random walk hypothesis: economic fundamentals explain exchange rate movements for high interest rate currencies. Exchange rates of low interest rate currencies act like a random walk because they are less correlated with fundamentals owing to their low risk. For example, U.S. business cycles explain the direction of changes in exchange rates against the dollar. The same thing is true for Japan. Second, this model resolves the forward premium puzzle: the forward premium puzzle is not a general characteristic as regarded in previous studies. It happens when the risk awareness of investors is low, during economic expansions and for low risk currencies. The second essay is "Carry Trade and Global Financial Instability". Carry trade, an opportunistic investment strategy that takes advantage of interest rate differential across countries, is identified the cause of the large-scale depreciations of peripheral currencies in the later half of 2008. A simultaneous equations model, which is derived from a conceptual partial equilibrium model for a local foreign exchange market, is estimated from a cross-sectional sample. The results suggest that the larger appreciation of the yen than the dollar was brought about by a lack of the local supply of the yen rather than a more severe crunch of yen credits. The third essay is "The Economic Origin of Letters of Credit". This essay discusses the economic origin of letters of credit, an instrument widely used in international trade. A game theoretical analysis shows that letters of credit improve efficiency in trade settlements, increasing returns in trade. A few notable facts on letters of credit are discussed. First, the new institution is adopted by merchant banks to maximize their profits and in the process, an improvement in efficiency of international transactions is obtained. Second, the organization established by the legacy institution, bills of exchange, played a critical role in adopting the new institution. Third, the legal enforcement is not essential in this economic institution. Finally, two drivers are identified that improve efficiency of transactions: concentration and projection.

The Political Economy of the World Trading System is a comprehensive textbook account of the economics, institutional mechanics and politics of the world trading system. This third edition has been expanded and updated to cover developments in the World Trade Organisation (WTO) since its formation, including the Doha Round, presenting the essentials of trade negotiations and the WTO's rules and disciplines. The authors focus in particular on the WTO's role as the primary organisation through which trading nations manage their commercial interactions and the focal point for cooperation on policy responses to the rapidly changing global trading environment. It is the forum in which many features of the globalisation process are considered, and it currently faces an unprecedented set of challenges. The increasing importance of countries in Asia, Latin America and Africa in international trade relations, the revealed preference towards regionalism, intensification of trade conflicts, the role of business groups and NGOs in trade policy formation and negotiations, and pressures for more leadership in an institution threatened by paralysis are examples of issues that are discussed in some detail; all are critical for the operation of the system and for international business in the coming decade. This edition also includes numerous real-world examples to illustrate how the WTO impinges on business, workers and households, written from the perspective of managers and business associations. An insider's view of the institutional history of the WTO allows the authors to use a variety of conceptual tools to analyse the working of the WTO in a non-technical manner. Suggestions for Further Reading at the end of each chapter and an extensive bibliography make the volume suitable both for introductory and postgraduate courses on international economics and business, international relations, and international economic law.

One of Stephen T. Zamora’s former students entered law school with little idea about his future direction. He was fortunate to have a class on contracts with Zamora, Sten Gustafson writes, because “after that first year with him, my path became clear.” The professor made a topic intriguing that could easily be esoteric and tedious, and “opened my eyes to a career path that I could not have imagined otherwise.” This collection of 19 academic essays honors the memory of Dr. Stephen T. Zamora, the Leonard B. Rosenberg Professor of Law at the University of Houston Law Center, who died unexpectedly in 2016. An international authority in the field, Zamora’s areas of expertise were international trade and investments, international banking, conflicts of laws, international economic relations, Mexican law and US-Mexico relations. In addition, he was the driving force behind the establishment of the Center for U.S. and Mexican Law, the only one of its kind at a US law school. Written by colleagues and friends, the scholarly articles included in this volume reflect Zamora’s commitment to Mexican law, education and the promotion of US-Mexico cooperation. Topics such as regulating lawyers and legal education, environmental issues and dispute settlement are covered, and articles include “Economic Sovereignty and Oil and Gas Law,” “What Should Immigration Law Become?” and “Freer Trade between the United States and the European Union?” Through this collection, Zamora’s contemporaries aim to expand his legacy and continue his life-long work as an educator, attorney and uniter of peoples.