Estimating Markov Transition Matrices Using Proportions Data An Application To Credit Risk

This paper outlines a way to estimate transition matrices for use in credit risk modeling with a decades-old methodology that uses aggregate proportions data. This methodology is ideal for credit-risk applications where there is a paucity of data on changes in credit quality, especially at an aggregate level. Using a generalized least squares variant of the methodology, this paper provides estimates of transition matrices for the United States using both nonperforming loan data and interest coverage data. The methodology can be employed to condition the matrices on economic fundamentals and provide separate transition matrices for expansions and contractions, for example. The transition matrices can also be used as an input into other credit-risk models that use transition matrices as a basic building block.

This book is a collection of thoroughly refereed papers presented at the 25th IFIP TC 7 Conference on System Modeling and Optimization, held in Dresden, Germany, in September 2011. The 55 revised papers were carefully selected from numerous submissions. They are organized in the following topical sections: control of distributed parameter systems; stochastic optimization and control; stabilization, feedback, and model predictive control; flow control; shape and structural optimization; and applications and control of lumped parameter systems.

This book highlights the theory and practical applications of the chemical master equation (CME) approach for very large biochemical networks, which provides a powerful general framework for model building in a variety of biological networks. The aim of the book is to not only highlight advanced numerical solution methods for the CME, but also reveal their potential by means of practical examples. The case studies presented are mainly from biology; however, the applications from novel methods are discussed comprehensively, underlining the interdisciplinary approach in simulation and the potential of the chemical master equation approach for modelling bionetworks. The book is a valuable guide for researchers, graduate students, and professionals alike.

This book is a collection of thoroughly refereed papers presented at the 25th IFIP TC 7 Conference on System Modeling and Optimization, held in Dresden, Germany, in September 2011. The 55 revised papers were carefully selected from numerous submissions. They are organized in the following topical sections: control of distributed parameter systems; stochastic optimization and control; stabilization, feedback, and model predictive control; flow control; shape and structural optimization; and applications and control of lumped parameter systems.

Computer and Communication Technology has already changed our way of life and the society in a dramatic manner within the last two decades, whereas new technologies have emerged for turning each device into more intelligent and communicable devices. The book covers electronics, telecommunication, computers technology, A.I., Cryptography, Information and Network Security, Nano-electronics, Microelectronics, process control and automation and renewable energy.

In the last decade rating-based models have become very popular in credit risk management. These systems use the rating of a company as the decisive variable to evaluate the default risk of a bond or loan. The popularity is due to the straightforwardness of the approach, and to the upcoming new capital accord (Basel II), which allows banks to base their capital requirements on internal as well as external rating systems. Because of this, sophisticated credit risk models are being developed or demanded by banks to assess the risk of their credit portfolio better by recognizing the different underlying sources of risk. As a consequence, not only default probabilities for certain rating categories but also the probabilities of moving from one rating state to another are important issues in such models for risk management and pricing. It is widely accepted that rating migrations and default probabilities show significant variations through time due to macroeconomics conditions or the business cycle. These changes in migration behavior may have a substantial impact on the value-at-risk (VAR) of a credit portfolio or the prices of credit derivatives such as collateralized debt obligations (D+CDOs). In Rating Based Modeling of Credit Risk the authors develop a much more sophisticated analysis of migration behavior. Their contribution of more sophisticated techniques to measure and forecast changes in migration behavior as well as determining adequate estimators for transition matrices is a major contribution to rating based credit modeling. Internal ratings-based systems are widely used in banks to calculate their value-at-risk (VAR) in order to determine their capital requirements for loan and bond portfolios under Basel II One aspect of these ratings systems is credit migrations, addressed in a systematic and comprehensive way for the first time in this book The book is based on in-depth work by Trueck and Rachev

Credit risk is one of the most important contemporary problems for banks and insurance companies. Indeed, for banks, more than forty percent of the equities are necessary to cover this risk. Though this problem is studied by large rating agencies with substantial economic, social and financial tools, building stochastic models is nevertheless necessary to complete this descriptive orientation. This book presents a complete presentation of such a category of models using homogeneous and non-homogeneous semi-Markov processes developed by the authors in several recent papers. This approach provides a good method of evaluating the default risk and the classical VaR indicators used for Solvency II and Basel III governance rules. This book is the first to present a complete semi-Markov treatment of credit risk while also insisting on the practical use of the models presented here, including numerical aspects, so that this book is not only useful for scientific research but also to managers working in this field for banks, insurance companies, pension funds and other financial institutions.