Evaluating Climate Change Impacts

Evaluating Climate Change Impacts discusses assessing and quantifying climate change and its impacts from a multi-faceted perspective of ecosystem, social, and infrastructure resilience, given through a lens of statistics and data science. It provides a multi-disciplinary view on the implications of climate variability and shows how the new data science paradigm can help us to mitigate climate-induced risk and to enhance climate adaptation strategies. This book consists of chapters solicited from leading topical experts and presents their perspectives on climate change effects in two general areas: natural ecosystems and socio-economic impacts. The chapters unveil topics of atmospheric circulation, climate modeling, and long-term prediction; approach the problems of increasing frequency of extreme events, sea level rise, and forest fires, as well as economic losses, analysis of climate impacts for insurance, agriculture, fisheries, and electric and transport infrastructures. The reader will be exposed to the current research using a variety of methods from physical modeling, statistics, and machine learning, including the global circulation models (GCM) and ocean models, statistical generalized additive models (GAM) and generalized linear models (GLM), state space and graphical models, causality networks, Bayesian ensembles, a variety of index methods and statistical tests, and machine learning methods. The reader will learn about data from various sources, including GCM and ocean model outputs, satellite observations, and data collected by different agencies and research units. Many of the chapters provide references to open source software R and Python code that are available for implementing the methods.

This book is open access under a Creative Commons license. This authoritative book presents the ever progressing state of the art in evaluating climate change strategies and action. It builds upon a selection of relevant and practical papers and presentations given at the 2nd International Conference on Evaluating Climate Change and Development held in Washington DC in 2014 and includes perspectives from independent evaluations of the major international organisations supporting climate action in developing countries, such as the Global Environment Facility. The first section of the book sets the stage and provides an overview of independent evaluations, carried out by multilateral development banks and development organisations. Important topics include how policies and organisations aim to achieve impact and how this is measured, whether climate change is mainstreamed into other development programs, and whether operations are meeting the urgency of climate change challenges. The following sections focus on evaluation of climate change projects and policies as they link to development, from the perspective of international organisations, NGO’s, multilateral and bilateral aid agencies, and academia. The authors share methodologies or approaches used to better understand problems and assess interventions, strategies and policies. They also share challenges encountered, what was done to solve these and lessons learned from evaluations. Collectively, the authors illustrate the importance of evaluation in providing evidence to guide policy change to informed decision-making.

Climate change is occurring, is caused largely by human activities, and poses significant risks for-and in many cases is already affecting-a broad range of human and natural systems. The compelling case for these conclusions is provided in Advancing the Science of Climate Change, part of a congressionally requested suite of studies known as America's Climate Choices. While noting that there is always more to learn and that the scientific process is never closed, the book shows that hypotheses about climate change are supported by multiple lines of evidence and have stood firm in the face of serious debate and careful evaluation of alternative explanations. As decision makers respond to these risks, the nation's scientific enterprise can contribute through research that improves understanding of the causes and consequences of climate change and also is useful to decision makers at the local, regional, national, and international levels. The book identifies decisions being made in 12 sectors, ranging from agriculture to transportation, to identify decisions being made in response to climate change. Advancing the Science of Climate Change calls for a single federal entity or program to coordinate a national, multidisciplinary research effort aimed at improving both understanding and responses to climate change. Seven cross-cutting research themes are identified to support this scientific enterprise. In addition, leaders of federal climate research should redouble efforts to deploy a comprehensive climate observing system, improve climate models and other analytical tools, invest in human capital, and improve linkages between research and decisions by forming partnerships with action-oriented programs.

With effective climate change mitigation policies still under development, and with even the most aggressive proposals unable to halt climate change immediately, many decision makers are focusing unprecedented attention on the need for strategies to adapt to climate changes that are now unavoidable. The effects of climate change will touch every corner of the world's economies and societies; adaptation is inevitable. The remaining question is to what extent humans will anticipate and reduce undesired consequences of climate change, or postpone response until after climate change impacts have altered ecological and socioeconomic systems so significantly that opportunities for adaptation become limited. This book summarizes a National Research Council workshop at which presentations and discussion identified specific needs associated with this gap between the demand and supply of scientific information about climate change adaptation.

Climate change has become one of the most important global issues of our time, with far-reaching natural, socio-economic, and political effects. To address climate change and development issues from the perspective of evaluation, an international conference was held in Alexandria, Egypt. This book distills the essence of that timely conference, building on the experiences of more than 400 reports and studies presented. Developing countries may be particularly vulnerable to the expected onslaught of higher temperatures, rising sea levels, changing waterfall patterns, and increasing natural disasters. All societies will have to reduce their vulnerability to these changes, and this book describes how vulnerabilities may be addressed in a systematic manner so that governments and local communities may better understand what is happening. Different approaches are also discussed, including the use of human security as a criterion for evaluation as well as ways to deal with risk and uncertainty. Evaluating Climate Change and Development presents a rich variety of methods to assess adaptation through monitoring and evaluation. The volume deals with climate change, development, and evaluation; challenges and lessons learned from evaluations; mitigation of climate change; adaptation to climate change; vulnerability, risks and climate change; and presents a concluding chapter on the road ahead. Collectively the authors offer a set of approaches and techniques for the monitoring and evaluation of climate change.

This volume deals with the multifaceted and interdependent impacts of climate change on society from the perspective of a broad set of disciplines. The main objective of the book is to assess public and private cost of climate change as far as quantifiable, while taking into account the high degree of uncertainty. It offers new insights for the economic assessment of a broad range of climate change impact chains at a national scale. The framework presented in the book allows consistent evaluation including mutual interdependencies and macroeconomic feedback. This book develops a toolbox that can be used across the many areas of climate impact and applies it to one particular country: Austria.

This volume deals with the multifaceted and interdependent impacts of climate change on society from the perspective of a broad set of disciplines. The main objective of the book is to assess public and private cost of climate change as far as quantifiable, while taking into account the high degree of uncertainty. It offers new insights for the economic assessment of a broad range of climate change impact chains at a national scale. The framework presented in the book allows consistent evaluation including mutual interdependencies and macroeconomic feedback. This book develops a toolbox that can be used across the many areas of climate impact and applies it to one particular country: Austria.