Evaluation Of Uncertainties And Risks In Geology

High levels of uncertainty are a trademark of geological investigations, such as the search for oil, diamonds, and uranium. So business ventures related to geology, such as mineral exploration and mining, are naturally associated with higher risks than more traditional entrepreneurial ventures in industry and economy. There are also a number of dangerous natural hazards, e.g. earthquakes, volcanic activities, and inundations, that are the direct result of geological processes. It is of paramount interest to study them all, to describe them, to understand their origin and - if possible - to predict them. While uncertainties, geological risks and natural hazards are often mentioned in geological textbooks, conferences papers, and articles, no comprehensive and systematic evaluation has so far been attempted. This book, written at an appropriately sophisticated level to deal with complexity of these problems, presents a detailed evaluation of the entire problem, discussing it from both, the geological and the mathematical aspects.

Economically viable concentrations of mineral resources are uncommon in Earth’s crust. Most ore deposits that were mined in the past or are currently being extracted were found at or near Earth’s surface, often serendipitously. To meet the future demand for mineral resources, exploration success hinges on identifying targets at depth. Achieving this requires accurate and informed models of the Earth's crust that are consistent with all available geological, geochemical and geophysical information, paired with an understanding of how ore-forming systems relate to Earth’s evolving structure. Contributions to this volume address the future resources challenge by (i) applying advanced microscale geochemical detection and characterization methods, (ii) introducing more rigorous 3D Earth models, (iii) exploring critical behaviour and coupled processes, (iv) evaluating the role of geodynamic and tectonic setting and (v) applying 3D structural models to characterize specific ore-forming systems.

"The science of informatics in the broadest sense has been several thousands of years in the making. With the recent emergence of large storage devices and high-speed processing of data, it has become possible to organize vast amounts of data as digital products with ontologic tags and concepts for smart queries. Coupling this computational capability with earth science data defines the emerging field of geoinformatics. Since the science of geology was established several centuries ago, observations led to conclusions that were integrative in concept and clearly had profound implications for the birth of geology. As disciplinary information about Earth becomes more voluminous, the use of geoinformatics will lead to integrative, science-based discoveries of new knowledge about planetary systems. Twenty one research papers, co-authored by 96 researchers from both earth and computer sciences, provide the first-ever organized presentation of the science of informatics as it relates to geology. Readers will readily recognize the vast intellectual content represented by these papers as they seek to address the core research goals of geoinformatics."--Publisher's website.

Assessment of risk and uncertainty is crucial for natural hazard risk management, facilitating risk communication and informing strategies to successfully mitigate our society's vulnerability to natural disasters. Written by some of the world's leading experts, this book provides a state-of-the-art overview of risk and uncertainty assessment in natural hazards. It presents the core statistical concepts using clearly defined terminology applicable across all types of natural hazards and addresses the full range of sources of uncertainty, the role of expert judgement and the practice of uncertainty elicitation. The core of the book provides detailed coverage of all the main hazard types and concluding chapters address the wider societal context of risk management. This is an invaluable compendium for academic researchers and professionals working in the fields of natural hazards science, risk assessment and management and environmental science, and will be of interest to anyone involved in natural hazards policy.

Over the past decades, geological survey organizations have digitized their data handling and holdings, unlocking vast amounts of data and information for computer processing. They have undertaken 3-D modeling alongside, and in some cases instead of, conventional geological mapping and begun delivering both data and interpretations to increasingly diverse stakeholder communities. Applied Multidimensional Geological Modeling provides a citable central source that documents the current capabilities and contributions of leading geological survey organization and other practitioners in industry and academia that are producing multidimensional geological models. This book focuses on applications related to human interactions with conditions in the shallow subsurface, within 100-200 m of the surface. The 26 chapters, developed by 100 contributors associated with 37 organizations, discuss topics relevant to any geologist, scientist, engineer, urban planner, or decision maker whose practice includes assessment or planning of underground space.

Uncertainties are pervasive in natural hazards, and it is crucial to develop robust and meaningful approaches to characterize and communicate uncertainties to inform modeling efforts. In this monograph we provide a broad, cross-disciplinary overview of issues relating to uncertainties faced in natural hazard and risk assessment. We introduce some basic tenets of uncertainty analysis, discuss issues related to communication and decision support, and offer numerous examples of analyses and modeling approaches that vary by context and scope. Contributors include scientists from across the full breath of the natural hazard scientific community, from those in real-time analysis of natural hazards to those in the research community from academia and government. Key themes and highlights include: Substantial breadth and depth of analysis in terms of the types of natural hazards addressed, the disciplinary perspectives represented, and the number of studies included Targeted, application-centered analyses with a focus on development and use of modeling techniques to address various sources of uncertainty Emphasis on the impacts of climate change on natural hazard processes and outcomes Recommendations for cross-disciplinary and science transfer across natural hazard sciences This volume will be an excellent resource for those interested in the current work on uncertainty classification/quantification and will document common and emergent research themes to allow all to learn from each other and build a more connected but still diverse and ever growing community of scientists. Read an interview with the editors to find out more: https://eos.org/editors-vox/reducing-uncertainty-in-hazard-prediction