Exchange Policies For Less Developed Countries In A World Of Floating Rates

In recent years, an increasing number of developing countries have adopted market-determined floating exchange rates. This development has represented a significant step forward in the evolution toward exchange rate flexibility that has taken place in the developing country group since the adoption of generalized floating by industrial countries in 1973.

Edited conference report on the effects of the international monetary system on developing countries - discusses exchange rate policies and floating currencys, Terms of Trade and monetary transfers, petroleum price increases, foreign exchange reserves and financing needs of such countries, etc. Diagrams, references and statistical tables. Conference held in Washington dc 1975 June 4.

We analyze coordination of monetary and exchange rate policy in a two-sector model of a small open economy featuring imperfect substitution between domestic and foreign financial assets. Our central finding is that management of the exchange rate greatly enhances the efficacy of inflation targeting. In a flexible exchange rate system, inflation targeting incurs a high risk of indeterminacy where macroeconomic fluctuations can be driven by self-fulfilling expectations. Moreover, small inflation shocks may escalate into much larger increases in inflation ex post. Both problems disappear when the central bank leans heavily against the wind in a managed float.

This article analyzes the theory of equilibrium real exchange rates and defines misalignment as a deviation of the real exchange rate (RER) from its equilibrium level. The role of macroeconomic policies is then analyzed under three alternative nominal exchange rate regimes: predetermined nominal exchange rates; floating nominal rates; and dual or black market nominal exchange rates. This discussion points out how inconsistent macroeconomic policies often lead to real exchange rate misalignment. Corrective measures, including nominal devaluation and several alternative approaches, are then evaluated.

The paper develops and tests a model of a developing economy that incorporates trade and capital restrictions, illegal transactions, a parallel foreign exchange market, currency substitution features, and forward-looking rational expectations. Temporary expansionary demand policies are associated with an increase in output and prices, a fall in the stock of net foreign assets, and a depreciation of the parallel exchange rate. The speed of adjustment is inversely related to the degree of rationing in the official foreign currency market. A once-for–all devaluation of the official exchange rate has no long-term effect on the premium.

This paper examines the recent evolution of exchange rate policies inthe developing world. It looks at why so many countries have made a transition from fixed or "pegged" exchange rates to "managed floating"currencies. It discusses how economies perform under different exchangerate arrangements, issues in the choice of regime, and the challenges poised by a world of increasing capital mobility, especially when bankingsectors are inadequately regulated or supervised.