Extreme Events In Nature And Society

Significant, and usually unwelcome, surprises, such as floods, financial crisis, epileptic seizures, or material rupture, are the topics of Extreme Events in Nature and Society. The book, authored by foremost experts in these fields, reveals unifying and distinguishing features of extreme events, including problems of understanding and modelling their origin, spatial and temporal extension, and potential impact. The chapters converge towards the difficult problem of anticipation: forecasting the event and proposing measures to moderate or prevent it. Extreme Events in Nature and Society will interest not only specialists, but also the general reader eager to learn how the multifaceted field of extreme events can be viewed as a coherent whole.

Presents unifying and distinguishing features of extreme events, including problems of understanding and modelling their origin, spatial and temporal extension, and potential impact. This book aims to help in the difficult problem of anticipation: forecasting the event and proposing measures to moderate or prevent it.

V. I. Keilis-Borok (1921-2013) is one of the founders of computational seismology and mathematical geophysics and a pioneer in advance predictions of extreme events in complex systems, including earthquakes, economic recessions, outcomes of elections, surges of unemployment, and crime waves. This book overviews over fifty years of work by V. I. Keilis-Borok and his group on developing successful algorithms for prediction of extreme events in nature and society. This edition contains the original text by V. I. Keilis-Borok, but excludes key preprints that can be found in the expanded hardcover edition.

V. I. Keilis-Borok (1921-2013) is one of the founders of computational seismology and mathematical geophysics and a pioneer in advance predictions of extreme events in complex systems, including earthquakes, economic recessions, outcomes of elections, surges of unemployment, and crime waves. This book overviews over fifty years of work by V. I. Keilis-Borok and his group on developing successful algorithms for prediction of extreme events in nature and society.

As climate has warmed over recent years, a new pattern of more frequent and more intense weather events has unfolded across the globe. Climate models simulate such changes in extreme events, and some of the reasons for the changes are well understood. Warming increases the likelihood of extremely hot days and nights, favors increased atmospheric moisture that may result in more frequent heavy rainfall and snowfall, and leads to evaporation that can exacerbate droughts. Even with evidence of these broad trends, scientists cautioned in the past that individual weather events couldn't be attributed to climate change. Now, with advances in understanding the climate science behind extreme events and the science of extreme event attribution, such blanket statements may not be accurate. The relatively young science of extreme event attribution seeks to tease out the influence of human-cause climate change from other factors, such as natural sources of variability like El Niño, as contributors to individual extreme events. Event attribution can answer questions about how much climate change influenced the probability or intensity of a specific type of weather event. As event attribution capabilities improve, they could help inform choices about assessing and managing risk, and in guiding climate adaptation strategies. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities.

Climate Change and Extreme Events uses a multidisciplinary approach to discuss the relationship between climate change-related weather extremes and their impact on human lives. Topics discussed are grouped into four major sections: weather parameters, hydrological responses, mitigation and adaptation, and governance and policies, with each addressed with regard to past, present and future perspectives. Sections give an overview of weather parameters and hydrological responses, presenting current knowledge and a future outlook on air and stream temperatures, precipitation, storms and hurricanes, flooding, and ecosystem responses to these extremes. Other sections cover extreme weather events and discuss the role of the state in policymaking. This book provides a valuable interdisciplinary resource to climate scientists and meteorologists, environmental researchers, and social scientists interested in extreme weather. Provides an integrated interdisciplinary approach to how climate change impacts the hydrological system Addresses significant knowledge gaps in our understanding of climate change and extreme events Discusses the societal impacts of climate change-related weather extremes, including multilevel governance and adaptation policy

Climate change can reasonably be expected to increase the frequency and intensity of a variety of potentially disruptive environmental events-slowly at first, but then more quickly. It is prudent to expect to be surprised by the way in which these events may cascade, or have far-reaching effects. During the coming decade, certain climate-related events will produce consequences that exceed the capacity of the affected societies or global systems to manage; these may have global security implications. Although focused on events outside the United States, Climate and Social Stress: Implications for Security Analysis recommends a range of research and policy actions to create a whole-of-government approach to increasing understanding of complex and contingent connections between climate and security, and to inform choices about adapting to and reducing vulnerability to climate change.

Over the past few decades, the frequency and severity of natural and human-induced disasters have increased across Asia. These disasters lead to substantial loss of life, livelihoods and community assets, which not only threatens the pace of socio-economic development, but also undo hard-earned gains. Extreme events and disasters such as floods, droughts, heat, fire, cyclones and tidal surges are known to be exacerbated by environmental changes including climate change, land-use changes and natural resource degradation. Increasing climate variability and multi-dimensional vulnerabilities have severely affected the social, ecological and economic capacities of the people in the region who are, economically speaking, those with the least capacity to adapt. Climatic and other environmental hazards and anthropogenic risks, coupled with weak and wavering capacities, severely impact the ecosystems and Nature’s Contributions to People (NCP) and, thereby, to human well-being. Long-term resilience building through disaster risk reduction and integrated adaptive climate planning, therefore, has become a key priority for scientists and policymakers alike. Nature-based Solutions (NbS) is a cost-effective approach that utilizes ecosystem and biodiversity services for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation, while also providing a range of co-benefits like sustainable livelihoods and food, water and energy security. This book discusses the concept of Nature-based Solutions (NbS) – both as a science and as art – and elaborates on how it can be applied to develop healthy and resilient ecosystems locally, nationally, regionally and globally. The book covers illustrative methods and tools adopted for applying NbS in different countries. The authors discuss NbS applications and challenges, research trends and future insights that have wider regional and global relevance. The aspects covered include: landscape restoration, ecosystem-based adaptation, ecosystem-based disaster risk reduction, ecological restoration, ecosystem-based protected areas management, green infrastructure development, nature-friendly infrastructure development in various ecosystem types, agro-climatic zones and watersheds. The book offers insights into understanding the sustainable development goals (SDGs) at the grass roots level and can help indigenous and local communities harness ecosystem services to help achieve them. It offers a unique, essential resource for researchers, students, corporations, administrators and policymakers working in the fields of the environment, geography, development, policy planning, the natural sciences, life sciences, agriculture, health, climate change and disaster studies.