Financial Modeling For Equity Research

From the Author: This is not another boring, impossible to read, thousand-page textbook. On the contrary, this is an exciting journey into the world of Wall Street-style financial modeling. The motivation behind this book comes from my days as a new research analyst, trying to juggle the demands of 80-plus hour work weeks, FINRA exams, and client meetings, while attempting to learn the basics of modeling. At the time I sought outside educational resources only to find useless classes focused on spreadsheet tricks, or high-level theory-based books with little practical value. What I really needed was someone to sit down, and show me exactly how to build a model, using a real company as an example, from start to finish. Now, years after leaving the sell-side rat race, I have written the book that I sought when I was new to the street. The result is a clear, concise, easy to read guide on how to build a three-statement model. The book starts with an introduction to the industry and important background information for new analysts. Then, beginning with a blank spreadsheet, the text demonstrates exactly how to build a model using an actual company example. Throughout the chapters there are numerous images of the model which highlight key elements, as if I were pointing to a computer screen and explaining it directly to the reader. There are also more than 30 spreadsheets available for download to follow along with the text. After the model is built, I discuss effective ways to use it for forecasting and share valuation, and demonstrate how to maintain the model over time. I have also included insight from my experience in research, pitfalls to watch for, and frequently asked questions from my research team, to help add color to the subject matter. This book is a self-published, grassroots effort. You will not find a shiny professional cover or expert photographs inside. This book is less what you would expect from a traditional textbook, and closer to an informal conversation between me and the reader. Sometimes all you need is to talk to someone who has been there, and that is what you will get between these two covers. Ultimately the goal is to have my readers come away from their experience feeling empowered and excited to build an earnings model of their own. Regardless of whether or not you intend to start a career in equity research, if you would like to learn how to model earnings for a company, then this book is a good place to get started.

This book demonstrates step-by-step how to create a financial model, similar to the models maintained by sell-side equity research analysts. The accompanying Excel files demonstrate the key concepts and can be used as templates to create an earning model for nearly any company. Readers without prior financial analysis experience will gain a fundamental understanding of exactly what modeling entails, and will learn how to create a basic form of an earnings model. Advanced readers will be introduced to more complex topics such as linking the financial statements, future period calibration, and incorporating macroeconomic variables into discounted valuation analysis through the equity risk premium and application of the capital asset pricing model.The Excel templates included with this book include:File 1--Blank Model Template: Use this template to create your own earnings model. File 2--Apple Inc Back of the Envelope Model: This beginner model features a basic Income Statement projection and is perfect for those who have not had prior modeling experience. File 3--Apple Inc Tier 2 Earnings Model: This version of the model is more sophisticated and includes a breakdown of the company's products, which is used to project future earnings.File 4--Apple Inc Tier 1 Earnings Model: The Tier 1 model is geared toward advanced analysts and includes financial statement integration, as well as a discounted cash flow valuation. File 5--Equity Risk Premium (ERP) Model: Using this simple model you can quickly estimate the market ERP based on volatility, changes in interest rates, and market return expectations. You can then derive a discount rate using your ERP estimate, and the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). File 6--Apple Inc Beta Calculation: This file demonstrates the calculation of beta, using an Excel-based regression.Files 7&8--Regression Models: The final two files demonstrate how to run regression analysis to project inputs which could be incorporated into your earnings models.This book is well suited for:Business Students: Whether you are majoring in Finance, Accounting, Marketing, Entrepreneurship, or Management, learning the fundamentals of forecasting is critical to your academic development, and will help prepare you for a professional career.Sell-Side Equity Research Analysts: Need a fresh perspective for your models? Consider adding changes in volatility, interest rates, or corporate tax reform to your valuation approach. Or incorporate non-GAAP adjustments, and forecast the impact of new accounting standards into your models.Financial Planners and Wealth Management Professionals: Have your clients been asking your opinion of a stock in the headlines? This book will teach you how to build a model for nearly any company, allowing you to deliver comprehensive analysis to your clients.Buy-Side Analysts: Want a consensus-based model to compare to that of each analyst? This book demonstrates how to create one, and how to use it to perform quick reviews of consensus estimates, management's guidance, and run powerful scenario analysis ahead of an earnings release.Investor Relations Professionals: Gain valuable insight into how the analysts covering your company are modeling your results, and use this knowledge to predict what the analysts will ask on the conference calls.Private Equity/Venture Capital Analysts: Trying to value a new investment with unpredictable cash flows? Use this book as a guide to build a dynamic model, and incorporate various inputs to create upside/downside scenarios....as well as any others who are interested in learning how to use fundamental analysis to review an equity security' future prospects.

Written by the Founder and CEO of the prestigious New York School of Finance, this book schools you in the fundamental tools for accurately assessing the soundness of a stock investment. Built around a full-length case study of Wal-Mart, it shows you how to perform an in-depth analysis of that company's financial standing, walking you through all the steps of developing a sophisticated financial model as done by professional Wall Street analysts. You will construct a full scale financial model and valuation step-by-step as you page through the book. When we ran this analysis in January of 2012, we estimated the stock was undervalued. Since the first run of the analysis, the stock has increased 35 percent. Re-evaluating Wal-Mart 9months later, we will step through the techniques utilized by Wall Street analysts to build models on and properly value business entities. Step-by-step financial modeling - taught using downloadable Wall Street models, you will construct the model step by step as you page through the book. Hot keys and explicit Excel instructions aid even the novice excel modeler. Model built complete with Income Statement, Cash Flow Statement, Balance Sheet, Balance Sheet Balancing Techniques, Depreciation Schedule (complete with accelerating depreciation and deferring taxes), working capital schedule, debt schedule, handling circular references, and automatic debt pay downs. Illustrative concepts including detailing model flows help aid in conceptual understanding. Concepts are reiterated and honed, perfect for a novice yet detailed enough for a professional. Model built direct from Wal-Mart public filings, searching through notes, performing research, and illustrating techniques to formulate projections. Includes in-depth coverage of valuation techniques commonly used by Wall Street professionals. Illustrative comparable company analyses - built the right way, direct from historical financials, calculating LTM (Last Twelve Month) data, calendarization, and properly smoothing EBITDA and Net Income. Precedent transactions analysis - detailing how to extract proper metrics from relevant proxy statements Discounted cash flow analysis - simplifying and illustrating how a DCF is utilized, how unlevered free cash flow is derived, and the meaning of weighted average cost of capital (WACC) Step-by-step we will come up with a valuation on Wal-Mart Chapter end questions, practice models, additional case studies and common interview questions (found in the companion website) help solidify the techniques honed in the book; ideal for universities or business students looking to break into the investment banking field.

The first real-world guide for training equity research analysts—from a Morgan Stanley veteran Addresses the dearth of practical training materials for research analysts in the U.S. and globally Valentine managed a department of 70 analysts and 100 associates at Morgan Stanley and developed new programs for over 500 employees around the globe He will promote the book through his company's extensive outreach capabilities

An inside look at modern approaches to modeling equity portfolios Financial Modeling of the Equity Market is the most comprehensive, up-to-date guide to modeling equity portfolios. The book is intended for a wide range of quantitative analysts, practitioners, and students of finance. Without sacrificing mathematical rigor, it presents arguments in a concise and clear style with a wealth of real-world examples and practical simulations. This book presents all the major approaches to single-period return analysis, including modeling, estimation, and optimization issues. It covers both static and dynamic factor analysis, regime shifts, long-run modeling, and cointegration. Estimation issues, including dimensionality reduction, Bayesian estimates, the Black-Litterman model, and random coefficient models, are also covered in depth. Important advances in transaction cost measurement and modeling, robust optimization, and recent developments in optimization with higher moments are also discussed. Sergio M. Focardi (Paris, France) is a founding partner of the Paris-based consulting firm, The Intertek Group. He is a member of the editorial board of the Journal of Portfolio Management. He is also the author of numerous articles and books on financial modeling. Petter N. Kolm, PhD (New Haven, CT and New York, NY), is a graduate student in finance at the Yale School of Management and a financial consultant in New York City. Previously, he worked in the Quantitative Strategies Group of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, where he developed quantitative investment models and strategies.

An experienced equity research analyst guides jobseekers every step along the way, from choosing which companies to target, to mastering the specialized interview process, in order to stand out from the pack.

This book demonstrates step-by-step how to create a financial model. The accompanying Excel files demonstrate the key concepts and can be used as templates to create an earning model for nearly any company. Readers without prior financial analysis experience will gain a fundamental understanding of exactly what modeling entails, and will learn how to create a basic form of an earnings model. Advanced readers will be introduced to more complex topics such as linking the financial statements, future period calibration, and incorporating macroeconomic variables into discounted valuation analysis through the equity risk premium and application of the capital asset pricing model. The Excel templates included with this book include: * File 1 - Blank Model Template: Use this template to create your own earnings model. * File 2 - Apple Inc Back of the Envelope Model: This beginner model features a basic Income Statement projection and is perfect for those who have not had prior modeling experience.* File 3 - Apple Inc Tier 2 Earnings Model: This version of the model is more sophisticated and includes a breakdown of the company's products, which is used to project future earnings. * File 4 - Apple Inc Tier 1 Earnings Model: The Tier 1 model is geared toward advanced analysts and includes financial statement integration, as well as a discounted cash flow valuation. * File 5 - Equity Risk Premium (ERP) Model: Using this simple model you can quickly estimate the market ERP based on volatility, changes in interest rates, and market return expectations. You can then derive a discount rate using your ERP estimate, and the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). * File 6 - Apple Inc Beta Calculation: This file demonstrates the calculation of beta, using an Excel-based regression. * Files 7&8 - Regression Models: The final two files demonstrate how to run regression analysis to project inputs which could be incorporated into your earnings models. This book is well suited for... Business Students: Whether you are majoring in Finance, Accounting, Marketing, Entrepreneurship, or Management, learning the fundamentals of forecasting is critical to your academic development, and will help prepare you for a professional career. Sell-Side Equity Research Analysts: Need a fresh perspective for your models? Consider adding changes in volatility, interest rates, or corporate tax reform to your valuation approach. Or incorporate non-GAAP adjustments, and forecast the impact of new accounting standards into your models. Financial Planners and Wealth Management Professionals: Have your clients been asking your opinion of a stock in the headlines? This book will teach you how to build a model for nearly any company, allowing you to deliver comprehensive analysis to your clients. Buy-Side Analysts: Want a consensus-based model to compare to that of each analyst? This book demonstrates how to create one, and how to use it to perform quick reviews of consensus estimates, management's guidance, and run powerful scenario analysis ahead of an earnings release. Investor Relations Professionals: Gain valuable insight into how the analysts covering your company are modeling your results, and use this knowledge to predict what the analysts will ask on the conference calls. Private Equity/Venture Capital Analysts: Trying to value a new investment with unpredictable cash flows? Use this book as a guide to build a dynamic model, and incorporate various inputs to create upside/downside scenarios. ...as well as anyone else interested in learning how to use fundamental analysis to review an equity security's future prospects.

This advanced undergraduate/graduate textbook teaches students in finance and economics how to use R to analyse financial data and implement financial models. It demonstrates how to take publically available data and manipulate, implement models and generate outputs typical for particular analyses. A wide spectrum of timely and practical issues in financial modelling are covered including return and risk measurement, portfolio management, option pricing and fixed income analysis. This new edition updates and expands upon the existing material providing updated examples and new chapters on equities, simulation and trading strategies, including machine learnings techniques. Select data sets are available online.