Food Insecurity And Climate Shocks In Madagascar

Food insecurity dramatically increased in Madagascar over the last 10 years, hampering human development. Using most recent data and surveys conducted by UN Agencies and local authorities, this paper analyzes the root causes of food insecurity in Madagascar related to demographic vulnerabilities, multidimensional poverty, lack of education, as well as structural weaknesses in the food value chain and the lack of basic infrastructure, such as irrigation and transportation, that hamper agricultural activity development. Moreover, Madagascar is exposed to a large variety of climate shocks that climate change will likely exacerbate. This paper formulates country specific macroeconomic and operational policy recommendations in collaboration with the World Food Program to reduce food insecurity, which include i) measures to improve the emergency response and preparedness, ii) policies to address structural food insecurity, by improving the food chain and addressing challenges posed by climate shocks, and iii) measures to improve Green PFM and climate related public investment management to invest in long-term resilience and mobilize external financing.

Climate change is intensifying food insecurity across sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) with lasting adverse macroeconomic effects, especially on economic growth and poverty. Successive shocks from the war in Ukraine and COVID-19 pandemic have increased food prices and depressed incomes, raising the number of people suffering from high malnutrition and unable to meet basic food consumption needs by at least 30 percent to 123 million in 2022 or 12 percent of SSA’s population. Addressing the lack of resilience to climate change—that critically underlies food insecurity in SSA—will require careful policy prioritization against a backdrop of financing and capacity constraints. This paper presents some key considerations and examples of tradeoffs and complementarities across policies to address food insecurity. Key findings include (1) Fiscal policies focused on social assistance and efficient public infrastructure investment can improve poorer households’ access to affordable food, facilitate expansion of climate-resilient and green agricultural production, and support quicker recovery from adverse climate events; (2) Improving access to finance is key to stepping up private investment in agricultural resilience and productivity as well as improving the earning capacity and food purchasing power of poorer rural and urban households; and (3) Greater regional trade integration, complemented with resilient transport infrastructure, enables sales of one country’s bumper harvests to its neighbors’ facing shortages. The international community can help with financial assistance—especially for the above-mentioned social assistance and key infrastructure areas—capacity development, and facilitating transfers of technology and know-how.

Republic of Madagascar: Selected Issues

Most countries in the Near East and North Africa saw a steady improvement in food security and nutrition up to the beginning of the decade. Food production was rising and undernourishment and poverty were receding. However, the situation has deteriorated since 2012, largely driven by increasing conflicts and protracted crises as well as water scarcity and climate change.

We develop a quantitative spatial general equilibrium model with heterogeneous house-holds and multiple locations to study households’ vulnerability to food insecurity from cli-mate shocks. In the model, households endogenously respond to negative climate shocks by drawing-down assets, importing food and temporarily migrating to earn additional income to ensure sufficient calories. Because these coping strategies are most effective when trade and migration costs are low, remote households are more vulnerable to climate shocks. Food insecure households are also more vulnerable, as their proximity to a subsistence requirement causes them to hold a smaller capital buffer and more aggressively dissave in response to shocks, at the expense of future consumption. We calibrate the model to 51 districts in Nepal and estimate the impact of historical climate shocks on food consumption and welfare. We estimate that, on an annual basis, floods, landslides, droughts and storms combined generated GDP losses of 2.3 percent, welfare losses of 3.3 percent for the average household and increased the rate of undernourishment by 2.8 percent. Undernourished households experience roughly 50 percent larger welfare losses and those in remote locations suffer welfare losses that are roughly two times larger than in less remote locations (5.9 vs 2.9 percent). In counterfactual simulations, we show the role of better access to migration and trade in building resilience to climate shocks.

With the potential to impact weather patterns, agriculture, and habitability of certain regions, global warming is a topic of interest to environmentalists, scientists, as well as farmers around the world. The threat of food shortages and famine especially becomes a major concern as a result of recent climate shifts. Impacts of Climate Change on Food Security in Small Island Developing States discusses the repercussions of a shifting climate on food production and availability in small island nations. Comprised of research-based chapters on topics relevant to crop management, sustainable development, and livestock management on island territories, this advanced reference work is appropriate for environmental researchers, food scientists, academicians, and upper-level students seeking the latest information on agricultural concerns amidst a changing climate.

The second of three books in IFPRI's climate change in Africa series, East African Agriculture and Climate Change: A Comprehensive Analysis examines the food security threats facing 10 of the countries that make up east and central Africa - Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, Eritrea, Kenya, Madagascar, Rwanda, Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda - and explores how climate change will increase the efforts needed to achieve sustainable food security throughout the region. East Africa's populations is expected to grow at least through mid-century. The region will also see income growth. Both will put increased pressure on the natural resources needed to produce food, and climate change makes the challenges greater. East Africa is already experiencing rising temperatures, shifting precipitation patterns, and increasing extreme events. Without attention to adaptation, the poor will suffer.

Global climatic change has resulted in new and unpredictable patterns of precipitation and temperature, the increased frequency of extreme weather events and rising sea levels. These changes impact all four aspects of food security – availability, accessibility, stability of supply and appropriate nourishment – as well as the entire food system – food production, marketing, processing, distribution and prices. Climate Change and Food Security focuses on the challenge to food security posed by a changing climate. The book brings together many of the critical global concerns of climate change and food security through local cases based on empirical studies undertaken in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Caribbean. Focusing on risk reduction and the complex nature of vulnerability to climate change, the book includes chapters on the responsiveness of farmers based on traditional knowledge, as well as the critical phenomenon of food insecurity in the urban setting. Other chapters are devoted to efforts made to strengthen resilience through long-term development, with interventions at the regional and national levels of scale. It also examines cross-cutting themes that underlie the strategies employed to achieve food security, including equity, gender, livelihoods and governance. This edited volume will be of great interest to students and scholars of climate change, food security, environmental management and sustainable development.