Forecasting Electricity Prices In A Power Pool

This book is a printed edition of the Special Issue "Forecasting Models of Electricity Prices" that was published in Energies

This book offers an in-depth and up-to-date review of different statistical tools that can be used to analyze and forecast the dynamics of two crucial for every energy company processes—electricity prices and loads. It provides coverage of seasonal decomposition, mean reversion, heavy-tailed distributions, exponential smoothing, spike preprocessing, autoregressive time series including models with exogenous variables and heteroskedastic (GARCH) components, regime-switching models, interval forecasts, jump-diffusion models, derivatives pricing and the market price of risk. Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices is packaged with a CD containing both the data and detailed examples of implementation of different techniques in Matlab, with additional examples in SAS. A reader can retrace all the intermediate steps of a practical implementation of a model and test his understanding of the method and correctness of the computer code using the same input data. The book will be of particular interest to the quants employed by the utilities, independent power generators and marketers, energy trading desks of the hedge funds and financial institutions, and the executives attending courses designed to help them to brush up on their technical skills. The text will be also of use to graduate students in electrical engineering, econometrics and finance wanting to get a grip on advanced statistical tools applied in this hot area. In fact, there are sixteen Case Studies in the book making it a self-contained tutorial to electricity load and price modeling and forecasting.

An essential overview of post-deregulation market operations inelectrical power systems Until recently the U.S. electricity industry was dominated byvertically integrated utilities. It is now evolving into adistributive and competitive market driven by market forces andincreased competition. With electricity amounting to a $200 billionper year market in the United States, the implications of thisrestructuring will naturally affect the rest of the world. Why is restructuring necessary? What are the components ofrestructuring? How is the new structure different from the oldmonopoly? How are the participants strategizing their options tomaximize their revenues? What are the market risks and how are theyevaluated? How are interchange transactions analyzed and approved?Starting with a background sketch of the industry, this hands-onreference provides insights into the new trends in power systemsoperation and control, and highlights advanced issues in thefield. Written for both technical and nontechnical professionals involvedin power engineering, finance, and marketing, this must-haveresource discusses: * Market structure and operation of electric power systems * Load and price forecasting and arbitrage * Price-based unit commitment and security constrained unitcommitment * Market power analysis and game theory applications * Ancillary services auction market design * Transmission pricing and congestion Using real-world case studies, this timely survey offers engineers,consultants, researchers, financial managers, university professorsand students, and other professionals in the industry acomprehensive review of electricity restructuring and how itsradical effects will shape the market.

A comprehensive review of state-of-the-art approaches to power systems forecasting from the most respected names in the field, internationally Advances in Electric Power and Energy Systems is the first book devoted exclusively to a subject of increasing urgency to power systems planning and operations. Written for practicing engineers, researchers, and post-grads concerned with power systems planning and forecasting, this book brings together contributions from many of the world’s foremost names in the field who address a range of critical issues, from forecasting power system load to power system pricing to post-storm service restoration times, river flow forecasting, and more. In a time of ever-increasing energy demands, mounting concerns over the environmental impacts of power generation, and the emergence of new, smart-grid technologies, electricity price forecasting has assumed a prominent role within both the academic and industrial arenas. Short-run forecasting of electricity prices has become necessary for power generation unit schedule, since it is the basis of every maximization strategy. This book fills a gap in the literature on this increasingly important topic. Following an introductory chapter offering background information necessary for a full understanding of the forecasting issues covered, this book: Introduces advanced methods of time series forecasting, as well as neural networks Provides in-depth coverage of state-of-the-art power system load forecasting and electricity price forecasting Addresses river flow forecasting based on autonomous neural network models Deals with price forecasting in a competitive market Includes estimation of post-storm restoration times for electric power distribution systems Features contributions from world-renowned experts sharing their insights and expertise in a series of self-contained chapters Advances in Electric Power and Energy Systems is a valuable resource for practicing engineers, regulators, planners, and consultants working in or concerned with the electric power industry. It is also a must read for senior undergraduates, graduate students, and researchers involved in power system planning and operation.

Electricity markets are being deregulated or face new regulatory frameworks. In such changing markets, new pricing strategies will need to consider such factors as cost, value of service and pricing by objective. Pricing in Competitive Electricity Markets introduces a new family of pricing concepts, methodologies, models, tools and databases focused on market-based pricing. This book reviews important theoretical pricing issues as well as practical pricing applications for changing electricity markets.

An examination of key issues in electric utilities restructuring. It covers: electric utility markets in and out of the USA; the Open Access Same-time Information System; tagging transactions; trading energy; hedging tools for managing risks in various markets; pricing volatility, risk and forecasting; regional transmission organization; and more. The text contains acronyms, a contract specifications sample, examples, and nearly 500 bibliographic citations, tables, and drawings.

Electricity markets are structurally different to other commodities, and the real-time dynamic balancing of the electricity network involves many external factors. Because of this, it is not a simple matter to transfer conventional models of financial time series analysis to wholesale electricity prices. The rationale for this compilation of chapters from international authors is, therefore, to provide econometric analysis of wholesale power markets around the world, to give greater understanding of their particular characteristics, and to assess the applicability of various methods of price modelling. Researchers and professionals in this sector will find the book an invaluable guide to the most important state-of-the-art modelling techniques which are converging to define the special approaches necessary for unravelling and forecasting the behaviour of electricity prices. It is a high-quality synthesis of the work of financial engineering, industrial economics and power systems analysis, as they relate to the behaviour of competitive electricity markets.