Forecasting Transportation Impacts Upon Land Use

The idea for this book had its origins in a series of working papers prepared for the Georgia Transportation Planning Land Use Model project. The book is not an official report on that project and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Georgia Department of Transportation. Mrs. Catherine Bennett, Systems Designer, assisted in the special run of the Georgia State Econometric Model in Chapter 2. Mr. Richard Burns and Miss Louise Shedd, research assistant!i, aided in data assembly and analysis for Chapters 3 and 5. The authors wish to express their particular thanks to Mrs. Dallas Gonzales, who provided editorial assistance, and to Mrs. Deborah Conklin, who typed the final manuscript. Table of contents PREFACE v LIST OF TABLES x LIST OF FIGURES xii 1. INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW PAUL F. WENDT Urban growth theories 1 Land use models 4 The Georgia transportation planning land use model 6 Employment and population submodel 7 Description of the Delphi technique 8 Housing and population submodel 9 Relationships between land use forecasting 10 Summary 12 2. NATIONAL AND REGIONAL ECONOMETRIC MODELS 16 JOHN B. LEGLER AND TERRY D. ROBERTSON Macro-econometric models 16 Problems in constructing regional econometric models 19 The Georgia model 20 Testing the Georgia model 22 Forecasts and applications of the Georgia model 25 An example of impact analysis using the Georgia state model 28 Summary 30 3. GROWTH AND CHANGE IN THE GEORGIA REGIONAL ECONOMIES 32 CHARLES F.

This monograph is a revision of my Indiana University doctoral disserta tion which was completed in April, 1975. Thanks are, therefore, due to the members of my doctoral committee: Saul Pleeter (Chairman), David J. Behling, R. Jeffery Green, Richard L. Pfister, and Elmus Wicker for their helpful comments on previous versions of the manuscript. In addition, I am indebted to the Division of Research and to the Office of Research and Advanced Studies at Indiana University for financial support. As the reader will observe, the techniques developed in Chapters 3 and 4 of this monograph are illustrated using input-output data from West Virginia. These data were generously made available by William H. Miernyk, Director of the Regional Research Institute at West Virginia University. I also wish to acknowledge the Bureau of Business and Eco nomic Research at Arizona State University for providing two research assistants, Kevin A. Nosbisch and Tom R. Rex, who aided in processing the West Virginia data. A third research assistant, Phillip M. Cano, also worked on this project as part of an independent study program taken under my direction during the spring semester of 1975. Finally, I must thank Mary Holguin and Margaret Shumway who expertly typed the final copy of the manuscript. Despite the efforts of all the individuals mentioned above, I assume responsibility for any errors which may remain.

Environmental problems, as far as they raise economic questions, even conflicting with pre-ecology economics, can be tackled in different ways. The way chosen by Bernard Coupe was not the French 'voie royale', -a Louis-XIV equivalent of a speedway - but the narrow path, con sisting in carefully implementing a simple but valid model. This model is amenable to many extensions, but it reveals the core of some economic-ecological problems: the search for acceptable solutions when one is confronted with a set of rather narrow constraints. A not uninteresting finding is that 'full-employment' solutions do seem to exist, though leading to different uses of the product made available. How such solutions are to be politically implemented is then a further stage of the reasoning, not taken up in this book. We spent, Bernard and I, many a well-filled hour in discussing the technicalities of the exercise: the consumption and investment functions, with their estimation problems, the treatment of the transportation sector, problems in geometric programming, et de quibusdam aliis. Especially when prefacing the final product, one is particularly pleased to be able to evoke the times past, but well spent. Bernard Coupe will certainly in the course of his development work in Africa, use the spirit and techniques of this approach. We can expect in the future some good reporting on this facet of his work too.

For many years the integration of the location of land use and activities in spatial systems, as well as the provision of transport in movement of goods, services and people, has been recognized as a challenge amongst various specialists, including: engineers, transportation planners, economists, environmentalists, urban and regional planners and developers. The purpose of this book is to address transportation modelling in terms of technology, techniques and methodology application in context to the interface between transportation systems, land use planning, and environmental challenges and application. The methodology of transportation modelling is applied to international practices and application based on specific case studies, inclusive of public transportation projects; transportation modelling techniques in practice; international research agenda; network design and channel strategies; strategic planning; application of technology in traffic surveys and interpretation; emissions from transportation systems; application of mathematical models and the interface between environment, land use and development in terms of location in space and the resulting activities. Of value to both theorists and practitioners, this book references the integration of transportation modelling techniques within an interdisciplinary environment inside all spatial systems.