Future War And Counterproliferation

The United States faces a small number of rogue states that either have or are working to acquire weapons of mass destruction. These NASTIs, or NBC-Arming Sponsors of Terrorism and Intervention, include such states as North Korea, Iraq, Iran, Libya, and Syria. U.S. nonproliferation programs and policies have helped to keep this number small, but U.S. and allied counterproliferation programs are essential to reduce the danger. It is up to deterrence, active defenses, passive defenses, decontamination, and counterforce to turn enemy weapons of mass destruction into instruments of limited destructive effect. Warfighters will also have to adopt a different strategy and concept of operations in fighting an adversary that is so heavily armed. This strategy will feature a combination of deception, dispersion, mobility and maneuver, diffused logistics, remote engagement, missile defense bubbles, non-combatant evacuation operations, and large area decontamination. It will also involve upgrades to NBC passive defense measures and equipment, as well as a counterforce capability that can find and destroy a variety of adversary targets, including mobile launchers and deeply buried and hardened underground structures.

In December 1993, Secretary of Defense Les Aspin announced the Counterproliferation Initiative, a response to President Clinton's assertion that if we do not stem the proliferation of the world's deadliest weapons, no democracy can feel secure. This timely book brings together contributions from a wide range of experts to help readers understand how far the nation has come since then—and what still needs to happen. Insightful essays examine: arms control treaty programs; export control regimes; interdiction; diplomatic/economic/political persuasion and sanctions; deterrence; counterforce; active and passive defense; and consequence management. Many positive changes have occurred since 1993. Regime changes in Iraq and South Africa have removed some WMD proliferation threats. Saddam Hussein has been overthrown, and a new Iraq is beginning to emerge. South Africa's clandestine WMD program has apparently ended. Libya announced it has given up its efforts to have active WMD programs. The Taliban and al Qaeda have been routed in Afghanistan, probably delaying efforts to develop or buy WMD. Yet, states continue to develop and export WMD and/or their delivery systems. As many as 30 states are still believed to have either a nuclear, biological, or chemical weapons program. Some have all three. India and Pakistan have acknowledged programs. Abdul Qadeer Khan, the scientist who directed the Pakistani A-bomb program, has admitted selling nuclear weapons designs, and nuclear enrichment equipment to Libya, Iran, and North Korea. His colleagues have held discussions with al Qaeda representatives. Ayman Al-Zawahiri, number two in the al Qaeda chain of command, claims that the terrorist organization has several suitcase A-bombs from the Former Soviet Union. It appears clear to many that Iran has a desire to develop nuclear weapons. Syria still has a chemical weapons program. North Korea's WMD profile has escalated. As Avoiding the Abyss so convincingly demonstrates, much has been accomplished since the Counterproliferation Initiative was launched-but much work still lies ahead. It is an important story for every American.

A new threat is stalking nations, as terrorist organizations and rogue states alike appear intent on acquiring and using the poor man's nuclear weapon: biological agents such as anthrax, smallpox, and plague. Attacks against Americans during the past dozen years may be an indication of more worrisome events to come. U.S. military forces in Japan were attacked in April of 1990 with botulinum toxin by the Aum Shinrikyo cult. Hundreds in Oregon were sickened with Salmonella after an attack in 1984. And small amounts of anthrax resulted in widespread panic and frequent evacuations across the United States in the fall of 2001. Ten experts discuss in detail the threats posed by bio-weapons and assess the current state of U.S. biological defenses. Chapters highlight the future prospects for biological warfare, bio-weapons in the Middle East, potential agroterrorism, the emerging bio-cruise missile threat, prevalent myths and likely scenarios, as well as the public health response. The promise of future world peace after World War II was quickly shattered by the Cold War. Indeed, the nuclear age was born at a time when the world seemed to be emerging from a dark past into a hopeful future. Are we to repeat history? With the end of the Cold War, does the future hold even greater threats? Or is an old threat merely resurfacing with a new level of lethality? This book should be required reading for anyone interested in national security, as well as concerned citizens who wish to know what form this new enemy may take and what can be done to stop it.

The proliferation of nuclear, biological, and chemical (NBC) weapons poses major strategic and operational challenges to the United States and an important political challenge to the international community. In the hands of hostile states, these weapons threaten stability in key regions, put U.S. forces at risk, and undermine the U.S. ability to project power and to reassure friends and allies. Increasingly, the American homeland is at risk as well. U.S. intelligence officials routinely warn that more than a dozen states are actively pursuing offensive chemical or biological weapons programs. Moreover, the 1998 Indian and Pakistani nuclear tests, as well as lingering concerns over the status of the North Korean program, underscore the continuing nuclear aspirations of key states. Many states also seek ballistic and, increasingly, cruise missiles or other platforms capable of delivering NBC payloads. Proliferation trends point to a problem of growing complexity: a deepening of NBC capabilities among current proliferators; the spread of NBC-relevant technologies that comprise virtual capabilities for would be future proliferators; and the growing potential for subnational or statesponsored NBC terrorism.

This series takes a comprehensive look at five major conflicts in the later part of the 20th century.

This is a book about strategy and war fighting. It contains 11 essays which examine topics such as military operations against a well-armed rogue state, the potential of parallel warfare strategy for different kinds of states, the revolutionary potential of information warfare, the lethal possibilities of biological warfare and the elements of an ongoing revolution in military affairs. The purpose of the book is to focus attention on the operational problems, enemy strategies and threat that will confront U.S. national security decision makers in the twenty-first century.