Global Economic Prospects 2005

This annual publication analyses the global and national dimensions of the investment climate for developing countries, in terms of the policy and institutional environment. This edition examines the growth of regional trade agreements, which have risen eight-fold in two decades with currently, as much as 40 percent of global trade taking place among countries that have some form of reciprocal regional trade agreement. Issues discussed include: regional trading trends; effects of regional agreements on trade creation, trade facilitation and services, investment, intellectual property rights, and labour mobility; whether the proliferation of agreements poses risks for multilateral trading system, and if so, options for managing them. The report finds that agreements leading to open regionalism (that is, deeper integration of trade as a result of low external tariffs, increased services competition, and efforts to reduce cross-border and customs delays costs) are effective as part of a larger trade strategy to promote growth. Although regional agreements can prove beneficial to member countries, they can have adverse effects on excluded countries, and the lowering of border barriers around the world is crucial to minimising these effects. The completion of the Doha Development Agenda by all WTO countries will reduce the risk of trade diversion associated with regional agreements and will decrease trade losses of countries excluded from agreements.

This joint report reviews recent performance and short term prospects for the world economy and considers some key global economic policy and development issues. Findings include that growth of gross world product (GWP) increased by four per cent in 2004, compared with a rate of 2.8 per cent in 2003 and a forecast of 3.25 per cent for 2005. Growth in the developing countries was the fastest for more than two decades, with output in transition economies continued to increase more rapidly than in other major country groups. Among developed countries performance was more varied, with growth rates strong in North America, moderate in Japan and weak in Europe.

According To This Report The World Economy Has Considerable Momentum Entering 2005 And Most Determinants Of The Short-Term Prospects Remain Positive, With Only A Modest Deceleration.

The World Economic Outlook, published twice a year in English, French, Spanish, and Arabic, presents IMF staff economists' analyses of global economic developments during the near and medium term. Chapters give an overview of the world economy; consider issues affecting industrial countries, developing countries, and economies in transition to market; and address topics of pressing current interest. Annexes, boxes, charts, and an extensive statistical appendix augment the text.

The world economy is experiencing a very strong but uneven recovery, with many emerging market and developing economies facing obstacles to vaccination. The global outlook remains uncertain, with major risks around the path of the pandemic and the possibility of financial stress amid large debt loads. Policy makers face a difficult balancing act as they seek to nurture the recovery while safeguarding price stability and fiscal sustainability. A comprehensive set of policies will be required to promote a strong recovery that mitigates inequality and enhances environmental sustainability, ultimately putting economies on a path of green, resilient, and inclusive development. Prominent among the necessary policies are efforts to lower trade costs so that trade can once again become a robust engine of growth. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.