Grenada 2022 Article Iv Consultation Press Release Staff Report And Statement By The Executive Director For Grenada

Grenada’s economy was hit hard by the pandemic, with a decline in real output of 14 percent in 2020 from both a collapse of tourism-related activities and the suspension of in-person classes at Saint George’s University (SGU). Growth in 2021 is estimated to have partly recovered to 5.6 percent, driven by construction and agriculture. The authorities’ policy response helped mitigate the pandemic’s impact through containment measures, increased health and social spending, and an expanded public investment program (including to build resilience to natural disasters). Central government debt rose to 70 percent of GDP in 2021 (from 59 percent in 2019) and the external position has worsened. The financial sector has so far weathered the crisis well.

Grenada is simultaneously navigating the recovery from the pandemic and a rise in energy and food prices. Growth is estimated to have reached 6.4 percent in 2022, driven by a tourism rebound and private and public construction projects. Inflation rose from 1.9 percent at end-2021 to 2.9 percent by end-2022. The authorities’ policy response—facilitated by the build-up of fiscal buffers over the past decade—dampened the pass through from rising global food and fuel prices. Public debt is now back on a downward trend. The financial sector is well-capitalized and liquid although non-performing loans of credit unions have risen.

The Bahamas is experiencing a tourism-led rebound. Real GDP growth in 2021 was close to 14 percent, as stayover tourist arrivals doubled relative to 2020. The economy is projected to expand by 8 percent in 2022. Nonetheless, it will likely take until 2024 to return to the 2019 level of GDP and the pandemic has given rise to significant human and social costs. The country’s medium-term growth challenges are likely worse than before, and public finances are in a more precarious state. Risks are skewed downwards given a difficult near-term financing situation, rising inflationary—and potentially BOP—pressures because of the war in Ukraine, an ongoing threat from the evolving pandemic, and the country’s high vulnerability to natural disasters.

Owing to improved policy frameworks and favorable external conditions, Grenada’s economy has been growing rapidly. Policies have remained prudent, helping reduce public debt and financial system vulnerabilities. The domestic policy debate is increasingly focused on using potential fiscal space for spending on public pensions and investment on building resilience to natural disasters.

St. Vincent and the Grenadines is recovering from the pandemic and 2021 volcanic eruptions. Despite the authorities’ strong efforts to contain deficits, critical fiscal responses to these shocks pushed up public debt, which—while assessed as sustainable—remains at high risk of distress should future shocks materialize. The economy is projected to grow by 5 percent in 2022, supported by large-scale investment projects and recoveries in tourism and agriculture. Surging commodity prices, fueled by Russia’s war in Ukraine, are expected to raise inflation sharply to 5.8 percent in 2022, adding to fiscal and external pressures and weighing on the recovery. So far, the financial system has weathered the shocks relatively well. The outlook is subject to significant downside risks primarily from an abrupt slowdown in trading partners’ growth, potential delays in investment projects including due to supply chain disruptions, and the ever-present threat of frequent natural disasters.

In the last three years, multiple global crises and the growing urgency of containing climate change have put current models of development co-operation to, perhaps, their most radical test in decades. The goal of a better world for all seems harder to reach, with new budgetary pressures, demands to provide regional and global public goods, elevated humanitarian needs, and increasingly complex political settings.

Cyprus is highly exposed to the fallout from the war in Ukraine through trade with Russia. This new challenge comes against the background of the lingering effects of the pandemic and financial vulnerabilities dating from the 2012–13 crisis. Growth is projected to slow from 51⁄2 percent in 2021 to around 2 percent this year. Recovery will regain momentum in 2023, and is projected to continue in the medium term, supported by investments and structural reforms in the Recovery and Resilience Plan.

This paper highlights Grenada's Request for Emergency Assistance. The near-term economic outlook of Grenada is very difficult. Having grown by nearly 4 percent in the first half of the year, the economy is now projected to contract by more than 3 percent in 2004. The authorities, with the support of the international community, are responding swiftly to the emerging needs of the economy. The authorities have also requested a purchase under the IMF's policy on emergency assistance for natural disasters for an amount equivalent to SDR 2.93 million.