Guidance Note On The Assessment Of Reserve Adequacy And Related Considerations

operational guidance to staff on reserve adequacy discussions in the IMF’s bilateral and multilateral surveillance. It is based on the views presented in the policy paper Assessing Reserve Adequacy—Specific Proposals and the related Board discussion. The note addresses key issues related to Staff’s advice on the assessment of the adequacy of reserves and related items, including answering the following questions: What is the expected coverage of reserve issues at different stages of the bilateral surveillance process (Policy Note, mission, and Staff Report)? Which reserve adequacy tools best fit different economies based on their financial maturity, economic flexibility, and market access? What do possible reserve needs in mature markets relate to, and how can their adequacy be assessed? How can reserve adequacy discussions for emerging and deepening financial markets be tailored and applied to better evaluate reserve levels in: (i) commodity-intensive economies; (ii) countries with capital flow management measures (CFMs); and (iii) partially and fully dollarized economies? What reserve adequacy considerations hold for countries with limited access to capital markets? How can metrics for these economies be tailored to evaluate their reserve needs? How should potential drains on reserves be covered? What are the various measures of the cost of reserves for countries with and without market access?

This paper proposes Management’s response to the IEO’s Evaluation of International Reserves—IMF Concerns and Country Perspectives. The proposed implementation plan focuses on those recommendations that are not already being addressed by other recent Fund initiatives, and include: (i) a successor paper on reserve adequacy, which will review the work contained in the Fund’s 2011 Assessing Reserve Adequacy paper and develop additional and updated guidance where needed; (ii) the preparation of a staff guidance note for assessing adequacy; and (iii) additional engagement on reserve issues with members, the private sector, and academics.

This note aims to provide guidance on the key principles and considerations underlying the design of Fund-supported programs. The note expands on the previous operational guidance notes on conditionality published over 2003-2014, incorporating lessons from the 2018-19 Review of Conditionality, and other recent key policy developments including the recommendation of the Management’s Implementation Plan in response to Independent Evaluation Office (IEO)’s report on growth and adjustment in IMF-supported programs. The note in particular highlights operational advice to (i) improve the realism of macroeconomic forecast in programs and fostering a more systematic analysis of contingency plans and risks; (ii) improve the focus, depth, implementation, and tailoring of structural conditions (SCs), with due consideration of growth effects; and (iii) help strengthen the ownership of country authorities. Designed as a comprehensive reference and primer on program design and conditionality in an accessible and transparent manner, the note refers in summary to a broad range of economic and policy considerations over the lifecycle of Fund-supported programs. As with all guidance notes, the relevant IMF Executive Board Decisions remain the primary legal authority on matters covered in this note.

"This guidance note highlights the unique economic characteristics and constraints facing small developing states. It provides operational guidance on Fund engagement with such countries, including on how small state characteristics might shape Fund surveillance and financial support, program design, capacity building activities, and collaboration with other institutions and donors. The note updates the previous version that was published in May 2014. It incorporates modifications resulting from Board papers and related Executive Board discussions that have taken place since the March 2013 Board papers on small states, which provided the foundations of the original guidance note. Based on these inputs, five key thematic areas (G.R.O.W.TH.) have been identified as central to the policy dialogue: • Growth and job creation. With small states experiencing relatively weak growth since the 1990s, Fund staff working on small states should ensure an explicit focus on growth in both surveillance and program-related work. • Resilience to shocks. Small states experience higher macroeconomic volatility and more frequent natural disasters. Staff should be ready to advise on how to tailor macroeconomic policies to provide greater resilience to shocks and climate change. • Overall competitiveness. Options to improve relative prices may include exchange rate adjustment (where possible) or measures supportive of internal devaluation (if not), and efforts to improve the business climate, including through regional initiatives. • Workable fiscal and debt sustainability options. With many small states having very high debt burdens, reducing debt to manageable levels requires sustained fiscal consolidation with supporting policies and structural reforms. In cases where the amount of adjustment needed to restore debt sustainability is not feasible or adequate financing is not available, debt restructuring may be needed. • Thin financial sectors. Developing deeper and more competitive, yet sound, financial sectors contributes to macroeconomic stability and enhances the effectiveness of policy interventions while strengthening competitiveness by improving business access to financial services."

In response to the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, central banks have used all available instruments in their monetary policy tool-kit to avoid financial market disruptions and a collapse in real economic activities. These actions have expanded the size of their balance sheets and altered the composition of the asset-side. This edited book highlights how these assets are managed, providing an intellectual and practical contribution to an under-researched field of central bank responsibilities. It first reviews the sources and uses of domestic and international assets and how they complement—or possibly conflict with—the implementation of monetary policy goals. Next, the book examines the asset management mandate in a balance sheet context before turning to the investment decision-making process from strategic and tactical asset allocation to investment strategies, risk management, governance, reporting and control. Finally, it presents new developments in the field of managing assets at central banks. The individual chapters are written by central bankers, academics, and representatives from International Financial Institutions, each representing a particular aspect of the asset management practice. Practical and powerful insights from a hall of fame of investors, central bankers and scholars, are packed into this one volume. If you could have only one book on central bank asset management, this would be it. —Peter R. Fisher, Clinical Professor, Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth Jacob Bjorheim draws on his long experience in sovereign asset management to pull together a rich collection of insights from a broad range of expertise. Asset management at central banks has evolved and expanded considerably over the past decade. This book is a timely source of information and guidance. —Guy Debelle, Deputy Governor, Reserve Bank of Australia Central bank balance sheets have grown at a tremendous pace over the last decade and a half. Drawing on contributions from scholars and experienced central bankers from around the world, this timely and insightful book sheds light on how central banks are, and should be, managing their growing balance sheets. —Kjell G. Nyborg, Chaired Professor of Finance, University of Zurich, Author of Collateral Frameworks: The Open Secret of Central Banks Central banks and monetary authorities are charged with, and being held accountable for, managing portfolios of foreign currency assets of unprecedented size. The essays in this admirable book, written by some of the worlds most highly experienced officials, cover the full range of why and how this is currently being done and how new developments are affecting old practices. Interesting conceptually and immensely useful practically. —William White, Senior Fellow at the C.D. Howe Institute, former Head of the Monetary and Economic Department with the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) and chairman of the Economic and Development Review Committee at the OECD An excellent and timely review of modern international reserve management, which ought to be read by everyone working with, or simply interested in, international asset management and finance as well as monetary and economic policy. The spectrum of authors is broad and their combined insight is very valuable. —Tom A. Fearnley, Investment Director, Norwegian Ministry of Finance With “Asset Management at Central Banks and Monetary Authorities”, Jacob Bjorheim has achieved an editorial tour de force. The book assembles the insightful views of the leading experts in the field, both from an academic and practitioners’ perspective. It bridges the gap between the macroeconomics of central banks and the financial management of their reserves. A must read to understand how central banks are special in the group of institutional investors. —Eric Bouyé, Head of Asset Allocation and Quantitative Strategies, Treasury Department, The World Bank The balance sheet is a large and important toolbox for any central bank and specifically the foreign exchange reserves constitute one the more powerful of these tools. This book provides excellent insight in the various perspectives of managing reserves at a central bank. —Heidi Elmér, Director of Markets Department, Severiges Riksbank The world of international reserves has changed since the global financial crisis. In this volume, Jacob Bjorheim has assembled a stellar cast of experts to explain how and what that means for reserves management. With chapter authors like Andrew Ang, Jennifer Johnson-Calari, Robert McCauley, Ravi Menon, Simon Potter and Philip Turner, it is a book that every reserve manager must read. —Eli Remolona, Professor of Finance and Director of Central Banking, Asia School of Business in collaboration with MIT Sloan Jacob Bjorheim has succeeded in bringing together a first-class team of experts, and organising their contributions in an articulated journey from the central banks’ policy mandate to their asset management practices. An indispensable post-crisis update of the subject and a a required reading for anyone professionally involved with central bank’s asset management, or simply curious about a topic benefitting otherwise from limited research. —Louis de Montpellier, Former Global Head, Official Institutions Group, SSGA, and former Deputy Head, Banking Department, Bank for International Settlements (BIS), Basel At last, a book that shares with a wider audience, deep insight in a unique, challenging and ethical approach of asset management developed and implemented in the secretive world of central banks. If you wonder how to manage funds that stand ready for use at short notice in times of stress then this book is for you. Two features make it such a valuable read and a must-have reference: First, the very comprehensive list of themes covered from a rich diversity of angles. Second, the very impressive list of prominent institutions and authors that have contributed and shared their analysis and practical approaches of the issues presented. What is better than to get the information directly from first-hand practitioners, experts and managers themselves in their own words? —Jean-Pierre Matt, Former Head of Financial Analysis at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) and founder of Quanteis This book holds the promise to become the go-to guide for anyone wishing to learn more about the management of official foreign exchange reserves. Central bankers in particular, but also those providing services to central banks, will find benefit from the broad scope in subject matter and varied perspectives being presented. I am yet to see a compendium on official reserve management with similar reach in subject matter. —Leon Myburgh, Former Head Financial Markets Department, South African Reserve Bank (SARB), Pretoria This is an immensely timely book at a time when central bank operations, and their balance sheets, remain “larger for longer”. Following the Financial Crisis 10 years ago, and with the Covid-19 Recession about to break, central bank balance sheets are at the forefront of the authorities’ response to economic issues as never before. Yet the management of their now large-scale assets remains a little known and little studied area. The authors of this book combine extensive technical and practical experience, and their observations will fill an important gap in the literature at a critical time. —Freyr Hermannsson, Former Head of Treasury, Central Bank of Iceland, Reykjavík

This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights the improved near-term outlook for the Zambian economy in recent months, driven by good rains and the rising world copper price. The economy was in near-crisis conditions from the fourth quarter of 2015 through most of 2016, reflecting the impact of exogenous shocks and lax fiscal policy in the lead-up to general elections. The medium-term outlook for the economy is contingent on policies. Achieving sustained high and inclusive growth requires a stable macroeconomic environment as well as policies and reforms to increase productivity, enhance competitiveness, strengthen human capital and support financial inclusion for small and medium-scale enterprises.

What policy space does a country have for a short-term response to a catastrophic event? To quantify this space, the paper proposes a policy space index. The index combines a quantitative, albeit relatively limited and narrow, fiscal space concept with the indicators of nominal monetary space and reserve space. Each nominal policy space indicator is then adjusted for individual country’s institutional features, such as the status of its currency, income group, access to capital markets, debt distress level, and the exchange rate regime. The final policy space index is derived as a composite of the three nominal policy space indicators, each adjusted for five institutional features. This index is different from the approach to measure fiscal space at the IMF and requires more work before it can be used operationally. The proposed index allows measuring the overall policy space in each country directly in percent of GDP. By way of illustration, the paper applies the index to the Covid-19 crisis.

This Selected Issues paper estimates Ecuador’s potential growth in the range of 1 3/4 to 3 percent. The lower estimate corresponds to an extrapolation of recent trends while the higher estimate could be achievable through the implementation of a reform agenda that addresses fiscal and competitiveness challenges of Ecuador. The paper also develops models to nowcast and forecast GDP to improve the accuracy of growth projections. The oil sector remains an important driver of economic activity; however, it is not as important as it once was. A simple growth accounting exercise is used to decompose Ecuador’s growth between production factors accumulation; capital and labor, and total factor productivity. The study shows that low total factor productivity is the reason behind Ecuador’s recent economic decline and has been a negative contributor to long-term growth. The paper also explores different vector autoregression models to identify the best one to forecast real GDP in Ecuador.