Human Judgment And Social Policy

With numerous examples from law, medicine, engineering, and economics, the author presents a comprehensive examination of the underlying dynamics of judgment, dramatizing its important role in the formation of social policies which affect us all.

From various vantage points the authors consider the topic of judgment and decision in policy formation. Richard Lamm, governor of Colorado, describes the problem of utilizing scientific knowledge in the context of political survival. Joseph Coates, assistant to the director, Congressional Office of Technology Assessment, explores the nature of public policy issues. Kenneth Hammond, director of the Center for the Study of Judgment and decision in Policy Formation at the University of Colorado, describes the competence of thought that can he brought to bear on public policy issues. Paul Slovic, Decision Research Inc., addresses the problem of risk assessment in policy formation from the point of view of a cognitive psychologist. Ward Edwards, director, Social Science Research Institute, University of Southern California, describes the general manner in which decision theory may be applied to policy formation. Kenneth Boulding, program director, Institute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado, provides an overview of judgment and decision in policy formation. Eillel Einhorn, professor of industrial psychology, University of Chicago, shows the consequences of fallible judgment for social policy formation. Kenneth Hammond and Leonard Adelman provide an example of the application of judgment analysis to a public policy issue.

Hammond has changed the way academics think about decision making; with this book, he aims to show a larger audience why mistaken judgments happen, how to make better decisions, and how to understand the thought modes operating in the political process.

"In Social Life and Moral Judgment, author and philosopher Antony Flew examines the social problems induced by the mature welfare state. Welfare states make ever-increasing financial demands on their citizenry, yet the evidence clearly supports that such demands are not sustainable. In this superlative collection of thematic essays, Flew investigates and explains why this is so, and calls for a return to individual responsibility.The first essay establishes the philosophical basis for his argument. ""Is Human Sociobiology Possible?"" answers its titular question in the negative, asserting that we are all members of a peculiar type of creature that can, and therefore must, be responsible for whatever choices between various courses of action or inaction that are open to us as individuals. In other essays, Flew shows how state welfare systems inevitably corrupt and demoralize their citizens by encouraging ever-more people to apply for welfare entitlements and reducing the incentives to avoid or escape the conditions warranting those entitlements. He investigates the origins of this new kind of welfare entitlement, and shows how very different what politicians and public sector employees produce is from what these people claim to be producing.Flew shows that the drive for ""social"" justice appears to require that the justly acquired income and wealth of all citizens should be progressively taxed away or supplemented by the state so that the eventual result is more, though never perfect, equality. This objective, he asserts, must be radically distinguished from old-fashioned, without prefix or suffix, justice. It was this type of justice Adam Smith referred to when he famously said that it is a virtue ""of which the observance is not left to the freedom of our wills"" but ""which may be extorted by force."" Flew question the aims of those who would discredit wealth creators and wealth-creating investment, showing that these are the same people who prom"

Human Judgment and Decision Processes in Applied Settings is the second to two volumes that attempt to define the areas of progress in the understanding of human decision making processes. The first volume, Human Judgment and Decision Processes (Academic Press, 1975) was concerned with formal and mathematical approaches to the problems of judgment and decision making. The major theoretical orientations (information integration theory, signal detection theory, portfolio theory, and multiattribute-utility measurement) were presented and their rationales discussed. The present volume is concerned with the application of these theories, and the various techniques derived from them, to the problems of decision making in the everyday world. The chapters reflect the many modifications and adjustments that must be made to mathematical rules in order to apply decision theory models in the real world. The tools described serve a broad variety of interests: those of the urban health or social planner, the organizational manager, the researcher, the educator, and, in fact, all of those who must weight evidence to reach decisions. Planner, manager, researcher, teacher, policymaker—all will find assistance in overcoming the commonly encountered roadblocks when one must choose between alternatives in what remains an uncertain world.

There are four basic goals for research in SJT (Social Judgment Theory): - to analyze judgment tasks and judgmental processes; - to analyze the relations between judgmental systems (i.e. to analyze agreement and its structure), and between tasks and judgmental systems (i.e. to analyze achievement and its structure; - to understand how relations between judgmental systems and between judgmental systems and tasks come to be whatever they are (i.e. to understand processes of communication and learning and their effects upon achievement and agreement); - to find means of improving the relation between judgmental systems (improving agreement) and between judgmental systems and tasks (improving achievement).