In Good Times Prepare For Crisis

Sovereign debt crises are a little like the weather: One can get ready to endure them and maybe take some steps to lessen their impact, but so far it hasn't been possible to prevent them. Like the weather, they just keep happening. That's the overriding thesis of this book tracing the major debt crises of the past century, starting with the Great Depression and running through the recent Great Recession. Written by a former World Bank expert on debt crises, this book discusses best practices for how such crises can be resolved. As the painful experience of the past decade reminded everyone, frequent debt crises and defaults do great damage to economies and cause vast personal hardship. But resolving them has proven difficult—both economically and politically—and has taken time, almost always requiring a lender of last resort such as a country's central bank or the International Monetary Fund. Too often, efforts to end debt crises have been little more than a palliative, and the debt overhang from one crisis contributes to the next, as illustrated by the ongoing saga in Greece. Both private and sovereign debts have increased substantially since the 2008 crisis, with inadequate deleveraging. This debt overhang leaves countries vulnerable and with limited maneuverability to address the next crisis. This book does not pretend to describe how debt crises can be prevented. But it does draw useful lessons from recent crises that can help economists, bankers, policymakers, and others resolve the inevitable future crises with the least possible damage.

Peaceful Revolution -- Post-Communist Transformation -- European Integration -- Sovereign Debt Debacle -- Migration Wave -- Brexit Self-Destruction -- Economic Competitiveness -- Restructured Welfare State -- Protected Environment -- Defense Disagreements -- Populist Backlash -- Global Role.

Research and analysis underpinning the IMF's position on the evolving role of fiscal policy in both advanced and emerging economics. Fiscal policy makers have faced an extraordinarily challenging environment over the last few years. At the outset of the global financial crisis, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for the first time advocated a fiscal expansion across all countries able to afford it, a seeming departure from the long-held consensus among economists that monetary policy rather than fiscal policy was the appropriate response to fluctuations in economic activity. Since then, the IMF has emphasized that the speed of fiscal adjustment should be determined by the specific circumstances in each country. Its recommendation that deficit reduction proceed steadily, but gradually, positions the IMF between the fiscal doves (who argue for postponing fiscal adjustment altogether) and the fiscal hawks (who argue for a front-loaded adjustment). This volume brings together the analysis underpinning the IMF's position on the evolving role of fiscal policy. After establishing its analytical foundation, with chapters on such topics as fiscal risk and debt dynamics, the book analyzes the buildup of fiscal vulnerabilities before the crisis, presents the policy response during the crisis, discusses the fiscal outlook and policy challenges ahead, and offers lessons learned from the crisis and its aftermath. Topics discussed include a historical view of debt accumulation; the timing, size, and composition of fiscal stimulus packages in advanced and emerging economies; the heated debate surrounding the size of fiscal multipliers and the effectiveness of fiscal policy as a countercyclical tool; coordination of fiscal and monetary policies; the sovereign debt crisis in Europe; and institutional reform aimed at fostering fiscal discipline. Contributors Ali Abbas, Nate Arnold, Aqib Aslam, Thomas Baunsgaard, Nazim Belhocine, Dora Benedek, Carlo Cottarelli, Petra Dacheva, Mark De Broeck, Xavier Debrun, Asmaa ElGanainy, Julio Escolano, Lorenzo Forni, Philip Gerson, Borja Gracia,, Martine Guerguil, Alejandro Guerson, Laura Jaramillo, Jiri Jonas, Mika Kortelainen, Manmohan Kumar, Suchitra, Kumarapathy, Douglas Laxton, Pablo Lopez-Murphy, Thornton Matheson, Jimmy McHugh, Uffe Mikkelsen, Kyung-Seol Min, Aiko Mineshima, Marialuz Moreno, John Norregaard, Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, Iva Petrova, Tigran Poghosyan, Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro, Anna Shabunina, Andrea Schaechter, Jack Selody, Abdelhak Senhadji, Baoping Shang, Mauricio Soto, Bruno Versailles, Anke Weber, Jaejoon Woo, Li Zeng

A major source of financing for the poor and no longer a niche industry Over the past four decades, microfinance—the provision of loans, savings, and insurance to small businesses and entrepreneurs shut out of traditional capital markets—has grown from a niche service in Bangladesh and a few other countries to a significant global source of financing. Some 200 million people globally now receive support from microfinance institutions, with most of the recipients in the developing world. In the beginning, much of the microfinance industry was managed by non-governmental organizations, but today the majority of these institutions are commercial and regulated by governments, and they provide safe places for the poor to save, as well as offering much-needed capital and other financial services. Now out of infancy, the microfinance industry faces major challenges, including its ability to deal with mobile banking and other technology and concerns that some markets are now over-saturated with microfinance. How the industry deals with these and other challenges will determine whether it will continue to grow or will be subsumed within the larger global financial sector. This book is based on the results of a workshop at Lehigh University among thirty-four leaders in the industry. The editors, working with contributions from more than a dozen leading authorities in the field, tell the important story of how microfinance developed, how it has met the needs of hundreds of millions of people, and they address key questions about how it can continue to meet those needs in the future.

How do leaders learn to lead? How do leaders set themselves up for success? This book explores the real-life experiences of a wide variety of leaders from different industries, sectors, and countries to bring to light new lessons on the importance of life-long learning. Consisting primarily of a series of probing interviews, Good Leaders Learn presents the challenges, triumphs, and reflections of 31 senior and high-profile leaders, offering insight into how they learned to lead during their careers. The book pulls important and useful perspectives into a robust theoretical framework that includes the importance of innate curiosity, challenging oneself, risk-taking, and other key elements of good leadership. With practical insights complemented by the latest leadership research and theory, this book will help current and potential leaders to build a solid foundation of the leadership qualities vital to their continuing success.

Turbulent times occur due to crises, which can happen at any time and in any organisation. Even if the firm is doing well today, it does not eradicate the possibility of the firm being thrown into trouble in the nearest future. No one can predict the future. While leaders of a company are enjoying the good times, they should equally consider the possibility of turbulent times; as a result, they should prepare for eventualities. They should get themselves ready for those times that crisis will be the order of the day. No one wishes for crises, but the crisis does not come by wishing for them; they come a random and the causes can be internal or external. Preparing ahead of time can prevent the problems of under preparation for crises. A company and its management should understand how to manage crises situations when such arise. The leaders in a company should be visionary enough to get them set for any problem that may arise.

Eavesdrop on a top business leader to learn the secrets of great leadership Building People provides a glimpse into the mind of one of Asia’s keenest and most effective business leaders. Before becoming Chairman of Changi Airport Group and Surbana Jurong, author Mun Leong Liew was named Best CEO in Singapore, Best CEO in Asia, CEO of the Year, Outstanding CEO of the Year, and more—but his successes are not based strictly upon the numbers. This book reveals the personal and professional philosophy behind this extraordinarily effective leader, in the context of frank and insightful emails to his staff. Touching on everything from honour and potential to training and mentorship, these messages paint a clear picture of the difference between good and great leadership. Effective leaders build companies, but legendary leaders build people—by strengthening the heart of your organisation, you enable robust growth and dynamic stability from the inside out. These emails go beyond mere public relations to lay open the true nature of a man who is honestly, deeply committed to his job, his responsibility, his organisation, and most of all, his people. Learn why work-life balance is not a zero-sum game Discover what pragmatism and commitment truly mean in business Realise the importance of good partnerships and unsung heroes Manage change effectively and employ it wisely for sustainable success By eavesdropping on a leader’s communications with the people he serves, you get a real sense of the man behind the success. Great leadership is rooted in a philosophy of “building up” instead of tearing down, and motivated by the sincere belief that we bring our own purpose into everything we do. Building People brings great leadership to life, and inspires action over theory through the insights of Mun Leong Liew.

This volume argues that good governance is crucial to the success of any regulatory regime, and explores how better governance of the financial sector can be achieved.