Income Diversification And Poverty In The Northern Uplands Of Vietnam

Vietnam has experienced macroeconomic stability and high rates of economic growth since the mid-1990s; nevertheless, it remains one of the 30 poorest countries in the world. Within Vietnam, the Northern Uplands is the poorest region, as well as being the most dependent on agriculture. This report examines income diversification in the Northern Uplands, including its contribution to poverty reduction and the constraints currently limiting further diversification. Given that crop and income diversification have been identified as essential components in raising rural incomes and reducing rural poverty, this report has significant implications for those involved in formulating agricultural policy and devising development programs.

With the adoption of new market-oriented policies, Vietnam has transformed itself from one of the world's poorest countries during the 1980s, into an economy with one of the highest growth rates during the 1990s. Using macroeconomic and household survey data, this publication examines a range of issues including: the causes of Vietnam's economic growth and future prospects; the impact on household welfare and poverty levels, school enrolment, child health and other socioeconomic outcomes; and the nature of poverty in Vietnam and the effectiveness of government policies for poverty reduction, drawing lessons for Vietnam and for other low-income developing countries.

This paper analyzes the impact of trade reforms on household welfare. In particular, it studies the importance of each of the links that together constitute the impact using data from the Vietnamese experience in the 1990s. The implementation of trade reforms in the 1990s, most noteworthy of which was the liberalization of rice, resulted in substantial improvement in welfare as evidenced by the drastic decline in poverty. Using analytical and empirical methods, the author examines the role of each channel (direct versus indirect) in this improvement for different groups of households. Results indicate that the growth has been broad based and pro-poor. Poorer households experienced more growth for each and every group analyzed. And contrary to the standard literature, net buyer households had more growth compared with net sellers, emphasizing the importance of indirect links. Decomposition of the growth shows that for rural households, both the direct effect and the multiplier effect drive growth while the multiplier effect was key in urban areas. The importance of the secondary effects underscores the need for a broader model to estimate the impact of trade reforms fully.

Vietnam's rapid growth has transformed the country, reducing poverty from about 75 percent of the population to about 50 percent. At the same time, its transition from a planned to a market economy has created new challenges for public policy in a wide range of areas. This volume explores issues such as which macroeconomic and structural reforms led to growth, what effect reform has had on the household economy, and how the transition has affected education, health, fertility, and child nutrition. It provides an analysis of economic and social policies and shows how micro-level data can be used to analyze the likely effect of different government expenditures and activities. It also focuses on the effect different policies have on the poor and challenges stereotypes about poverty-focused expenditures.

Are the household characteristics that are good for transition to a more diversified market-oriented development process in Vietnam also important for reducing poverty? Or are there tradeoffs? The determinants of both poverty incidence and participation in rural off-farm activities are modeled as functions of household and community characteristics using comprehensive national household surveys for 1993 and 1998. Despite some common causative factors, such as education and region of residence, the processes determining poverty and inhibiting diversification are clearly not the same. Participation in the emerging rural nonfarm market economy will be the route out of poverty for some, but certainly not all, of Vietnam's poor. This paper--a product of Public Services, Development Research Group--is part of a larger effort in the group to understand how to reduce poverty.

This book, first published in 1998, studies the social impact of Doi Moi, a policy of economic renovation, on the living conditions in state forest enterprises and agricultural cooperatives in northern Vietnam. It compares the authors’ findings with those of 1987, before the formal adoption of the new economic policies – essentially the opening up of the economy to market forces.

Abstract: Minot and Baulch combine household survey and census data to construct a provincial poverty map of Vietnam and evaluate the accuracy of geographically targeted antipoverty programs. First, they estimate per capita expenditure as a function of selected household and geographic characteristics using the 1998 Vietnam Living Standards Survey. Next, they combine the results with data on the same household characteristics from the 1999 census to estimate the incidence of poverty in each province. The results show that rural poverty is concentrated in 10 provinces in the Northern Uplands, 2 provinces in the Central Highlands, and 2 provinces in the Central Coast. The authors use Receiver Operating Characteristics curves to evaluate the effectiveness of geographic targeting. The results show that the existing poor communes system excludes large numbers of poor people, but there is potential for sharpening poverty targeting using a small number of easy-to-measure household characteristics. This paper is a joint product of Macroeconomics and Growth, Development Research Group, and the International Food Policy Research Institute. The authors may be contacted at n.minot@@cgiar.org or b.baulch@@lds.ac.uk.