Inflation And Stabilization In Latin America

A detailed analysis of economic policy in Latin America with particular attention devoted to the problem of controlling inflation and stabilization. Contents include an analysis of economic policies of the 1990s; country case studies of Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Argentina, and Bolivia; a thorough review of competing paradigms; a comparison of monitarist and structuralist approaches to the problem; mathematical and statistical modeling.

Case study of economic policy and monetary policy measures to achieve economic development and financial aspects stability in Bolivia illustrating the applicability of such anti-inflationary measures in Latin America - examines obstacles to development, factors which contributed to inflation (including the role of USA economic aid therein), the role of public enterprise, political problems, foreign exchange, price policy, etc. Bibliography pp. 759 to 770 and statistical tables.

Prepared papers and comments presented at the Conference on Inflation and Economic Growth held in Rio de Janeiro from Jan. 3-11, 1963. Summaries of discussions in panel sessions are also included.

Rampant inflation is a major economic problem in many of the less developed countries; two out of three attempts to stabilize these economies fail. Inflation Stabilization provides a valuable description and a critical analysis of the disinflation programs introduced in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, and Israel in 1985-86, and discusses the possibility of such a program in Mexico. It documents the initial steps in stabilization as well as the reasons for failure.As architects of the programs, several of the authors are in key positions to assess which aspects were critical in getting the programs accepted and where to look for difficulties and failures. In Israel, inflation was halted without recession. The challenge to policy makers today is in shifting from stabilization to the revival of sustained growth. This experience is described fully by Michael Bruno and Sylvia Piterman, who examine the critical issue of exchange rates, and by Alex Cukierman, who uses modeling to analyze the interaction of money, wages, prices, and activity under rational expectations that take the government's policy objectives into account.Endemic inflation and a sudden increase in external debt burden Argentina's economy, raising the wider issues of high inflation economies and stabilization that are discussed in the chapter by José Luis Machinea and that by Guido Di Tella and Alfredo Canavese.Eduardo Modiano and Mario Simonsen take up issues of wages in Brazil, particularly the problem of finding an equitable way to deal with a wage freeze; Simonsen develops an ambitious game theoretic rationalization of incomes policy as a coordinating device for imperfectly competitive economies. Bolivia did reach hyperinflation (price increases of more than 50 percent each month) before stabilizing. Juan Antonio Morales shows how stabilizing the exchange rate, in an economy where all pricing was already geared to the dollar, achieved stabilization without a wage or price freeze. And Francisco Gil Diaz asks whether an incomes-policy based program could work to control ever increasing inflation in Mexico.

The debt crisis in Latin America has rekindled debate about the effects of the IMF's stabilization programs in the Third World. Critics contend that these programs have short-run recessionary impacts and damage prospects for long-term growth. In response, Fund economists point to cross-country studies revealing mixed impacts on growth rates coupled with significant success in achieving the IMF's stated goals: current account and balance-of-payments improvements and inflation rate reduction. Dr. Pastor argues that the traditional growth-oriented critique is theoretically misplaced, and he recasts Fund activities in terms of class and income distribution. Applying the methodology of previous Fund studies, he evaluates the effects of IMF programs in eighteen Latin American countries in the pre-crisis period (1965-1981).

This paper reviews the role of fiscal policy in a number of stabilization programs in Latin America since the early 1980s. The paper highlights the importance of sustainable fiscal adjustment in stabilization efforts, and discusses the main issues that arise in this context. By reviewing the Latin American experience, it is argued that responsibility for failed stabilization attempts can be traced to four main factors: inconsistent policy mixes; excessive reliance on temporary factors of improvement in the fiscal accounts; failure to implement fundamental fiscal reforms; and lack of complementary structural reforms.