Inflation Targeting And Private Sector Forecasts

Transparency is one of the biggest innovations in central bank policy of the past quarter century. Modern central bankers believe that they should be as clear about their objectives and actions as possible. However, is greater transparency always beneficial? This report studies the degree to which increased info. about monetary policy might lead to individuals coordinating their forecasts. The authors estimate a series of simple models to measure the impact of inflation targeting on the dispersion of private sector forecasts of inflation. Using a panel data set that includes 15 countries over 20 years they find no convincing evidence that adopting an inflation targeting regime leads to a reduction in the dispersion of private sector forecasts of inflation.

I test whether inflation targeting (IT) enhances transparency using inflation forecast data for 11 IT adoption countries. IT adoption promotes convergence in forecast errors, suggesting that it enhances transparency. This effect is robust to dropping observations, is strengthened by using instrumental variable estimation to eliminate mean-reversion, and is absent in placebo regressions (where IT adoption is shifted by a year). This result supports Morris and Shin's (2002) contention that better public information is most beneficial for forecasters with bad private information. However, it does not support their hypothesis that better public information could make private forecasts less accurate.

There is now a remarkably strong consensus among academics and professional economists that central banks should adopt explicit inflation targets and that all key monetary policy decisions, especially those concerning interest rates, should be made with a view to ensuring that these targets are achieved. This book provides a comprehensive review of the experience of inflation targeting since its introduction in New Zealand in 1989 and looks in detail at what we can learn from the past twenty years and what challenges we may face in the future. Written by a distinguished team of academics and professional economists from central banks around the world, the book covers a wide range of issues including many that have arisen as a result of the recent financial crisis. It should be read by anyone concerned with better understanding inflation targeting and its past, present and future role within monetary policy.

Many central banks in emerging and advanced economies have adopted an inflation-forecast targeting (IFT) approach to monetary policy, in order to successfully establish a stable, low-inflation environment. To support policy making, each has developed a structured system of forecasting and policy analysis appropriate to its needs. A common component is a model-based forecast with an endogenous policy interest rate path. The approach is characterized, among other things, by transparent communications—some IFT central banks go so far as to publish their policy interest rate projection. Some elements of this regime, although a work still in progress, are worthy of consideration by central banks that have not yet officially adopted full-fledged inflation targeting.

Especially since the operational introduction as central bank monetary policy framework in the early 1990s in New Zealand, the United Kingdom (UK), Canada and Sweden, inflation targeting has gained both empirical and theoretical relevance as a monetary policy strategy. In this paper I relate to inflation targeting theory and its framework in the UK. For that purpose the author first regards the development of inflation targeting in respect to other monetary policy strategies. He answers the question what the actual target variable is and why one would want to have inflation being low and stable. Then there is some complexity because the development of inflation targeting has to be viewed in relation to paradigmatic debates between Monetarist and New-Keynesian insights. He present the two fundamental views of how an inflation targeting framework should be modelled. By stating some equations from basic theoretical literature, he gives an overview about the different characteristics of that monetary policy strategy and how there is still controversy about the way of modelling. One chapter is concerned with the operational framework in the UK, including statements to historical developments at the Bank of England. The present monetary policy framework will be reviewed in detail relating to the Bank's publication policy and the inflation forecasting process. The Bank of England's model of the transmission mechanism is reviewed. This includes the interest rate setting process, the role of money and the relationship between inflation and inflation expectations. Finally, he discusses some economic effects that changed the British economy since the introduction of inflation targeting.

This paper studies the role of central bank communication of its economic assessment in shaping inflation dynamics. Imperfect information about the central bank's assessment - or the basis for monetary policy decisions - could complicate the private sector's learning about its policy response function. We show how clear central bank communication, which facilitates agents' understanding of policy reasoning, could bring about less volatile inflation and interest rate dynamics, and afford the authorities with greater policy flexibility. We then estimate a simple monetary model to fit the Mexican economy, and use the suggested paramters to illustrate the model's quantitative implications in scenarios where the timing, nature and persistence of shocks are uncertain.