Intelligent Export Diversification An Export Recommendation System With Machine Learning

This paper presents a set of collaborative filtering algorithms that produce product recommendations to diversify and optimize a country's export structure in support of sustainable long-term growth. The recommendation system is able to accurately predict the historical trends in export content and structure for high-growth countries, such as China, India, Poland, and Chile, over 20-year spans. As a contemporary case study, the system is applied to Paraguay, to create recommendations for the country's export diversification strategy.

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This book includes the best studies on the results of the International Scientific and Practical Conference “New behaviors of market players in the digital economy,” which was held by the Institute of Scientific Communications on July 8, 2021, online, in YouTube format. This book is devoted to the study of digital economy markets from the standpoint of various market players—society (consumers), entrepreneurship, and the state—from the standpoint of various sciences—economic, managerial, social, and legal—which ensures the multidisciplinarity of the book. The uniqueness of the book lies in the application of a new scientific and methodological approach to the study of digital economy markets—simulation modeling. The advantages of a game-based scientific and methodological approach to reducing the uncertainty of economic processes and systems—a combination of quantitative and qualitative analytical methods, a systematic consideration of economic processes and systems from a socio-economic point of view—make it especially suitable for studying digital economy markets. The book identifies the impact of globalization and digitalization on the modern economy and industry markets. The trends and features of the use of advanced technologies in the digital economy markets are studied. The modern practices of business management and business integration in the digital economy are considered. The foundations of economic security and sustainable development of markets and enterprises in the digital economy are revealed. The book is suitable for scientists studying the markets of the digital economy, who will find in it scientific and methodological recommendations and developments on the application of game theory, as well as ready simulation models of the digital economy markets.

After successfully weathering the pandemic in 2020, Brunei was hit by new waves of COVID-19, with case numbers going up significantly and new lockdown measures imposed in H2 2021. Reduced activities in mining and LNG manufacturing, combined with the negative impact of new pandemic variants on domestic services, led to a slowdown in the economy. Real GDP contracted by 1.6 percent in 2021. For 2022, growth is projected to rebound to 1.2 percent, on the back of easing of mobility constraints and a positive terms of trade shock due to surges in O&G prices. Inflation, while remaining relatively low at 2.2 percent at end 2021, has increased in 2022 and pressures are expected to remain elevated in the short term, owing to supply disruptions and higher food and fuel prices. The economy continues to diversify, with double-digit growth of the food/agriculture sector and a new fertilizer sector commencing production. The risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside, due to potential new COVID-19 variants, increased global uncertainty associated with an escalation of the war in Ukraine, monetary tightening from the US and a larger-than-expected growth slowdown in China. On the upside, higher energy prices would further improve the terms of trade and restore fiscal positions in the short term, while partially contributing to build the buffers needed to ensure stronger intergenerational equity. Strong policy actions are needed to boost medium-term growth and foster resilience.

This paper studies the relationship between export structure and growth performance. We design an export recommendation system using a collaborative filtering algorithm based on countries' revealed comparative advantages. The system is used to produce export portfolio recommendations covering over 190 economies and over 30 years. We find that economies with their export structure more aligned with the recommended export structure achieve better growth performance, in terms of both higher GDP growth rate and lower growth volatility. These findings demonstrate that export structure matters for obtaining high and stable growth. Our recommendation system can serve as a practical tool for policymakers seeking actionable insights on their countries’ export potential and diversification strategies that may be complex and hard to quantify.

We identify key factors, from large set of potential determinants, that explain the variation in export diversification across countries and over time using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), which addresses model uncertainty and ranks factors in order of importance vis-a-vis their explanatory power. Our analysis suggests, in order to diversify, policy makers should prioritize human capital accumulation and reduce barriers to trade. Other policy areas include improving quality of institutions and developing the financial sector. For commodity exporters reducing barriers to trade is the most important driver of diversification, followed by improving education outcomes at the secondary level and financial sector development.

The 3-volume set CCIS 1252 until CCIS 1254 constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 6th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Security, ICAIS 2020, which was held in Hohhot, China, in July 2020. The conference was formerly called “International Conference on Cloud Computing and Security” with the acronym ICCCS. The total of 178 full papers and 8 short papers presented in this 3-volume proceedings was carefully reviewed and selected from 1064 submissions. The papers were organized in topical sections as follows: Part I: artificial intelligence; Part II: artificial intelligence; Internet of things; information security; Part III: information security; big data and cloud computing; information processing.

This study highlights the challenges faced by international traders and the types of efforts needed for greater regional and global economic integration. It will support the government at formulating trade reforms, and therefore enable the government to ensure the successful achievement of the global sustainable development goals. The recommendations were born out of consultations with the government, drawing on extensive field surveys targeting supply chain actors, legislative analysis and trade indices. The study also featured a special focus on female-owned enterprises, with a view to gaining a better understanding of the specific challenges to increasing their participation in international trade.