Ionospheric Predictions For

This book describes how to predict and forecast the state of planet Earth’s ionosphere under quiet and disturbed conditions in terms of dynamical processes in the weakly ionized plasma media of the upper atmosphere and their relation to available modern measurements and modelling techniques. It explains the close relationship between the state of the media and the radio wave propagation conditions via this media. The prediction and forecasting algorithms, methods and models are oriented towards providing a practical approach to ionospherically dependent systems design and engineering. Proper understanding of the ionosphere is of fundamental practical importance because it is an essential part of telecommunication and navigation systems that use the ionosphere to function or would function much better in its nonappearance on the Earth and on any planet with an atmosphere.

The ionosphere of the Earth has been actively studied since the 1920's, following the discovery of ground radio-sounding. By means of this method results were ohtained by an international network of ionospheric stations, in particular, by the successful implementation of a number of rigorously planned international scientific research programs,'" enabling the collection of extensive experimental material on some of the most important parameters of the ionosphere - the critical freLjuencies of E-, Fl and F2-layers. Comprehensive analyses of these observation data give a fairly complete picture of the various changes taking place in the principal ionospheric layers at different points on our globe. Another important aspect of the study of the ionosphere, which has been in progress for the past three decades, is an extensive program of in situ determinations of the various physical parameters - first using rockets, and subsequently artificial satellites. The data thus obtained on the principal ionizing agent - short-wave solar radiation - and on the physical conditions prevailing in the upper atmosphere and in the ionosphere at different altitudes, allow the proposal of a self-consistent mechanism of ionosphere formation. A general outline of the theory of ionosphere formation at different altitudes is now complete. Its application to specific cases, dependent on a more accurate determination of input parameters to give solutions valid for a definite set of conditions etc., is yet to be accomplished. The use of artificial satellites in cosmic research yielded abundant scientific data.

Using the method of Rush and Gibbs (1973), weighted means of observed values have been used to update the global prediction of f(o)F2, which are based on monthly median values derived from the Institute of Telecommunications Sciences model (1969). This procedure improved the predictions for magnetically quiet periods, for times near minimum of the solar cycle phase, and for the equinoctial months. Furthermore, a closer grid of ionosonde stations resulted in reducing the error in the f(o)F2 prediction. For the method of Rush and Gibbs (1973) to be operationally successful in global predictions of f(o)F2 however, a closer grid of ionosondes than is presently available is needed. (Author).

Numerical methods are developed for producing worldwide, long-term predictions of ionospheric characteristics. The methods are based on analyses of series of coefficients defining numerical maps, which take into account both annual and solar cycle variations of the ionosphere. The end product is a five-dimensional numerical map depending on two geographic coordinates, time of day (universal time), time of year, and solar index. Predicted numerical maps in geographical and universal time coordinates are obtained by specifying the month and a predicted value of solar index. The methods are applied to foF2 monthly medians, using for the analysis a series of 60 numerical maps from January 1954 through December 1958, Predicted and observed values of the characteristics are compared for a large sample of data.