Iran At The Crossroads

Iran stands at a critical juncture in its history. In the era of Presidents Hassan Rouhani and Barack Obama, the Islamic Republic has a unique opportunity to regain its traditional greatness as a cradle of rich civilisation and culture, with a capacity to be a very influential and stabilising regional actor. In this incisive analysis, Amin Saikal, a leading expert on Iranian politics, traces Iran's transition from pro-Western monarchy to Islamic Republic and explores the choices open to Rouhani's moderate reformist government. The Islamic Republic has endured a difficult journey throughout its existence. But since Khomeini assumed power in 1979 it has been characterised by a degree of exceptionalism, which has seen Iran lock horns with the United States and prove itself an effective and shrewdly calculating player on the international stage. Looking to the future, Saikal does not shy away from confronting the difficult choices facing Iran today. Failure to achieve reconciliation with the United States in the coming years, he argues, will not only have serious implications for Iran's internal stability and for the future security of the Middle East, but also for America's position within this volatile and unpredictable region.

The chapters in this book were written by me or solicited from renowned experts to produce a work that anticipated an imminent post- Khomeini period in Iranian history. The first draft was not ready until June 1989, practically coinciding with the death of Khomeini and the tenth anniversary of the Iranian Revolution-an important milestone after a decade of turmoil. The book you are about to read took some time to put together. Based on extensive research, the project was undertaken in early 1988 and ended about the spring of 1990. A sincere debt of gratitude is naturally owed to all of my contributors. But the preparation of any book does not take place in a financial void. My gratitude is especially extended to the academic vice-president of my university, Dr. Robert Burridge, for granting me the seed money from the university's Development Fund. Substantial financial assistance to cover the bulk of the logistical expenses was offered by the Canadian Institute of International Peace and Security in Ottawa and by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada through its program of aid to scholarly conferences.

At the dawn of the 21st century, we are witnessing the redefining and reforming of the Islamic Republic, a struggle between the President Khatami's reformist agenda and more militant conservative forces led by Ayatollah Khameni, Iran's Supreme Religious Guide. The Islamic Republic of Iran at 20 is a place of new promises and aspirations whose political, economic ,and socioeconomic struggles have significance not only for Iranians but also for Iran's relations with the international community. Iran at the Crossroads provides an intimate view of Iran, domestically and internationally, and the current struggle to reconstruct and thus relegitimate the revolution. This volume includes essays by American, European, and Iranian scholars writing on the extraordinary changing situation in Iran today.

The struggle between Khatami's so-called reformers and the so-called conservatives, led by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamene'i, has from the beginning been played out by forces that are far from unified on either side. The struggle has been played out against the backdrop of some consensus positions between the majority of the reformers and the majority of the conservatives, especially on the need for internal stability. However, recent events seem to indicate that a new and more confrontational phase in the relationship may be emerging. Given the foreign and domestic pressures on Iran, three scenarios have become possible. Iran may attempt to continue the status quo. While such an appeal may work in the short term, it is not likely to be sustainable unless economic reforms are launched. The second scenario of internal showdown and external calm posits that the international community, and especially the US, give Iran the space it needs to reform from within and is even able to promote the process through a combination of toughness as regards the conservatives and moderation as regards the reformers. Ultimately, Iran's internal factions will have to find their own way, and it could be a confrontational one if the reformers are determined to push their agenda through in the face of real resistance. Meanwhile, US actions in Iraq stand a good chance of radicalizing Iranian politics for at least the short-term. External showdown and internal unity in the face of a threat posits a real risk of US intervention in Iran in 12 to 18 months as the next step after Iraq has been successfully invaded and occupied. In the face of such a threat, most of the reformers and the conservatives may be expected to put aside their differences to meet the threat to their country, at least for a period of time. This would seem to be the least likely scenario. An invasion of Iran is quite a different matter to Iraq. However, the perceived threat of such an invasion may give the hard-liners an excuse to try to clamp down, which may then backfire. The world should be under no illusions as to how easy it will be for the reformers to wrest power away from the conservatives in Iran. If matters come to a real head, considerable chaos may ensue for a time.

This volume contains essays analyzing the state of Iran's nuclear program and the deterrent relationship between the United States and Iran since the nuclear agreement was presented; Iran's relations with specific Middle East states; and dominant political and social issues within Iran, and their influence on Iran's foreign policy. These trends and developments constitute a changing strategic environment for Iran, which necessarily affects Iran's geopolitical stature.