Is The Chinese Economy A Miracle Or A Bubble

This book presents a collection of articles by Lawrence Juen-yee Lau from 1994 to 2018, discussing Chinese economic development over the past decades. Lau evaluates the relative importance of different sources of growth for the Chinese economy and scrutinizes the strategy of reform and development at various stages.

Using a historical, comparative and analytic approach grounded in mainstream economics, the authors develop a consistent and rational framework of state-owned enterprises and individual agents to analyze the internal logic of the traditional Chinese planning system. In this revised edition, the authors update the data and information in the book and include a new chapter on the impact of China's WTO accession on its reform.

The truth about China’s financial industry—and the growing bubble that’s guaranteed to blow it apart... In recent years, the Chinese economy has been fueled by the implicit guarantee of major banks and local governments by the nation’s central government. The resultant bubble has led to the emergence of a large shadow banking industry that poses major risks to China’s real estate market, speculative stock investments, state-owned enterprises, and more. It’s not a matter of if China’s bubble will burst. It’s a matter of when. This eye-opening book from renowned financial scholar Ning Zhu provides a provocative in-depth analysis of China’s current economic practices—and the profound dangers they pose—as well as a powerful wake-up call to investors, regulators, and the entire financial industry. Zhu’s book is packed with startling revelations, including: * The enormous impact of China’s implicit guarantees on economic growth—and what will happen when those guarantees are gone * The ever-increasing size of China’s shadow banking industry—and how it’s just the tip of the iceberg * The once-reliable strength of China’s real estate and stock markets—and how they’re threatened by government distortion * The latest financial innovations and channels—and how they are circumventing regulations and triggering unprecedented risks Filled with fascinating case studies, worst case scenarios, and a well-argued case for much-needed reforms, Zhu’s enlightening book is a must-read for anyone with interests or investments in China’s rapidly changing economy. You’ll find intriguing new perspectives on traditional growth models, innovative solutions for overcapacity problems, and revealing new stats on so-called Voodoo Statistics. You’ll get a glimpse behind the curtain of the “unknown unknowns” of China’s implicit guarantees—and learn just how misleading these government policies can be. Most importantly, Zhu’s book provides solid recommendations for diffusing the time bomb these guarantees can and will set off. Brilliant, incisive, and ultimately optimistic, China’s Guaranteed Bubble will incite a much-needed call for change and set us on a new path of prosperity and growth—for China, the economy, and the world.

This book is unique in covering all important topics of the Chinese economy in depth but written in a language understandable to the layman and yet challenging to the expert. Beginning with entrepreneurship that propels the dynamic economic changes in China today, the book is organized into four broad parts to discuss China's economic development, to analyze significant economic issues, to recommend economic policies and to comment on the timely economic issues in the American economy for comparison.Unlike a textbook, the discussion is original and thought-provoking. It is written by a most distinguished economist who has studied the Chinese economy for thirty years, after making breathtaking contributions to the fields of econometrics, applied economics and dynamic economics and serving as a major adviser to the government of Taiwan during its period of rapid development in the 1960s and 1970s. In the last thirty years, the author has served as a major adviser to the government of China on economic reform and important economic policies and cooperated with the Ministry of Education to introduce and promote the development of modern economics in China, including training hundreds of economists in China and placing many graduate students to pursue a doctoral degrees in economics in leading universities in the US and Canada. These graduates now plays pivotal roles in China and in the US in academics, business or government institutions. The essays, a culmination of the author's expertise in China over five decades, are being widely read in China. When the author became professor emeritus at Princeton, the University named the Econometric Research Program as the Gregory C Chow Econometric Research Program in his honor.

Global econometric models have a long history. From the early 1970s to the present, as modeling techniques have advanced, different modeling paradigms have emerged and been used to support national and international policy making. One purpose of this volume -- based on a conference in recognition of the seminal impact of Nobel Prize winner in Economic Sciences Lawrence R Klein, whose pioneering work has spawned the field of international econometric modeling -- is to survey these developments from today's perspective. A second objective of the volume is to shed light on the wide range of attempts to broaden the scope of modeling on an international scale. Beyond new developments in traditional areas of the trade and financial flows, the volume reviews new approaches to the modeling of linkages between macroeconomic activity and individual economic units, new research on the analysis of trends in income distribution and economic wellbeing on a global scale, and innovative ideas about modeling the interactions between economic development and the environment. With the expansion of elaborated economic linkages, this volume makes an important contribution to the evolving literature of global econometric models.

Leading scholars examine China’s global strategic plans, from Hong Kong to military power, to economic dominance Over the past few decades, China has increasingly challenged the global influence of the United States. In China’s Grand Strategy, David B. H. Denoon brings together a group of eminent scholars to explain China’s rapid ascendance on the world stage, as well as its future implications for global politics. Contributors address the military, economic, diplomatic, and internal political factors shaping China’s strategy, in addition to highlighting Beijing’s objectives in different parts of the world, such as Central Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. Ultimately, they explore the promise and perils of China’s rapidly changing political ambitions, showing how the country has made its mark on the twenty-first century. China’s Grand Strategy provides insight into China’s quest to become a global leader, particularly at a time when the future of both China and the US remain uncertain in the context of current crises like the coronavirus pandemic, the ongoing protests in Hong Kong, and escalating tension between top leaders and officials. This book cannot predict the future for China or the US, but the insights offered can help make sense of where we have been and where we are going.

The rise of China is no doubt one of the most important events in world economic history since the Industrial Revolution. Mainstream economics, especially the institutional theory of economic development based on a dichotomy of extractive vs. inclusive political institutions, is highly inadequate in explaining China's rise. This book argues that only a radical reinterpretation of the history of the Industrial Revolution and the rise of the West (as incorrectly portrayed by the institutional theory) can fully explain China's growth miracle and why the determined rise of China is unstoppable despite its current "backward" financial system and political institutions. Conversely, China's spectacular and rapid transformation from an impoverished agrarian society to a formidable industrial superpower sheds considerable light on the fundamental shortcomings of the institutional theory and mainstream "blackboard" economic models, and provides more-accurate reevaluations of historical episodes such as Africa's enduring poverty trap despite radical political and economic reforms, Latin America's lost decades and frequent debt crises, 19th century Europe's great escape from the Malthusian trap, and the Industrial Revolution itself. Contents: IntroductionKey Steps Taken by China to Set Off an Industrial RevolutionShedding Light on the Nature and Cause of the Industrial RevolutionWhy is China's Rise Unstoppable?Wha's Wrong with the Washington Consensus and the Institutional Theories?Case Study of Yong Lian: A Poor Village's Path to Becoming a Modern Steel TownConclusion: A New Stage Theory of Economic Development Readership: Academics, undergraduate and graduates students, journalists and professionals interested in economic development, the history of the Industrial Revolution, and especially China's economic transformation and industrial growth, as well as the political economy of governance.

The recent economic rise of China and India has attracted a great deal of attention. Yet, many of the views regarding their market reforms and high growth have been tendentious, exaggerated, or oversimplified. Awakening Giants, Feet of Clay scrutinizes the phenomenal rise of both nations and demolishes the myths that have accumulated around the economic achievements of these two giants in the last quarter-century. Exploring the challenges that both countries must overcome to become true leaders in the international economy, Pranab Bardhan looks beyond short-run macroeconomic issues to examine structures, and current general performance. Full of valuable insights, Awakening Giants, Feet of Clay provides a nuanced picture of China and India's complex political economy at a time of startling global reconfiguration and change.