Italy 2021 Article Iv Consultation Press Release Staff Report And Statement By The Executive Director For Italy

The pandemic dealt a severe blow to the Italian people and their economy. GDP fell by nearly 9 percent in 2020, with much larger drops for contact-intensive services. Public and corporate debt increased strongly and preexisting vulnerabilities have likely worsened. The government is prioritizing resolving the health emergency and transforming the economy to lift productivity, improve social outcomes and strengthen resilience to future shocks and structural change. The large National Recovery and Resilience Plan—partly financed by sizable Next Generation EU resources—will be used to increase physical and social infrastructure. Outlook. GDP is expected to recover strongly in 2021–22 and to grow well-above trend over the medium term, supported by investment spending. Nonetheless, economic scarring could be sizable. The two-sided risks relate to how the pandemic progresses, the efficiency of investment spending and the extent of savings drawdown, with large costs associated with the downside.

GDP has fully recovered from the pandemic crisis, but government debt has risen to very high levels. The war in Ukraine triggered a surge in energy prices and the prospect of monetary policy tightening caused government bond yields to rise sharply. Implementation of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP), which provides large EU grants and loans conditioned on implementing a comprehensive reform and investment program, is underway.

The economic impact of the pandemic has been much milder than initially foreseen, still the outlook remains challenging. The economy, dominated by financial services, adapted quickly to telework and benefited from unprecedented policy support, both domestically and globally. Uncertainty is unusually high, dominated by the virus dynamics in the short term, with downside risks relating to a sharp rise in global risk premia, deglobalization trends, and changes in international taxation.

Germany’s economy contracted by just under 5 percent in 2020, outperforming most European peers. But renewed waves of infections and associated lockdowns caused economic activity to plunge again in the first quarter of this year. While the pace of mass vaccination has picked up and the economy has started to reopen, the recovery path is beset with risks, particularly with respect to the progress of the pandemic and supply shortages in major industries. The authorities have maintained appropriately accommodative fiscal and financial policies, and most measures supporting households and firms have been extended through 2021.

San Marino entered the pandemic with substantial vulnerabilities and still struggling from the consequences of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). However, the economy has shown significant resilience supported by a timely and targeted policy response. Fiscal support was substantially scaled up after external borrowing was secured, including through a debut Eurobond. The banking system was rationalized, partly capitalized, its liquidity substantially improved, and a strategy is being adopted to address exceptionally high nonperforming loans (NPLs). Some of these measures, while effective, have increased official public debt substantially.

The pandemic is inflicting much suffering, which has been met with swift, substantial, and well-coordinated policy responses. The anti-crisis measures have helped preserve jobs, provide liquidity to companies and income support to the vulnerable groups. They averted a larger decline in output and kept unemployment under control. After contracting by 5.5 percent in 2020, real GDP is projected to grow by 3.9 percent in 2021 and 4.5 percent in 2022, as vaccinations help achieve herd immunity. However, risks to the outlook are large and tilted to the downside, given the epidemiological situation.

Albania’s economy has shown considerable resilience in the face of the 2019 earthquake and the pandemic. After the hardship endured in 2020, real GDP is rebounding strongly by a projected 7.8 percent in 2021. Policies have played a critical role in preserving lives and livelihoods and thereby paving the way for the recovery. The key challenges now are to invest efficiently in people and the economy to support the continued development of the country and to rebuild room for fiscal policy maneuver by lowering the very high fiscal deficit and public debt.