Lessons From Russia S Operations In Crimea And Eastern Ukraine

This report assesses the annexation of Crimea by Russia (February–March 2014) and the early phases of political mobilization and combat operations in Eastern Ukraine (late February–late May 2014). It examines Russia’s approach, draws inferences from Moscow’s intentions, and evaluates the likelihood of such methods being used again elsewhere.

This report assesses the annexation of Crimea by Russia (February–March 2014) and the early phases of political mobilization and combat operations in Eastern Ukraine (late February–late May 2014). It examines Russia’s approach, draws inferences from Moscow’s intentions, and evaluates the likelihood of such methods being used again elsewhere.

The Russian Federation's 2014 operation to annex Crimea from Ukraine sparked an intense wave of literature on the nature of Russia's modern warfare practices. Most commonly, Western academics, politicians, and military leaders alike have labelled Russia's actions in Crimea and its follow-on operations in Eastern Ukraine as a new form of "hybrid warfare." Despite these claims, the 2014 Crimean operation was more accurately the Russian Federation's modern application of historic Soviet political warfare practices--the overt and covert informational, political, and military tools used to influence the actions of foreign governments and foreign populations. They involved the use of active measures, including propaganda, disinformation, front organizations, and forged political processes, as well as Maskirovka, the military's elaborate deception schemes. Two of the most prominent examples of the Soviet government's application of these political warfare techniques were the Warsaw Pact invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968 (the "Prague Spring") and the earliest stages of the invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. An in-depth case study analysis of these historical Soviet conflicts and the Russian annexation of Crimea demonstrates that the operation, which inspired discussions about Russian "hybrid warfare," was more accurately the modern adaptation of these Soviet political warfare tools than it was the invention of a new type of warfare.

In February 2014, Russia initiated a war in Ukraine, its reasons for aggression unclear. Each of this volume's authors offers a distinct interpretation of Russia's motivations, untangling the social, historical, and political factors that created this war and continually reignite its tensions. What prompted President Vladimir Putin to send troops into Crimea? Why did the conflict spread to eastern Ukraine with Russian support? What does the war say about Russia's political, economic, and social priorities, and how does the crisis expose differences between the EU and Russia regarding international jurisdiction? Did Putin's obsession with his macho image start this war, and is it preventing its resolution? The exploration of these and other questions gives historians, political watchers, and theorists a solid grasp of the events that have destabilized the region.

This vital report by the U.S. Army carefully examines the threat posed by the aggressive Russian strategy in Europe pursued by President Vladimir Putin. In the summer of 2014, Russia forcibly annexed Crimea from Ukraine and then actively supported ethnic Russian separatists in an on-going irredentist bid in Eastern Ukraine. This aggressive policy threatens to challenge NATO and the United States in its support of Ukraine and other nations of Eastern Europe. From this changing strategic environment, three central questions emerge: (1) What is the Russian strategy in their periphery? (2) What is the appropriate U.S. response? (3) What are the implications for U.S. landpower? Vladimir Putin's grand strategy relies on a complex mix of diplomatic, informational, military, and economic factors to preserve and expand Russian global power. Putin's strategy hinges on maintaining internal legitimacy, advancing a narrative of Russian greatness, manipulating nationalism, and protecting sources of revenue. He seizes opportunities to improve his position by controlling the media and the wealth of the elite class. Additionally, he maintains government control of large sectors of the Russian economy and industry, while engaging in energy politics abroad to advance its national interests. Finally, Putin is determined to keep former Soviet bloc countries oriented politically and economically toward Russia. In this, he espouses distinctly anti-Western rhetoric, casting NATO and the United States as Russian adversaries. Chapter 1: The Russian Strategic Environment * I. Historical Introduction * Russia yesterday * Russia today * Russia in crisis * II. Putin's Rise to Power * Out of nowhere * Putin's Russia * Establishing his rule * The man and his method * III. The Russian Military * Disarray * Ivanov doctrine * Continued reforms * Reforms since 2008 * Concerns * IV. The Russian Economy and Energy Sector * A weak ruble * Energy dependency * Impact of Ukraine crisis * Concerns * V. The Russian System * Trends * Tensions, frictions, and fissures * End state * VI. Conclusion * Chapter 2: Russian Landpower * I. Introduction * II. Recent Russian Military Operations * The 2008 Russia-Georgia Conflict * Russia's Lessons Learned * Georgia's Lessons Learned * III. The 2014-2015 Russian-Ukrainian Conflict * Russian Operations in Crimea * Russian Operations in Eastern Ukraine * IV. Recent Russian Military Operations: Similarities and Differences * Russian Landpower Today: State of Modernization and Readiness * Doctrine * Organization * Training * Materiel * Leadership * Personnel * V. Conclusion * Chapter 3 - The Emerging Russian approach * I. Strategy of Ambiguity * NATO/EU Divisions * Strategic Center of Gravity * Critical Capabilities * Critical Requirements * Flashpoints * Protection of Ethnic Russians Abroad * Western Alignment of a State * II. Anatomy of the Russian Response * The Russian Operational Approach * Objectives * Mechanisms * Desired Conditions * Lines of Operations and Examples * III. Assessment of Russian Strategy * IV. Conclusion * Chapter 4: Analysis and Recommendations * I. Introduction * II. Ends * Strategic Approach of the United States and NATO * III. Ways * Countering the Russian Approach to the Baltic States (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) * Countering the Russian Approach to Georgia and Ukraine * Countering the Russian Approach to Other Potential Russian Targets (Moldova and the Arctic) * IV. Putting the Army Operating Concept into Action * Where the Army Operating Concept Fits Well Where the Army Operating Concept Fits Well * Where the Army Operating Concept Falls Short * Tenets of Army Operations and the Current Force Structure in Europe * The Army Operating Concept: Risk and Mitigation * V. Means * Baltic States (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) * Georgia and Ukraine * Other Potential Russian Targets (Moldova and the Arctic) * Recommended Role for NATO

The rapid rise in Russia's power over the course of the last ten years has been matched by a stunning lack of international diplomacy on the part of its president, Vladimir Putin. One consequence of this, when combined with Europe's rapidly shifting geopolitics, is that the West is on a possible path toward nuclear war. Former deputy commander of NATO General Sir Richard Shirreff speaks out about this very real peril in this call to arms, a novel that is a barely disguised version of the truth. In chilling prose, it warns allied powers and the world at large that we risk catastrophic nuclear conflict if we fail to contain Russia's increasingly hostile actions. In a detailed plotline that draws upon Shirreff's years of experience in tactical military strategy, Shirreff lays out the most probable course of action Russia will take to expand its influence, predicting that it will begin with an invasion of the Baltic states. And with GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump recently declaring that he might not come to the aid of these NATO member nations were he to become president, the threat of an all-consuming global conflict is clearer than ever. This critical, chilling fictional look at our current geopolitical landscape, written by a top NATO commander, is both timely and necessary-a must-read for any fan of realistic military thrillers as well as all concerned citizens.