Macroeconomic Prospects For A Small Oil Exporting Country

Case study of the relationship between socioeconomic conditions, industrial development and industrialization policy in Kuwait - explains the importance of a diversified economic structure and self-sustainable long term economic growth for the post-petroleum era; covers economic and social development, labour demand, technology transfer, pricing of petroleum and petroleum products, income redistribution schemes, economic cooperation with the Gulf States, forecasting model, etc. Statistical tables.

This paper examines the impact of government size on how output and government expenditure respond to oil price shocks in 28 oil-exporting countries between 1990 and 2016. Results suggest that if the size of government (measured by government expenditure-to-(non-oil) GDP ratio) is larger, non-oil output growth, in response to a positive oil price shock, tends to be greater and output volatility higher. Furthermore, I find that an unexpected increase in oil price leads to expansion in government expenditure and the expansion is larger, the larger is the government. This paper provides empirical evidence for direct correlation between government size and macroecnomic stability in oil-exporting countries. The findings imply that fiscal consolidation and economic diversification help to narrow down economic exposure to exogenous oil price shocks and reduce volatility in non-oil output.

The sharp drop in oil prices is one of the most important global economic developments over the past year. The SDN finds that (i) supply factors have played a somewhat larger role than demand factors in driving the oil price drop, (ii) a substantial part of the price decline is expected to persist into the medium term, although there is large uncertainty, (iii) lower oil prices will support global growth, (iv) the sharp oil price drop could still trigger financial strains, and (v) policy responses should depend on the terms-of-trade impact, fiscal and external vulnerabilities, and domestic cyclical position.

countries face similar challenges to create jobs and foster more inclusive growth. The current environment of likely durable low oil prices has exacerbated these challenges. The non-oil private sector remains relatively small and, consequently, has been only a limited source of growth and employment. Because oil is an exhaustible resource, new sectors need to be developed so they can take over as the oil and gas industry dwindles. Over-reliance on oil also exacerbates macroeconomic volatility. Greater economic diversification would unlock job-creating growth, increase resilience to oil price volatility and improve prospects for future generations. Macro-economic stability and supportive regulatory and institutional frameworks are key prerequisites for economic diversification...

This paper presents a simple macroeconomic model of the oil market. The model incorporates features of oil supply such as depletion, endogenous oil exploration and extraction, as well as features of oil demand such as the secular increase in demand from emerging-market economies, usage efficiency, and endogenous demand responses. The model provides, inter alia, a useful analytical framework to explore the effects of: a change in world GDP growth; a change in the efficiency of oil usage; and a change in the supply of oil. Notwithstanding that shale oil production today is more responsive to prices than conventional oil, our analysis suggests that an era of prolonged low oil prices is likely to be followed by a period where oil prices overshoot their long-term upward trend.

Economic Analysis of Institutions and Systems aims to redirect the study of what was previously referred to as comparative economic systems toward analysis of the history and development of institutions, and the effects of alternative institutional arrangements on economic behavior. To this end, the book internalizes into a theoretical framework: (i) the effects of alternative institutions on the costs of transactions and incentive structures; (ii) the effects of the costs of transactions and incentives on economic behavior, and (iii) the evidence for refutable implications of those effects. In the process, it provides the logical premises for various institutions from which refutable implications can be deduced.

As they enter the new millennium, developing countries are struggling to recover from one of their deepest recessions since World War II. 'Global Economic Prospects 2000' will improve your understanding and keep you informed of the forces shaping today's changing global economy.The report offers an in-depth analysis of the economic prospects of developing economies in the wake of the financial crisis and as they enter the new millennium. It examines the impact of the recent financial crisis on growth and poverty in the developing world and reviews economic output, trade, and financial developments in industrial economies. 'Global Economic Prospects 2000' focuses on three main issues: • how Sub-Saharan African commodity exporters and major developing country oil exporters have adjusted to the sharp swings in commodity prices since the mid-1990s; • the extent of corporate restructuring in East Asia and its role in their recovery; • the impact of the recent crisis on poverty in developing countries. As in past editions, detailed statistical tables and an analysis of developments for each of the developing country regions are included.'Global Economic Prospects 2000' provides essential information for anyone concerned with the economic developments affecting our shifting global economy.