Global Economic Prospects And The Developing Countries

This edition of the annual publication considers the need to reshape the global architecture of world trade, in order to help strengthen the economies of developing countries and reduce world poverty. The report focuses on four policy areas: the establishment of a development round of WTO negotiations to reduce trade barriers; global co-operation to expand trade outside the WTO; the adoption of pro-trade development policies by high-income countries; and enacting trade reforms in developing countries. The findings of the report suggest that developing countries could significantly increase their incomes, if all countries progressively implement the proposed trade reforms. This would result in a world with a much higher standard of living, an estimated 300 million people lifted out of poverty by 2015, and a significant increase in the number of children living beyond their fifth birthday throughout the developing world.

As they enter the new millennium, developing countries are struggling to recover from one of their deepest recessions since World War II. 'Global Economic Prospects 2000' will improve your understanding and keep you informed of the forces shaping today's changing global economy.The report offers an in-depth analysis of the economic prospects of developing economies in the wake of the financial crisis and as they enter the new millennium. It examines the impact of the recent financial crisis on growth and poverty in the developing world and reviews economic output, trade, and financial developments in industrial economies. 'Global Economic Prospects 2000' focuses on three main issues: • how Sub-Saharan African commodity exporters and major developing country oil exporters have adjusted to the sharp swings in commodity prices since the mid-1990s; • the extent of corporate restructuring in East Asia and its role in their recovery; • the impact of the recent crisis on poverty in developing countries. As in past editions, detailed statistical tables and an analysis of developments for each of the developing country regions are included.'Global Economic Prospects 2000' provides essential information for anyone concerned with the economic developments affecting our shifting global economy.

This report deals with three issues that are central challenges facing developing countries as they participate in the global trading system.

Global growth is expected to be 2.8 percent in 2015, but is expected to pick up to 3.2 percent in 2016-17. Growth in developing countries and some high-income countries is set to disappoint again this year. The prospect of rising borrowing costs will compound the challenges many developing countries are facing as they adapt to an era of low commodity prices. Risks to this outlook remain tilted to the downside. This edition of Global Economic Prospects includes two Special Features that analyze the policy challenges raised by the two transitions in developing countries: the risks associated with the first U.S. central bank interest rate increase since 2006 and the implications of persistently low commodity prices for low-income countries. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on developing countries, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). The January edition includes in-depth analyses of topical policy challenges faced by developing countries while the June edition contains shorter analytical pieces.

Over the next 25 years developing countries will move to center stage in the global economy. Global Economic Prospects 2007 analyzes the opportunities - and stresses - this will create. While rich and poor countries alike stand to benefit, the integration process will make more acute stresses already apparent today - in income inequality, in labor markets, and in the environment. Over the next 25 years, rapid technological progress, burgeoning trade in goods and services, and integration of financial markets create the opportunity for faster long-term growth. However, some regions, notably Africa, are at risk of being left behind. The coming globalization will also see intensified stresses on the "global commons." Addressing global warming, preserving marine fisheries, and containing infectious diseases will require effective multilateral collaboration to ensure that economic growth and poverty reduction proceed without causing irreparable harm to future generations."

“The crisis has deeply impacted virtually every economy in the world, and although growth has returned, much progress in the fight against poverty has been lost. More difficult international conditions in the years to come will mean that developing countries will have to place even more emphasis on improving domestic economic conditions to achieve the kind of growth that can durably eradicate poverty.� —Justin Yifu Lin, Chief Economist and Senior Vice President The World Bank 'Global Economic Prospects 2010: Crisis, Finance, and Growth' explores both the short- and medium-term impacts of the financial crisis on developing countries. Although global growth has resumed, the recovery is fragile, and unless business and consumer demand strengthen, the world economy could slow down again. Even if, as appears likely, a double-dip recession is avoided, the recovery is expected to be slow. High unemployment and widespread restructuring will continue to characterize the global economy for the next several years. Already, the crisis has provoked large-scale human suffering. Some 64 million more people around the world are expected to be living on less than a $1.25 per day by the end of 2010, and between 30,000 and 50,000 more infants may have died of malnutrition in 2009 in Sub-Saharan Africa, than would have been the case if the crisis had not occurred. Over the medium term, economic growth is expected to recover. But increased risk aversion, a necessary and desirable tightening of financial regulations in high-income countries, and measures to reduce the exposure of developing economies to external shocks are likely to make finance scarcer and more costly than it was during the boom period. As a result, just as the ample liquidity of the early 2000s prompted an investment boom and an acceleration in developing-country potential output, higher costs will likely yield a slowing in developing-country potential growth rates of between 0.2 and 0.7 percentage points, and as much as an 8 percent decline in potential output over the medium term. In the longer term, however, developing countries can more than offset the implications of more expensive international finance by reducing the cost of capital channeled through their domestic financial markets. For more information, please visit www.worldbank.org/gep2010. To access Prospects for the Global Economy, an online companion publication, please visit www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook.