Managing Commodity Price Risk In Developing Countries

Primary commodities represent more than one-half of the export earnings of many developing countries. The large fluctuations that can occur in the prices of such commodities are therefore a main economic difficulty for these countries. New financial techniques can lower the risk caused by these price changes over longer periods and allow financial obligations to be linked to commodity prices. But few developing countries have used these techniques. This book shows policymakers in developing countries how to use the full range of new and established financial techniques. Through case studies, it provides detailed information about the techniques, analyzes the institutional constraints on them, and illustrates the kinds of technical assistance needed to make good use of them. It also describes the instruments, the markets, and the current regulatory framework. For the past several years, the World Bank has assisted developing countries in managing commodity price risk. The book draws extensively on the lessons learned from this assistance to demonstrate that developing countries can benefit significantly from using financial techniques to manage their risk.

Modern risk management techniques can help countries avoid the financial risks that affect future cash flows and long-term plans. They provide a hedge against profit fluctuations caused by changes in interest rates, exchange rates, and commodity prices. This easy-to-use guide examines the risk management tools developing countries have used successfully, including futures, options, forward contracts, commodity swaps, commodity bonds, commodity linked loans, currency rate swaps, and interest rate swaps. An action plan explains how to use the techniques wisely to avoid costly mistakes. It also describes the economic management and financial regulations countries must have in place before adopting any risk management techniques.

"This paper attempts to collect and systematize various pieces of UNCTAD's work related to government actions which affect the ability of producers, traders, exporters, importers and the government itself to use risk management markets and to enhance their access to much needed finance. The paper also benefits from additional materials produced elsewhere."--Introduction.

October 1996 Market liberalization has increased the appeal of commodity derivative instruments (such as futures, options, swaps, and commodity-linked notes) as a means of managing price uncertainty. In many emerging countries both government and the private sector are increasingly using these instruments. Liberalization in commodity markets has brought profound changes in the way price risks are allocated and managed in commodity subsectors. Price risks are increasingly allocated to private traders and farmers rather than absorbed by the government. The success of market reform depends on the ability of the emerging private sector to make full use of the available range of modern commodity marketing, price risk management (such as futures, options, swaps, commodity bonds, and so on), and financing instruments. Because farmers do not generally have direct access to these instruments, intermediaries must be developed. Larger private traders and banks are in the best position to become these intermediaries. Preconditions needed for accessing modern commodity marketing, price risk management, and financing instruments are: * Creating an appropriate legal, regulatory, and institutional framework. * Reducing government intervention that crowds out private sector involvement. * Providing training and raising awareness. * Improving creditworthiness and reducing performance risk. The use of commodity derivative instruments to hedge commodity price risk is not new among developing countries. The private sector in many Asian and Latin American countries, for example, have been using commodity futures and options for some time. More recently, commodity derivative instruments are being used increasingly in several African countries and many economies in transition. And several developing and transition economies have sought to establish commodity derivative exchanges. This paper - a product of the Commodity Policy and Analysis Unit, International Economics Department - is part of a larger effort in the department to investigate alternative price risk management and finance systems under market liberalization.

Many developing economies are heavily exposed to commodity markets, leaving them vulnerable to the vagaries of international commodity prices. This paper examines the use of commodity options-including plain vanilla, risk reversal, and barrier options-to hedge such risk. It then proposes the use of a new structured product-a sovereign Eurobond with an embedded option on a specific commodity price. By extracting commodity price risk out of the bond, such an instrument insulates the bond default risk from commodity price movements, allowing it to be marketed at a lower credit spread. The product is also designed to help developing countries establish a credit derivatives market, which would in turn enhance the marketability and liquidity of sovereign bonds.

Commodity-linked finance has expanded rapidly in the 1980s, but it has mainly been confined to entities in industrial countries. Creditworthiness questions, reinforced by debt overhang, handicap the developing countries in their access to this type of financing. To achieve better risk management in the commodity-dependent developing countries, the authors argue that commodity-linked financial measures have important advantages in the external financing of developing countries as compared to the traditional alternatives of foreign-currency-denominated, general obligation borrowing or direct foreign investment. The authors argue that commodity-linked financing allows developing countries that are overexposed to particular risks, relative to those in the world economy, to shift these risks to world capital markets on an ex ante basis. The study concludes by offering a number of strategic solutions involving the World Bank as an integral participant in both monitoring debt reduction and enacting a technical advice program to assist developing countries manage their financial risk.

This paper reviews the current state of affairs and thinking on external risk management for developing countries. It tries to identify the reasons behind the limited risk management by sovereigns. Perverse incentives arising from a too generous international safety net, limited access to international financial markets by developing countries arising from low creditworthiness, a limited supply of financial risk management tools suited to developing countries, and a poor supply of skills have inhibited risk management. Another constraint has been the limited attention given to the strategic objectives for risk management. Going forward, the paper identifies actions by international financial markets, countries and international financial institutions that can help improve risk management.