Medium Range Weather Prediction

Forecasting the weather for the long and medium range is a difficult and scientifically challenging problem. Since the first operational weather prediction by numerical methods was carried out (on the BESK computer in Stockholm, Sweden, 1954) . there has been an ever accelerating development in computer technology. Hand in hand has followed a tremendous increase in the complexity of the atmospheric models used for weather prediction. The ability of these models to predict future states of the atmosphere has also increased rapidly, both due to model development and due to more accurate and plentiful observations of the atmosphere to define the initial . state for model integrations. It may however be argued on theoretical grounds that even if we have an almost perfect model with almost perfect initial data, we will never be able to make an accurate weather prediction more than a few weeks ahead. This is due to the inherent instability of the atmosphere and work in this field was pioneered by E. Lorenz. It is generally referred to as atmospheric predict ability and in the opening chapter of this book Professor Lorenz gives us an overview of the problem of atmospheric predictability. The contributions to this book were originally presented at the 1981 ECMWF Seminar (ECMWF - European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts) which was held at ECMWF in Reading, England, in September 1981.

This book provides an overview of the early years of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, and reviews the work of the institute over the past 30 years, describing along the way the European approach to medium-range weather forecasting. Its combination of historical view and scientific insight is unique.

From the acclaimed author of Tubes, a lively and surprising tour through the global network that predicts our weather, the people behind it, and what it reveals about our climate and our planet The weather is the foundation of our daily lives. It’s a staple of small talk, the app on our smartphones, and often the first thing we check each morning. Yet, behind all these humble interactions is the largest and most elaborate piece of infrastructure human beings have ever constructed—a triumph of both science and global cooperation. But what is the weather machine, and who created it? In The Weather Machine, Andrew Blum takes readers on a fascinating journey through the people, places, and tools of forecasting, exploring how the weather went from something we simply observed to something we could actually predict. As he travels across the planet, he visits some of the oldest and most important weather stations and watches the newest satellites blast off. He explores the dogged efforts of forecasters to create a supercomputer model of the atmosphere, while trying to grasp the ongoing relevance of TV weather forecasters. In the increasingly unpredictable world of climate change, correctly understanding the weather is vital. Written with the sharp wit and infectious curiosity Andrew Blum is known for, The Weather Machine pulls back the curtain on a universal part of our everyday lives, illuminating our changing relationships with technology, the planet, and our global community.

Weather has always affected human life. Understanding how weather events form and predicting what kind of weather is coming can help enormously to manage weather-risk and will become even more important as we shift towards strongly weather-dependent energy sources. Some big steps forward in numerical weather prediction have been made in the past 40 years, thanks to advances in four key areas: the way we observe the Earth, the scientific understanding of the phenomena, advances in high-performance computing (that have allowed the use of increasingly complex models), and improved modelling techniques. Today we are capable of predicting extreme events such as hurricanes and extra-tropical windstorms very accurately up to 7 to 10 days ahead. We can predict the most likely path and intensity of storms before they hit a community, estimate the confidence level of the forecast, and can give very valuable indications of their probable impact. Larger-scale phenomena that affect entire countries, such as heat or cold waves, periods with extremely high or low temperatures lasting for days, can be forecast up to 2-to-3 weeks before the events occur. Phenomena that affect a big portion of the oceans or of a continent and that evolve slowly, such as the warming of the sea-surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean when an El Nino event occurs, can be predicted months ahead, and in some cases even longer. Weather Prediction: What Everyone Needs to Know® discusses some of the key topics linked to weather prediction and explains how we got here. It discusses questions that are often asked, such as: how are weather forecasts generated? How complex are the models used in numerical weather prediction, and how to solve them? Was this event predictable? Why was this forecast wrong? How did you manage to predict this hurricane path 10 days before the event? Will weather forecast continue to improve, or is there a predictability limit?

Uncertainties in Numerical Weather Prediction is a comprehensive work on the most current understandings of uncertainties and predictability in numerical simulations of the atmosphere. It provides general knowledge on all aspects of uncertainties in the weather prediction models in a single, easy to use reference. The book illustrates particular uncertainties in observations and data assimilation, as well as the errors associated with numerical integration methods. Stochastic methods in parameterization of subgrid processes are also assessed, as are uncertainties associated with surface-atmosphere exchange, orographic flows and processes in the atmospheric boundary layer. Through a better understanding of the uncertainties to watch for, readers will be able to produce more precise and accurate forecasts. This is an essential work for anyone who wants to improve the accuracy of weather and climate forecasting and interested parties developing tools to enhance the quality of such forecasts. Provides a comprehensive overview of the state of numerical weather prediction at spatial scales, from hundreds of meters, to thousands of kilometers Focuses on short-term 1-15 day atmospheric predictions, with some coverage appropriate for longer-term forecasts Includes references to climate prediction models to allow applications of these techniques for climate simulations

This book provides an overview of the early years of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, and reviews the work of the institute over the past 30 years, describing along the way the European approach to medium-range weather forecasting. Its combination of historical view and scientific insight is unique.