Modeling And Management Of Resources Under Uncertainty

This vol ume contains the proceedings of the second U. S. -Austral ia workshop on Renewable Resource Management held at the East-West Center, Honolulu, Hawaii, December 9-12, 1985. The workshop was jointly sponsored by the National Science Foundation (USA) and the Department of Science and Technology (Austral ia) under the U. S. -Austral ia Cooperative Science Program. The objective of the workshop was to focus on problems associated with the management of renewable resource systems. A particular emphasis was given to methods for handling uncertain elements whieh are present in any real system. Toward this end, the partiei pants were chosen so that the collective expertise included mathematical modeling, dynamical control/game theory, ecology, and practical management of real systems. Each participant was invited to give an informal presentation in his field of expertise as related to the overall theme. The formal papers (contained in this vo 1 ume) were written after the workshop so that the authors coul d util ize the workshop experience in relating their own work to others. To further encourage this exchange, each paper contained in this volume was reviewed by two other participants who then wrote formal comments. These comments (with author's reply in some cases) are attached to the end of each paper.

Groundwater is a vital resource of water, in some regions of the world the only source of fresh water. Its use for domestic use and agriculture dates back thousands of years. In recent decades the over-exploitation and unabated use of this resource has lead to severe environmental problems such as resource depletion, land subsidence and groundwater

Until fairly recently, populations were handled as homogenized averages, which made modeling feasible but which ignored the essential fact that in any population there is a great variety of individuals of different ages, sizes, and degrees of fitness. Recently, because of the increased availability of affordable computer power, approaches have been developed which are able to recognize individual differences. Individual-based models are of great use in the areas of aquatic ecology, terrestrial ecology, landscape or physiological ecology, terrestrial ecology, landscape or physiological ecology, and agriculture. This book discusses which biological problems individual-based models can solve, as well as the models' inherent limitations. It explores likely future directions of theoretical development in these models, as well as currently feasible management applications and the best mathematical approaches and computer languages to use. The book also details specific applications to theory and management.

Writing in honour of Sid Yakowitz, 50 internationally known scholars have collectively contributed 30 papers on modelling uncertainty to this volume. These include papers with a theoretical emphasis and others that focus on applications.

Uncertainty can take many forms, can be represented in many ways, and can have important implications in decision-making and policy development. This book provides a rigorous scientific framework for dealing with uncertainty in real-world situations, and provides a comprehensive study of concepts, measurements, and applications of uncertainty in ecological modeling and natural resource management. The focus of this book is on the kinds and implications of uncertainty in environmental modeling and management, with practical guidelines and examples for successful modeling and risk analysis in the face of uncertain conditions and incomplete information. Provided is a clear classification of uncertainty; methods for measuring, modeling, and communicating uncertainty; practical guidelines for capturing and representing expert knowledge and judgment; explanations of the role of uncertainty in decision-making; a guideline to avoiding logical fallacies when dealing with uncertainty; and several example cases of real-world ecological modeling and risk analysis to illustrate the concepts and approaches. Case topics provide examples of structured decision-making, statistical modeling, and related topics. A summary provides practical next steps that the reader can take in analyzing and interpreting uncertainty in real-world situations. Also provided is a glossary and a suite of references.

Proceedings volume contains carefully selected papers presented during the 17th IFIP Conference on System Modelling and Optimization. Optimization theory and practice, optimal control, system modelling, stochastic optimization, and technical and non-technical applications of the existing theory are among areas mostly addressed in the included papers. Main directions are treated in addition to several survey papers based on invited presentations of leading specialists in the respective fields. Publication provides state-of-the-art in the area of system theory and optimization and points out several new areas (e.g fuzzy set, neural nets), where classical optimization topics intersects with computer science methodology.

Flooding can have devastating impacts on people’s livelihood, economy and the environment. An important instrument in flood management is floodplain maps, which assist land planners and local authorities in identifying flood-prone areas, and provide useful information for rescue and relief agencies for their operations. Developing floodplain maps often involves flood inundation modeling. This typically requires precipitation and stream flow data, topographic information, building a hydraulic model and calibration of its parameters. Often however, floodplain maps are built on a single model outcome without an explicit consideration of all the sources of uncertainty in the modeling process. The research presented in this thesis addresses the uncertainty in flood inundation modeling, which may arise from input data and hydraulic modeling approach. The study area is the Sungai Johor basin in Johor, Malaysia, an agriculture-dominated area. The present study analyses the modelling uncertainties arising from estimations of design flow, terrain data sets, geometric description in hydraulic models and different modeling approaches, and develops recommendations for practitioners. Explicit account for uncertainties and studying their impact in flood inundation mapping allow for more informed and effective decision making.