Modeling Infectious Diseases In Humans And Animals

For epidemiologists, evolutionary biologists, and health-care professionals, real-time and predictive modeling of infectious disease is of growing importance. This book provides a timely and comprehensive introduction to the modeling of infectious diseases in humans and animals, focusing on recent developments as well as more traditional approaches. Matt Keeling and Pejman Rohani move from modeling with simple differential equations to more recent, complex models, where spatial structure, seasonal "forcing," or stochasticity influence the dynamics, and where computer simulation needs to be used to generate theory. In each of the eight chapters, they deal with a specific modeling approach or set of techniques designed to capture a particular biological factor. They illustrate the methodology used with examples from recent research literature on human and infectious disease modeling, showing how such techniques can be used in practice. Diseases considered include BSE, foot-and-mouth, HIV, measles, rubella, smallpox, and West Nile virus, among others. Particular attention is given throughout the book to the development of practical models, useful both as predictive tools and as a means to understand fundamental epidemiological processes. To emphasize this approach, the last chapter is dedicated to modeling and understanding the control of diseases through vaccination, quarantine, or culling. Comprehensive, practical introduction to infectious disease modeling Builds from simple to complex predictive models Models and methodology fully supported by examples drawn from research literature Practical models aid students' understanding of fundamental epidemiological processes For many of the models presented, the authors provide accompanying programs written in Java, C, Fortran, and MATLAB In-depth treatment of role of modeling in understanding disease control

This book deals with infectious diseases -- viral, bacterial, protozoan and helminth -- in terms of the dynamics of their interaction with host populations. The book combines mathematical models with extensive use of epidemiological and other data. This analytic framework is highly useful for the evaluation of public health strategies aimed at controlling or eradicating particular infections. Such a framework is increasingly important in light of the widespread concern for primary health care programs aimed at such diseases as measles, malaria, river blindness, sleeping sickness, and schistosomiasis, and the advent of AIDS/HIV and other emerging viruses. Throughout the book, the mathematics is used as a tool for thinking clearly about fundamental and applied problems having to do with infectious diseases. The book is divided into two parts, one dealing with microparasites (viruses, bacteria and protozoans) and the other with macroparasites (helminths and parasitic arthropods). Each part begins with simple models, developed in a biologically intuitive way, and then goes on to develop more complicated and realistic models as tools for public health planning. The book synthesizes previous work in this rapidly growing field (much of which is scattered between the ecological and the medical literature) with a good deal of new material.

Humans have lived in close proximity to other animals for thousands of years. Recent scientific studies have even shown that the presence of animals has a positive effect on our physical and mental health. People with pets typically have lower blood pressure, show fewer symptoms of depression, and tend to get more exercise. But there is a darker side to the relationship between animals and humans. Animals are carriers of harmful infectious agents and the source of a myriad of human diseases. In recent years, the emergence of high-profile illnesses such as AIDS, SARS, West Nile virus, and bird flu has drawn much public attention, but as E. Fuller Torrey and Robert H. Yolken reveal, the transfer of deadly microbes from animals to humans is neither a new nor an easily avoided problem. Beginning with the domestication of farm animals nearly 10,000 years ago, Beasts of the Earth traces the ways that human-animal contact has evolved over time. Today, shared living quarters, overlapping ecosystems, and experimental surgical practices where organs or tissues are transplanted from non-humans into humans continue to open new avenues for the transmission of infectious agents. Other changes in human behavior like increased air travel, automated food processing, and threats of bioterrorism are increasing the contagion factor by transporting microbes further distances and to larger populations in virtually no time at all. While the authors urge that a better understanding of past diseases may help us lessen the severity of some illnesses, they also warn that, given our increasingly crowded planet, it is not a question of if but when and how often animal-transmitted diseases will pose serious challenges to human health in the future.

Bayesian analyses have made important inroads in modern clinical research due, in part, to the incorporation of the traditional tools of noninformative priors as well as the modern innovations of adaptive randomization and predictive power. Presenting an introductory perspective to modern Bayesian procedures, Elementary Bayesian Biostatistics explo

Globalization of the food supply has created conditions favorable for the emergence, reemergence, and spread of food-borne pathogens-compounding the challenge of anticipating, detecting, and effectively responding to food-borne threats to health. In the United States, food-borne agents affect 1 out of 6 individuals and cause approximately 48 million illnesses, 128,000 hospitalizations, and 3,000 deaths each year. This figure likely represents just the tip of the iceberg, because it fails to account for the broad array of food-borne illnesses or for their wide-ranging repercussions for consumers, government, and the food industry-both domestically and internationally. A One Health approach to food safety may hold the promise of harnessing and integrating the expertise and resources from across the spectrum of multiple health domains including the human and veterinary medical and plant pathology communities with those of the wildlife and aquatic health and ecology communities. The IOM's Forum on Microbial Threats hosted a public workshop on December 13 and 14, 2011 that examined issues critical to the protection of the nation's food supply. The workshop explored existing knowledge and unanswered questions on the nature and extent of food-borne threats to health. Participants discussed the globalization of the U.S. food supply and the burden of illness associated with foodborne threats to health; considered the spectrum of food-borne threats as well as illustrative case studies; reviewed existing research, policies, and practices to prevent and mitigate foodborne threats; and, identified opportunities to reduce future threats to the nation's food supply through the use of a "One Health" approach to food safety. Improving Food Safety Through a One Health Approach: Workshop Summary covers the events of the workshop and explains the recommendations for future related workshops.

This book features recent research in mathematical modeling of indirectly and directly transmitted infectious diseases in humans, animals, and plants. It compiles nine not previously published studies that illustrate the dynamic spread of infectious diseases, offering a broad range of models to enrich understanding. It demonstrates the capability of mathematical modeling to capture disease spread and interaction dynamics as well as the complicating factors of various evolutionary processes. In addition, it presents applications to real-world disease control by commenting on key parameters and dominant pathways related to transmission. While aimed at early-graduate level students, the book can also provide insights to established researchers in that it presents a survey of current topics and methodologies in a constantly evolving field.

For many years, experiments using chimpanzees have been instrumental in advancing scientific knowledge and have led to new medicines to prevent life-threatening and debilitating diseases. However, recent advances in alternate research tools have rendered chimpanzees largely unnecessary as research subjects. The Institute of Medicine, in collaboration with the National Research Council, conducted an in-depth analysis of the scientific necessity for chimpanzees in NIH-funded biomedical and behavioral research. The committee concludes that while the chimpanzee has been a valuable animal model in the past, most current biomedical research use of chimpanzees is not necessary, though noted that it is impossible to predict whether research on emerging or new diseases may necessitate chimpanzees in the future.

Hardly a day goes by without news headlines concerning infectious disease threats. Currently the spectre of a pandemic of influenza A|H1N1 is raising its head, and heated debates are taking place about the pro’s and con’s of vaccinating young girls against human papilloma virus. For an evidence-based and responsible communication of infectious disease topics to avoid misunderstandings and overreaction of the public, we need solid scientific knowledge and an understanding of all aspects of infectious diseases and their control. The aim of our book is to present the reader with the general picture and the main ideas of the subject. The book introduces the reader to methodological aspects of epidemiology that are specific for infectious diseases and provides insight into the epidemiology of some classes of infectious diseases characterized by their main modes of transmission. This choice of topics bridges the gap between scientific research on the clinical, biological, mathematical, social and economic aspects of infectious diseases and their applications in public health. The book will help the reader to understand the impact of infectious diseases on modern society and the instruments that policy makers have at their disposal to deal with these challenges. It is written for students of the health sciences, both of curative medicine and public health, and for experts that are active in these and related domains, and it may be of interest for the educated layman since the technical level is kept relatively low.