Modeling Remaining Useful Life Dynamics In Reliability Engineering

This book applies traditional reliability engineering methods to prognostics and health management (PHM), looking at remaining useful life (RUL) and its dynamics, to enable engineers to effectively and accurately predict machinery and systems useful lifespan. One of the key tools used in defining and implementing predictive maintenance policies is the RUL indicator. However, it is essential to account for the uncertainty inherent to the RUL, as otherwise predictive maintenance strategies can be incorrect. This can cause high costs or, alternatively, inappropriate decisions. Methods used to estimate RUL are numerous and diverse and, broadly speaking, fall into three categories: model-based, data-driven, or hybrid, which uses both. The author starts by building on established theory and looks at traditional reliability engineering methods through their relation to PHM requirements and presents the concept of RUL loss rate. Following on from this, the author presents an innovative general method for defining a nonlinear transformation enabling the mean residual life to become a linear function of time. He applies this method to frequently encountered time-to-failure distributions, such as Weibull and gamma, and degradation processes. Latest research results, including the author’s (some of which were previously unpublished), are drawn upon and combined with very classical work. Statistical estimation techniques are then presented to estimate RUL from field data, and risk-based methods for maintenance optimization are described, including the use of RUL dynamics for predictive maintenance. The book ends with suggestions for future research, including links with machine learning and deep learning. The theory is illustrated by industrial examples. Each chapter is followed by a series of exercises. FEATURES Provides both practical and theoretical background of RUL Describes how the uncertainty of RUL can be related to RUL loss rate Provides new insights into time-to-failure distributions Offers tools for predictive maintenance This book will be of interest to engineers, researchers and students in reliability engineering, prognostics and health management, and maintenance management.

This book applies traditional reliability engineering methods to prognostics and health management (PHM), looking at remaining useful life (RUL) and its dynamics, to enable engineers to effectively and accurately predict machinery and systems useful lifespan. One of the key tools used in defining and implementing predictive maintenance policies is the RUL indicator. However, it is essential to account for the uncertainty inherent to the RUL, as otherwise predictive maintenance strategies can be incorrect. This can cause high costs or, alternatively, inappropriate decisions. Methods used to estimate RUL are numerous and diverse and, broadly speaking, fall into three categories: model-based, data-driven, or hybrid, which uses both. The author starts by building on established theory and looks at traditional reliability engineering methods through their relation to PHM requirements and presents the concept of RUL loss rate. Following on from this, the author presents an innovative general method for defining a nonlinear transformation enabling the mean residual life to become a linear function of time. He applies this method to frequently encountered time-to-failure distributions, such as Weibull and gamma, and degradation processes. Latest research results, including the author’s (some of which were previously unpublished), are drawn upon and combined with very classical work. Statistical estimation techniques are then presented to estimate RUL from field data, and risk-based methods for maintenance optimization are described, including the use of RUL dynamics for predictive maintenance. The book ends with suggestions for future research, including links with machine learning and deep learning. The theory is illustrated by industrial examples. Each chapter is followed by a series of exercises. FEATURES Provides both practical and theoretical background of RUL Describes how the uncertainty of RUL can be related to RUL loss rate Provides new insights into time-to-failure distributions Offers tools for predictive maintenance This book will be of interest to engineers, researchers and students in reliability engineering, prognostics and health management, and maintenance management.

This book presents the latest research in the areas of development and application of risk-informed and risk-based technologies. The book discusses how advances in computational technologies, availability of accumulated experience and data on design, operations, maintenance and regulations, new insights in human factor modelling and development of new technologies, such as physics-of-failure modelling, prognostics and health management, have paved the way for implementation of risk and reliability tools and methods. The book will be useful for researchers, academicians, and engineers, particularly the field engineers, designers and regulators working on complex engineering systems.

Maintenance combines various methods, tools, and techniques in a bid to reduce maintenance costs while increasing the reliability, availability, and security of equipment. Condition-based maintenance (CBM) is one such method, and prognostics forms a key element of a CBM program based on mathematical models for predicting remaining useful life (RUL). Prognostics and Remaining Useful Life (RUL) Estimation: Predicting with Confidence compares the techniques and models used to estimate the RUL of different assets, including a review of the relevant literature on prognostic techniques and their use in the industrial field. This book describes different approaches and prognosis methods for different assets backed up by appropriate case studies. FEATURES Presents a compendium of RUL estimation methods and technologies used in predictive maintenance Describes different approaches and prognosis methods for different assets Includes a comprehensive compilation of methods from model-based and data-driven to hybrid Discusses the benchmarking of RUL estimation methods according to accuracy and uncertainty, depending on the target application, the type of asset, and the forecast performance expected Contains a toolset of methods and a way of deployment aimed at a versatile audience This book is aimed at professionals, senior undergraduates, and graduate students in all interdisciplinary engineering streams that focus on prognosis and maintenance.

As the Lead Reliability Engineer for Ford Motor Company, Guangbin Yang is involved with all aspects of the design and production of complex automotive systems. Focusing on real-world problems and solutions, Life Cycle Reliability Engineering covers the gamut of the techniques used for reliability assurance throughout a product's life cycle. Yang pulls real-world examples from his work and other industries to explain the methods of robust design (designing reliability into a product or system ahead of time), statistical and real product testing, software testing, and ultimately verification and warranting of the final product's reliability

Reliability and safety are core issues that must be addressed throughout the life cycle of engineering systems. Reliability and Safety Engineering presents an overview of the basic concepts, together with simple and practical illustrations. The authors present reliability terminology in various engineering fields, viz., • electronics engineering, • software engineering, • mechanical engineering, • structural engineering, and • power systems engineering. They describe the latest applications in the area of probabilistic safety assessment, such as technical specification optimization, risk monitoring and risk informed in-service inspection. Reliability and safety studies must, inevitably, deal with uncertainty, so the book includes uncertainty propagation methods: Monte Carlo simulation, fuzzy arithmetic, Dempster-Shafer theory and probability bounds. Reliability and Safety Engineering also highlights advances in system reliability and safety assessment including dynamic system modeling and uncertainty management. Case studies from typical nuclear power plants, as well as from structural, software, and electronic systems are also discussed. Reliability and Safety Engineering combines discussions of the existing literature on basic concepts and applications with state-of-the-art methods used in reliability and risk assessment of engineering systems. It is designed to assist practicing engineers, students and researchers in the areas of reliability engineering and risk analysis.

All engineers could bene?t from at least one course in reliability physics and engineering. It is very likely that, starting with your very ?rst engineering po- tion, you will be asked — how long is your newly developed device expected to last? This text was designed to help you to answer this fundamentally important question. All materials and devices are expected to degrade with time, so it is very natural to ask — how long will the product last? The evidence for material/device degradation is apparently everywhere in nature. A fresh coating of paint on a house will eventually crack and peel. Doors in a new home can become stuck due to the shifting of the foundation. The new ?nish on an automobile will oxidize with time. The tight tolerances associated with ?nely meshed gears will deteriorate with time. Critical parameters associated with hi- precision semiconductor devices (threshold voltages, drive currents, interconnect resistances, capacitor leakages, etc.) will degrade with time. In order to und- stand the lifetime of the material/device, it is important to understand the reliability physics (kinetics) for each of the potential failure mechanisms and then be able to develop the required reliability engineering methods that can be used to prevent, or at least minimize the occurrence of, device failure.

Without proper reliability and maintenance planning, even the most efficient and seemingly cost-effective designs can incur enormous expenses due to repeated or catastrophic failure and subsequent search for the cause. Today’s engineering students face increasing pressure from employers, customers, and regulators to produce cost-efficient designs that are less prone to failure and that are safe and easy to use. The second edition of Reliability Engineering aims to provide an understanding of reliability principles and maintenance planning to help accomplish these goals. This edition expands the treatment of several topics while maintaining an integrated introductory resource for the study of reliability evaluation and maintenance planning. The focus across all of the topics treated is the use of analytical methods to support the design of dependable and efficient equipment and the planning for the servicing of that equipment. The argument is made that probability models provide an effective vehicle for portraying and evaluating the variability that is inherent in the performance and longevity of equipment. With a blend of mathematical rigor and readability, this book is the ideal introductory textbook for graduate students and a useful resource for practising engineers.