Modeling Remaining Useful Life Dynamics In Reliability Engineering

This book applies traditional reliability engineering methods to prognostics and health management (PHM), looking at remaining useful life (RUL) and its dynamics, to enable engineers to effectively and accurately predict machinery and systems useful lifespan. One of the key tools used in defining and implementing predictive maintenance policies is the RUL indicator. However, it is essential to account for the uncertainty inherent to the RUL, as otherwise predictive maintenance strategies can be incorrect. This can cause high costs or, alternatively, inappropriate decisions. Methods used to estimate RUL are numerous and diverse and, broadly speaking, fall into three categories: model-based, data-driven, or hybrid, which uses both. The author starts by building on established theory and looks at traditional reliability engineering methods through their relation to PHM requirements and presents the concept of RUL loss rate. Following on from this, the author presents an innovative general method for defining a nonlinear transformation enabling the mean residual life to become a linear function of time. He applies this method to frequently encountered time-to-failure distributions, such as Weibull and gamma, and degradation processes. Latest research results, including the author’s (some of which were previously unpublished), are drawn upon and combined with very classical work. Statistical estimation techniques are then presented to estimate RUL from field data, and risk-based methods for maintenance optimization are described, including the use of RUL dynamics for predictive maintenance. The book ends with suggestions for future research, including links with machine learning and deep learning. The theory is illustrated by industrial examples. Each chapter is followed by a series of exercises. FEATURES Provides both practical and theoretical background of RUL Describes how the uncertainty of RUL can be related to RUL loss rate Provides new insights into time-to-failure distributions Offers tools for predictive maintenance This book will be of interest to engineers, researchers and students in reliability engineering, prognostics and health management, and maintenance management.

This book applies traditional reliability engineering methods to prognostics and health management (PHM), looking at remaining useful life (RUL) and its dynamics, to enable engineers to effectively and accurately predict machinery and systems useful lifespan. One of the key tools used in defining and implementing predictive maintenance policies is the RUL indicator. However, it is essential to account for the uncertainty inherent to the RUL, as otherwise predictive maintenance strategies can be incorrect. This can cause high costs or, alternatively, inappropriate decisions. Methods used to estimate RUL are numerous and diverse and, broadly speaking, fall into three categories: model-based, data-driven, or hybrid, which uses both. The author starts by building on established theory and looks at traditional reliability engineering methods through their relation to PHM requirements and presents the concept of RUL loss rate. Following on from this, the author presents an innovative general method for defining a nonlinear transformation enabling the mean residual life to become a linear function of time. He applies this method to frequently encountered time-to-failure distributions, such as Weibull and gamma, and degradation processes. Latest research results, including the author’s (some of which were previously unpublished), are drawn upon and combined with very classical work. Statistical estimation techniques are then presented to estimate RUL from field data, and risk-based methods for maintenance optimization are described, including the use of RUL dynamics for predictive maintenance. The book ends with suggestions for future research, including links with machine learning and deep learning. The theory is illustrated by industrial examples. Each chapter is followed by a series of exercises. FEATURES Provides both practical and theoretical background of RUL Describes how the uncertainty of RUL can be related to RUL loss rate Provides new insights into time-to-failure distributions Offers tools for predictive maintenance This book will be of interest to engineers, researchers and students in reliability engineering, prognostics and health management, and maintenance management.

This book presents the latest research in the areas of development and application of risk-informed and risk-based technologies. The book discusses how advances in computational technologies, availability of accumulated experience and data on design, operations, maintenance and regulations, new insights in human factor modelling and development of new technologies, such as physics-of-failure modelling, prognostics and health management, have paved the way for implementation of risk and reliability tools and methods. The book will be useful for researchers, academicians, and engineers, particularly the field engineers, designers and regulators working on complex engineering systems.

Maintenance combines various methods, tools, and techniques in a bid to reduce maintenance costs while increasing the reliability, availability, and security of equipment. Condition-based maintenance (CBM) is one such method, and prognostics forms a key element of a CBM program based on mathematical models for predicting remaining useful life (RUL). Prognostics and Remaining Useful Life (RUL) Estimation: Predicting with Confidence compares the techniques and models used to estimate the RUL of different assets, including a review of the relevant literature on prognostic techniques and their use in the industrial field. This book describes different approaches and prognosis methods for different assets backed up by appropriate case studies. FEATURES Presents a compendium of RUL estimation methods and technologies used in predictive maintenance Describes different approaches and prognosis methods for different assets Includes a comprehensive compilation of methods from model-based and data-driven to hybrid Discusses the benchmarking of RUL estimation methods according to accuracy and uncertainty, depending on the target application, the type of asset, and the forecast performance expected Contains a toolset of methods and a way of deployment aimed at a versatile audience This book is aimed at professionals, senior undergraduates, and graduate students in all interdisciplinary engineering streams that focus on prognosis and maintenance.

As the Lead Reliability Engineer for Ford Motor Company, Guangbin Yang is involved with all aspects of the design and production of complex automotive systems. Focusing on real-world problems and solutions, Life Cycle Reliability Engineering covers the gamut of the techniques used for reliability assurance throughout a product's life cycle. Yang pulls real-world examples from his work and other industries to explain the methods of robust design (designing reliability into a product or system ahead of time), statistical and real product testing, software testing, and ultimately verification and warranting of the final product's reliability

All engineers could bene?t from at least one course in reliability physics and engineering. It is very likely that, starting with your very ?rst engineering po- tion, you will be asked — how long is your newly developed device expected to last? This text was designed to help you to answer this fundamentally important question. All materials and devices are expected to degrade with time, so it is very natural to ask — how long will the product last? The evidence for material/device degradation is apparently everywhere in nature. A fresh coating of paint on a house will eventually crack and peel. Doors in a new home can become stuck due to the shifting of the foundation. The new ?nish on an automobile will oxidize with time. The tight tolerances associated with ?nely meshed gears will deteriorate with time. Critical parameters associated with hi- precision semiconductor devices (threshold voltages, drive currents, interconnect resistances, capacitor leakages, etc.) will degrade with time. In order to und- stand the lifetime of the material/device, it is important to understand the reliability physics (kinetics) for each of the potential failure mechanisms and then be able to develop the required reliability engineering methods that can be used to prevent, or at least minimize the occurrence of, device failure.

Maintenance combines various methods, tools, and techniques in a bid to reduce maintenance costs while increasing the reliability, availability, and security of equipment. Condition-based maintenance (CBM) is one such method, and prognostics forms a key element of a CBM program based on mathematical models for predicting remaining useful life (RUL). Prognostics and Remaining Useful Life (RUL) Estimation: Predicting with Confidence compares the techniques and models used to estimate the RUL of different assets, including a review of the relevant literature on prognostic techniques and their use in the industrial field. This book describes different approaches and prognosis methods for different assets backed up by appropriate case studies. FEATURES Presents a compendium of RUL estimation methods and technologies used in predictive maintenance Describes different approaches and prognosis methods for different assets Includes a comprehensive compilation of methods from model-based and data-driven to hybrid Discusses the benchmarking of RUL estimation methods according to accuracy and uncertainty, depending on the target application, the type of asset, and the forecast performance expected Contains a toolset of methods and a way of deployment aimed at a versatile audience This book is aimed at professionals, senior undergraduates, and graduate students in all interdisciplinary engineering streams that focus on prognosis and maintenance.

Addresses the methodology and theoretical foundation of battery manufacturing, service and management systems (BM2S2), and discusses the issues and challenges in these areas This book brings together experts in the field to highlight the cutting edge research advances in BM2S2 and to promote an innovative integrated research framework responding to the challenges. There are three major parts included in this book: manufacturing, service, and management. The first part focuses on battery manufacturing systems, including modeling, analysis, design and control, as well as economic and risk analyses. The second part focuses on information technology’s impact on service systems, such as data-driven reliability modeling, failure prognosis, and service decision making methodologies for battery services. The third part addresses battery management systems (BMS) for control and optimization of battery cells, operations, and hybrid storage systems to ensure overall performance and safety, as well as EV management. The contributors consist of experts from universities, industry research centers, and government agency. In addition, this book: Provides comprehensive overviews of lithium-ion battery and battery electrical vehicle manufacturing, as well as economic returns and government support Introduces integrated models for quality propagation and productivity improvement, as well as indicators for bottleneck identification and mitigation in battery manufacturing Covers models and diagnosis algorithms for battery SOC and SOH estimation, data-driven prognosis algorithms for predicting the remaining useful life (RUL) of battery SOC and SOH Presents mathematical models and novel structure of battery equalizers in battery management systems (BMS) Reviews the state of the art of battery, supercapacitor, and battery-supercapacitor hybrid energy storage systems (HESSs) for advanced electric vehicle applications Advances in Battery Manufacturing, Services, and Management Systems is written for researchers and engineers working on battery manufacturing, service, operations, logistics, and management. It can also serve as a reference for senior undergraduate and graduate students interested in BM2S2.