Modeling The Economic Effect Of Changes In Tax Policy

This book reports the authors' research on one of the most sophisticated general equilibrium models designed for tax policy analysis. Significantly disaggregated and incorporating the complete array of federal, state, and local taxes, the model represents the U.S. economy and tax system in a large computer package. The authors consider modifications of the tax system, including those being raised in current policy debates, such as consumption-based taxes and integration of the corporate and personal income tax systems. A counterfactual economy associated with each of these alternatives is generated, and the possible outcomes are compared.

The Economic Impacts of Tax—Transfer Policy: Regional and Distributional Effects deals with evaluating proposed income-transfer policies through tax modeling. The book analyzes the direct and indirect effects of two variants of a negative income tax plan. These are the standard negative income tax and the Family Assistance Plan. By studying the indirect effects of income-maintenance programs on industries, occupations, and different regions, the authors point to understanding the effectiveness of alternative income-maintenance programs. Proposed changes in national taxes and transfer policies aim to achieve income redistribution. In their studies and models, the authors noted that the full impact of these tax policies throughout the income spectra covering different income classes, industries, occupations, and regions is different from that gathered from observations involving the direct effects of these schemes. The authors cite some policy implications resulting from their study, such as the redistributional impacts of direct tax-transfer scheme are not as efficient as expected and that increasing the demand for low-skilled workers and improving their job qualities is one way of improving income distribution. The text is valuable for economists and government policymakers in the finance and labor sectors, as well as for sociologists and political economists.

These thirteen papers and accompanying commentaries are the first fruits of an ongoing research project that has concentrated on developing simulation models that incorporate the behavioral responses of individuals and businesses to alternative tax rules and rates and on expanding computational general equilibrium models that analyze the long-run effects of changes on the economy as a whole. The principal focus of the project has been on the microsimulation of individual behavior. Thus, this volume includes studies of individual responses to an over reduction in tax rates and to changes in the highest tax rates; a study of alternative tax treatments of the family; and studies of such specific aspects of household behavior as tax treatment of home ownership, charitable contributions, and individual saving behavior. Microsimulation techniques are also used to estimate the effects of alternative policies on the long-run financial status of the social security program and to examine the effects of alternative tax rules on corporate investment and of foreign-source income on overseas investment. The papers devoted to the development of general equilibrium simulation models to include an examination of the implications of international trade and capital flows, a study of the effects of capital taxation that uses a closed economy equilibrium model, and an examination of the effect of switching to an inflation-indexed tax system. In the volume's final paper, a life-cycle model in which individuals maximize lifetime utility subject to a lifetime budget constraint is used to simulate the effects of tax rules on personal savings.

The Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model (GIMF) is a multi-region, forward-looking, DSGE model developed at the International Monetary Fund for policy analysis and international economic research. This paper documents the incorporation of corporate income, cash-flow and destination based cash-flow taxes into the model. The analysis presented considers the transmission mechanism of these taxes and details how financial frictions interact with each of the taxes.

"Debates about the optimal structure for tax policies and tax rates hardly cease among public, policy, or academic audiences. These have only grown more heated in the United States as the gap between incomes of the wealthiest 1 percent and the rest of the population continue to diverge. Tax research perhaps has not fully kept pace with the relentless demand of various interests to adjust tax policy. Nonetheless, specialists in the economics of tax policy in recent years have profited from advances in economic theory, econometric measurements, and data quality and access that are beginning to allow a greater consensus on what are the real effects of tax policy and how government levies affect individuals and businesses. The volume edited by Professors Auerbach and Smetters represents an attempt to reduce the lag between the conduct of research on tax issues and its transmission to a broader public. The contributions would explore highly topical issues such as the effects of income tax changes on economic growth, the potential effects of capping certain tax expenditures, the economics of adjusted business tax policy, and environmental tax options. Other essays would investigate perennially important themes such as the conduct of tax administration, the growing role of the tax system on education policy, tax policy toward low-income families, capital gains and estate taxation, and tax policy for retirement savings. A final paper would examine three different options for fundamental tax reform"--

Alberto Heimler and Daniele Meulders In the last decade the modelling of the interrelationship between public finance and the rest of the economy has seen substantial advances, reflected in many of the papers delivered to the Applied Econometrics Association Conference held at Confindustria, Rome, on 30 November and 1 December 1989. In particular, the development of the literature on applied general-equilibrium modelling has found most of its applications in the field of taxation, enlarging and completing the estimation of the welfare loss due to distortionary taxes. In this context an important extension has been the introduction of overlapping-generation models. Furthermore, it has become clear that most individual decisions, especially the decision whether or not to work, are dependent upon the tax system, in the sense that the higher the marginal income tax the larger the wedge between labour cost and take-home pay, the last one being the decision variable in the demand for leisure. Finally, in the European context, the completion of the internal market has brought about the necessity to harmonize fiscal systems in the EEC member countries. A number of papers study, therefore, the effects of fiscal reform on efficiency, welfare and growth.

A presentation of the cost-of-capital approach for analyzing the economic impact of tax policy. This book presents a comprehensive treatment of the cost-of-capital approach for analyzing the economic impact of tax policy. This approach has provided an intellectual impetus for reforms of capital income taxation in the United States and around the world. The cost of capital and the marginal effective tax rate are combined with estimates of substitution possibilities by businesses and households in analyzing tax and spending programs. This makes it possible to evaluate tax reforms and changes in government spending. Studies of the economic impact of tax policies have taken two forms. First, the cost of capital has been incorporated into investment functions in macroeconomic models, which are used to model the short-run responses to tax policy changes. Second, the cost-of-capital approach has been integrated into applied general-equilibrium models used in evaluating the long-run economic effects of tax reforms. The cost-of-capital approach suggests two avenues for tax reform. One would retain the income tax base of the existing U.S. tax system, but would equalize tax burdens on all forms of assets as well as average and marginal tax rates on labor income. The other would substitute consumption for income as a tax base, while equating average and marginal tax rates on labor income.