Modeling The Economics Of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation

Models are fundamental for estimating the possible costs and effectiveness of different policies for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. There is a wide array of models to perform such analysis, differing in the level of technological detail, treatment of technological progress, spatial and sector details, and representation of the interaction of the energy sector to the overall economy and environment. These differences impact model results, including cost estimates. More fundamentally, these models differ as to how they represent fundamental processes that have a large impact on policy analysis-such as how different models represent technological learning and cost reductions that come through increasing production volumes, or how different models represent baseline conditions. Reliable estimates of the costs and potential impacts on the United States economy of various emissions reduction and other mitigation strategies are critical to the development of the federal climate change research and development portfolio. At the request of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), the National Academies organized a workshop, summarized in this volume, to consider some of these types of modeling issues.

Many economic models exist to estimate the cost and effectiveness of different policies for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Some approaches incorporate rich technological detail, others emphasize the aggregate behavior of the economy and energy system, and some focus on impacts for specific sectors. Understandably, different approaches may be better positioned to provide particular types of information and may yield differing results, at times rendering decisions on future climate change emissions and research and development (R&D) policy difficult. Reliable estimates of the costs and benefits to the U.S. economy for various emissions reduction and adaptation strategies are critical to federal climate change R&D portfolio planning and investment decisions. At the request of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), the National Academies organized a workshop to consider these issues. The workshop, summarized in this volume, comprised three dimensions: policy, analysis, and economics. Discussions along these dimensions were meant to lead to constructive identification of gaps and opportunities. The workshop focused on (1) policymakers' informational needs; (2) models and other analytic approaches to meet these needs; (3) important economic considerations, including equity and discounting; and (4) opportunities to enhance analytical capabilities and better inform policy.

A fresh approach to the economics of climate change that bridges integrated assessment modeling and game theoretic modeling.Strategic Bargaining and Cooperation in Greenhouse Gas Mitigations: An Integrated Assessment Modeling Approach

Reviews how economic models address a set of critical assumptions & their effects on greenhouse gas mitigation costs. Identifies 5 determinants that together explain the majority of differences in modeling cost estimates, & which can help policy-makers understand the projected costs of climate change (CC) policy: What level of greenhouse gas emissions are projected under current policies? What climate policies are assumed to be put in place to achieve emissions reductions? What assumptions are made about how advances in tech. might affect these emissions? And to what extent are environmental impacts of CC included?

Crop, livestock, and forestry productions systems are important sources and sinks of greenhouses gases, but estimates of the magnitude of gas fluxes are more uncertain than those for other economic sectors such as transportation and electricity generation. Recent improvements in process-level un-derstanding, modeling software, and observational data used for model testing have increased the accuracy of model predictions, but substantial uncertainty remains, particularly regarding the potential for different management practices to mitigate emissions. The chapters in this volume demonstrate that both simple methods and complex models have strengths and limitations depending on stake-holder interest, scale of application, and other factors. Future improvement can be facilitated by or-ganizing model input and testing data into web-accessible databases and by making model algorithms more available and transparent.

We propose a macroeconomic model to assess optimal public policy decisions in the the face of competing funding demands for climate change action versus traditional welfare-enhancing capital investment. How to properly delineate the costs and benefits of traditional versus adaption-focused development remains an open question. The paper places particular emphasis on the changing level of risk and vulnerabilities faced by developing countries as they allocate investment toward growth strategies, adapting to climate change and emissions mitigation.

This study conducted an economic analysis of future US forest mitigation potential using a detailed economic model of the global forestry sector. The scenario design included a wide range of possible future carbon price incentives and climate policy structures (unilateral and global mitigation). Results across all scenarios show US forest sector mitigation potential ranging from 54 to 292 MtCO2e between 2015 and 2030 (5 to 47 percent of the additional mitigation needed to achieve the 26 to 28 percent emissions reduction target). The results from this study suggest that the US forest sector can play an important role in global greenhouse gas mitigation efforts, including efforts to meet any potential future US mitigation targets.