Modeling The Renewable Energy Transition In Canada

The work demonstrates a techno-economic model of power generation for the cost-effective integration of renewable energy sources, with the goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions in Canada. The methodological approach outlined by the author is based on periodic simulation of price variations. The result demonstrates that a 10% transition to renewable energy generation is possible, practical and affordable when supported by an effective policy framework that does not need to introduce a feed-in tariff or loan-based financial mode.

Canadian energy systems need to evolve. Beyond providing essential energy services, they must respond to climate change, enhance social justice, and remain sensitive to local cultures and traditions. Can they do this and still make financial sense? Sustainable Energy Transitions in Canada gathers experts from across the country to share perspectives on leading theories and practices. Contributors first deal with the conceptual aspects of energy transitions, investigating such topics as energy justice and poverty, the decolonization of energy, community energy planning, the role of energy systems modelling, and links between energy and climate change policy. Building on this foundation, they offer case studies that cover the North, the Atlantic region, Quebec, Ontario, Alberta and British Columbia, along with crucial but difficult to decarbonize sectors like transportation and space heating. Running throughout this comprehensive discussion is a common thread: the importance of paying attention to wider sustainability goals and distributional justice in the process of decarbonizing the Canadian economy.

Canada is a well-endowed country that serves as an ideal model to lead the reader through the development of energy, resources, and society historically and into a post-carbon future. The book provides an historical perspective and describes the physical resource limitations, energy budgets, and climate realities that will determine the potential for any transition to renewable energy. Political and social realities, including jurisdiction and energy equality issues, are addressed. However, we cannot simply mandate or legislate policies according to social and political aspirations. Policies must comply with the realities of physical laws, such as the energy return on investment (EROI) for fossil-fuel based and renewable energy systems. EROI is discussed in both historical terms and in reference to the greater efficiencies inherent in a distributed generation, mainly electric, post-carbon society. Meyer explores the often misleading concepts and terms that have become embedded in society and tend to dictate our policy making, as well as the language, social and personal goals, and metrics that need to change before the physical transition can begin at the required scale. This book also reviews what nations have been doing thus far in terms of renewables, including the successes and failures in Canada and across the globe. Ontario’s green energy fiasco, and a comparison of the different circumstances of Norway and Alberta, for example, are covered as part of the author’s comparison of a wide range of countries. What are the achievements, plans, and problems that determine how well different countries are positioned to make “the transition”? The transition path is complex, and the tools we need to develop and the physical infrastructure investments we need to make, are daunting. At some point in time, Canada and Canadians, like all nations, will be living on 100% renewable energy. Whether the social and technological level that endures sees us travelling to the stars, or subsisting at a standard of living more similar to the pre-fossil fuel era, is far from certain.

The roles and applications of various modeling approaches, aimed at improving the usefulness of energy policy models in public decision making, are covered by this book. The development, validation, and applications of system dynamics and agent-based models in service of energy policy design and assessment in the 21st century is a key focus. A number of modeling approaches and models for energy policy, with a particular focus on low-carbon economic development of regions and states are covered. Chapters on system dynamics methodology, model-based theory, fuzzy system dynamics frame-work, and optimization modeling approach are presented, along with several chapters on future research opportunities for the energy policy modeling community. The use of model-based analysis and scenarios in energy policy design and assessment has seen phenomenal growth during the past several decades. In recent years, renewed concerns about climate change and energy security have posed unique modeling challenges. By utilizing the validation techniques and procedures which are effectively demonstrated in these contributions, researchers and practitioners in energy systems domain can increase the appeal and acceptance of their policy models.

Alex Cowie As the twentieth century draws to a close, one of our greatest problems is the availability of energy. One way to study the energy problem is to resolve it into four areas; energy demand, energy sources, transportation of energy from sources to demand centers, and the optimal allocation of energy forms to demands. Each of these areas is extremely complex by itself. When efforts are made to tie them together, for example, to produce a National Policy, the complexities are compounded. Another way to study the energy problem, because of its political and so cial consequences, is to resolve it into geographical areas. Individual prov inces of Canada or states of the United States will have their concerns about energy within their geographical boundaries. As producer, consumer, or both, each wants to ensure an energy development program which will work to the maximum benefit of its citizens. Similarly, countries endeavor to pro tect their citizens and undertake energy policies that will assure either a con tinuation of the existing quality of life or - particularly in the case of "Third World" countries - a marked improvement in quality of life. These competing and conflicting goals call for a study which encompasses the whole world. Again, complexity is piled upon complexity. If the prob lem is not yet sufficiently complex, there is an equally complex question of the effect of energy production and use on the ecology.