Modelling Land Use Change

This book provides a full overview of land-use change simulation modelling, a wide range of applications, a mix of theory and practice, a synthesis of recent research progress, and educational material for students and teachers. This volume is an indispensable guide for anyone interested in the state-of-the-art of land-use modelling, its background and its application.

People are constantly changing the land surface through construction, agriculture, energy production, and other activities. Changes both in how land is used by people (land use) and in the vegetation, rock, buildings, and other physical material that cover the Earth's surface (land cover) can be described and future land change can be projected using land-change models (LCMs). LCMs are a key means for understanding how humans are reshaping the Earth's surface in the past and present, for forecasting future landscape conditions, and for developing policies to manage our use of resources and the environment at scales ranging from an individual parcel of land in a city to vast expanses of forests around the world. Advancing Land Change Modeling: Opportunities and Research Requirements describes various LCM approaches, suggests guidance for their appropriate application, and makes recommendations to improve the integration of observation strategies into the models. This report provides a summary and evaluation of several modeling approaches, and their theoretical and empirical underpinnings, relative to complex land-change dynamics and processes, and identifies several opportunities for further advancing the science, data, and cyberinfrastructure involved in the LCM enterprise. Because of the numerous models available, the report focuses on describing the categories of approaches used along with selected examples, rather than providing a review of specific models. Additionally, because all modeling approaches have relative strengths and weaknesses, the report compares these relative to different purposes. Advancing Land Change Modeling's recommendations for assessment of future data and research needs will enable model outputs to better assist the science, policy, and decisionsupport communities.

This book presents recent estimates on the rate of change of major land classes. Aggregated globally, multiple impacts of local land changes are shown to significantly affect central aspects of Earth System functioning. The book offers innovative developments and applications in the fields of modeling and scenario construction. Conclusions are also drawn about the most pressing implications for the design of appropriate intervention policies.

The thesis is an original and novel contribution to land use/land cover change analysis using methods of geosimulation and agent-based modeling. The author implements several traditional methodologies of land use change by means of remote sensing and GIS techniques. An Agent-Based Model was developed in order to simulate land use change in the Tehran metropolitan area, comparing the outcomes of each particular methodology. All methods are compared, and advantages and disadvantages discussed.

This book provides an overview of recent developments and applications of the Land Use Scanner model, which has been used in spatial planning for well over a decade. Internationally recognized as among the best of its kind, this versatile model can be applied at a national level for trend extrapolation, scenario studies and optimization, yet can also be employed in a smaller-scale regional context, as demonstrated by the assortment of regional case studies included in the book. Alongside these practical examples from the Netherlands, readers will find discussion of more theoretical aspects of land-use models as well as an assessment of various studies that aim to develop the Land-Use Scanner model further. Spanning the divide between the abstractions of land-use modelling and the imperatives of policy making, this is a cutting-edge account of the way in which the Land-Use Scanner approach is able to interrogate a spectrum of issues that range from climate change to transportation efficiency. Aimed at planners, researchers and policy makers who need to stay abreast of the latest advances in land-use modelling techniques in the context of planning practice, the book guides the reader through the applications supported by current instrumentation. It affords the opportunity for a wide readership to benefit from the extensive and acknowledged expertise of Dutch planners, who have originated a host of much-used models.

Michael Batty Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis, University College London Landscapes, like cities, cut across disciplines and professions. This makes it especially difficult to provide an overall sense of how landscapes should be studied and researched. Ecology, aesthetics, economy and sociology combine with physiognomy and deep physical structure to confuse our - derstanding and the way we should react to the problems and potentials of landscapes. Nowhere are these dilemmas and paradoxes so clearly highlighted as in Australia — where landscapes dominate and their relationship to cities is so fragile, yet so important to the sustainability of an entire nation, if not planet. This book presents a unique collection and synthesis of many of these perspectives — perhaps it could only be produced in a land urb- ised in the tiniest of pockets, and yet so daunting with respect to the way non-populated landscapes dwarf its cities. Many travel to Australia to its cities and never see the landscapes — but it is these that give the country its power and imagery. It is the landscapes that so impress on us the need to consider how our intervention, through activities ranging from resource exploitation and settled agriculture to climate change, poses one of the greatest crises facing the modern world. In this sense, Australia and its landscape provide a mirror through which we can glimpse the extent to which our intervention in the world threatens its very existence.

This book provides a full overview of land-use change simulation modelling, a wide range of applications, a mix of theory and practice, a synthesis of recent research progress, and educational material for students and teachers. This volume is an indispensable guide for anyone interested in the state-of-the-art of land-use modelling, its background and its application.