Monetary And Exchange Rate Policies Of The Euro Area

For the time being—and possibly for a considerable time to come—developments and prospects for the euro area are quite favorable. This upbeat outlook is underpinned by buoyant activity indicators and a supportive policy mix. High household and business confidence, rising capacity utilization and industrial production, strong job creation, and—so far—employment-friendly wage settlements point to sustained activity in the near term. Moreover, the macroeconomic fundamentals in the euro area appear much sounder than in previous recoveries.

The economic conditions in the euro area have brightened. Executive Directors commended the policy stance of the European Central Bank. They noted that the exchange rate developments of the euro failed to strengthen the euro area economy, and stressed the need for fiscal discipline, structural reforms, and wage moderation at the national level to maintain price stability in the medium term. They emphasized the need for deeper integration of European Union financial markets, development of risk capital, and improvement of the quality and sustainability of public finances.

This paper examines monetary and exchange rate policies of the euro area. The paper reviews the European Central Bank’s definition of price stability, and examines the factors determining “the optimal rate of inflation” in the euro area. It reviews the benefits of price stability, including the reduction in the distortions of savings and investment behavior that stem from the interaction between nominal tax systems and inflation. It then goes on to evaluate arguments for maintaining a small positive inflation rate in the context of the euro area.

This paper examines the monetary and exchange rate policies of the euro area and the trade policies of the European Union. The paper highlights that the overall economic performance of the euro area has been disappointing: growth has been weaker and inflation higher than generally expected. To a large extent, this is the result of a series of unanticipated shocks—oil prices and animal diseases earlier, and the global slowdown and the associated financial market turmoil more recently. However, the performance also appears to reflect a greater-than-anticipated vulnerability to shocks.

A series of adverse supply and demand shocks have brought the euro area’s three-year expansion to a virtual standstill. Buoyant labor markets, which have been the hallmark of the recovery since 1997, have succumbed only gradually to the slowing of output growth. The slowdown has been pervasive throughout the area, albeit unevenly and with different cyclical implications. Recent travails notwithstanding, the second half of the 1990s saw a significant improvement in the macroeconomic performance of the euro area.

The creation of the European Central Bank and the Euro have brought new challenges to EU integration and economic policy. This book looks into issues of monetary and factor market policies. The analysis also presents new theoretical and empirical research on the - transitory - decline of the Euro. Issues of exchange rate policy and international economic relations also are addressed.

The introduction of the euro was an important event for the world economy and the international political system. For the first time in history, a substantial group of European countries-eleven of the fifteen members of the European Union including three members of the G-7-have voluntarily agreed to replace their national currencies with a single currency. The euro area has already become established as the second largest currency area in the world and will therefore become a major player in the international monetary system. The creation of the euro poses a number of interesting questions. Will the euro be a strong or a weak currency? Will the euro challenge the leading position hitherto held by the United States dollar and would sharing of the burdens and advantages of reserve currency status improve or worsen the stability of the international monetary system? How will the euro affect US relations with Europe? Does the formation of the euro intensify European integration in other fields? Is a bi-polar international monetary system viable? These and other issues motivated the Luxembourg Institute for European and International Studies and the Pierre Werner Foundation to organize an international conference in Luxembourg on December 3-4, 1998, on the eve of the birth of the euro. At the outset we were aware that the issue of the euro went far beyond pure economics. Money, after all, is too important a subject to be left to economists.