Monitoring The Agri Food System In Myanmar Agricultural Crop Traders March 2022 Survey

Crop traders comprise the mid-stream of Myanmar’s food supply chain and serve as the essential link between farms and food processors, exporters, commodity exchange centers, and urban food markets. Thus, frictions and disruptions in the mid-stream caused by political instability and COVID-19 will likely affect farmers through market access and crop prices and urban consumers through food prices. This Research Note presents results from a telephone survey of 456 crop traders from 122 townships in 14 states/regions conducted between March 24 and April 4, 2022 (Figure 1). We use a broad definition of traders that includes wholesalers that buy, store, grade, and sell commodities as well as brokers that facilitate crop sales on commissions and we separate the two types in the analysis below. The March survey is a continuation of a panel survey that has completed 7 rounds since May 2020. In this round, we expanded the sample to achieve a higher number of observations and wider geographic coverage. This note presents a snapshot of the crop trading segment of Myanmar’s food supply chain one year after the political instability initiated in February 2021. The objectives of the survey were (i) to continue to track key disruptions to crop trade such as continued surges in transport costs and increased fuel prices; (ii) to provide detail on credit lent out to farmers and credit taken in by traders, and (iii) to collect price data and trading volumes for major crops. To understand changes since the coup, we asked traders to recall information on employment, trading volumes, crop prices, and transportation from the same time last year (March 2021). We compare contemporary data from 2022 to recalled data from 2021 for the analysis, and findings are shown as percent changes.

Crop traders are important actors in the mid-stream of Myanmar’s food supply chains serving as the essential link between farms and food processors, exporters, commodity exchange centers, and urban food markets. Disruptions in the mid-stream brought on by political instability and COVID-19 will likely have an impact on both farmers and urban consumers through market access and crop pricing.This is the eighth Research Note in a series that has monitored the impacts of COVID-19 and political instability on crop traders in Myanmar through telephone surveys since May 2020. This Research Note presents results from 359 interviews conducted between August 24th and September 5th, 2022 including (i) general and major disruptions caused by the political crisis (ii) perceived impacts resulting from transportation restrictions and recent changes in foreign currency regulations; (iii) changes in crop prices, trading volumes, transport costs, and fuel prices; (iv) detail on credit lent out to farmers and credit taken in by traders. The sample covers 111 townships in 14 states and regions (Figure 1). Traders from Shan State comprise the largest share in our sample (32 percent) followed by Magway (17 percent), Sagaing (17 percent), and Mandalay (15 percent). Wholesalers who purchase, store, grade, and sell commodities account for nearly three quarters of the sample. The other quarter is brokers and agents who facilitate crop transactions on commission. We split the two groups in the analysis and compare contemporary data from 2022 to recalled data from 2021. Results are shown as percentage changes.

To understand the effects of COVID-19 and political instability on Myanmar’s crop trade sector, a phone survey of commodity traders was conducted in September 2021. Key Findings The most significant disruptions to crop trading in September were in banking and transportation. Sixty percent of respondents reported higher transportation costs and 47 percent reported difficulties making and receiving payments for crops, respectively. Sixty-one percent of traders reported difficulties collecting repayment from farmers on credit lent out. Although over half the sample offered credit to farmers in the 2021 monsoon season, there was an 8 percent decline relative to the 2020 monsoon season. Overall, 82 percent of the credit lent to farmers has not yet been repaid and 37 percent of traders do not expect full repayment before the 2022 monsoon season. There was also a 9 percent decline in the share of traders taking credit in during the 2021 monsoon season (15 percent) relative to 2020 (24 percent) and 44 percent of the traders taking credit do not expect to fully repay these debts before the 2022 monsoon season. Sixty-three percent of traders reported lower overall trade volumes in September 2021 relative to the same time in 2020. For the main crop traded, average daily turnover was down by 5 percent and storage volumes were down by 6 percent. Hired transportation costs increased by an average of 23 percent relative to September 2020 and 56 percent of traders reported fewer trips to buy crops. Looking ahead If these hurdles persist into the monsoon marketing season, they will present challenges to farmers as they try to sell their harvests. Indeed, there are already signs of reduced marketing opportunities in September going into the harvest season. Removal of curfews and travel restrictions at each administrative level would lessen some of the marketing challenges. Delayed repayment of farmer credit combined with a heavy dependency on cash for transactions may lead to a cycle of reduced credit to farmers for winter and summer seasons.

To document changes in the mid-stream of Myanmar’s food value chains, a phone survey of commodity traders was conducted in April 2023 with a sample of 304 traders in 14 states and regions. Key Findings • Continuing trends from 2022, transportation disruptions and higher costs continue to be the most prevalent and the most impactful challenges facing crop traders in April 2023. Transport costs are 44 percent higher than a year ago and almost half of traders had difficulties accessing fuel, nearly doubling the share from one year prior. • In-person bank transfers have increased to 34 percent of crop sales, up from just 16 percent in 2022. However, average values of credit lent out to farmers and credit taken in by traders increased by more than 10 percent from 2022. • Lastly, crop prices, already high in 2022 after the start of the Russia-Ukraine War, have continued an upward trend, with Myanmar price increases outpacing global markets. However, local trading margins (as percentages of sales prices) have declined slightly since 2021, signaling continued competitiveness in crop trading. Looking Ahead • High crop prices may encourage investment in productive inputs and area expansions, hopefully leading to secure production in the 2023 monsoon. Conversely, higher prices are a negative for consumers, and continued difficulties and increased costs in transport will lead to wider price gaps between farmers and consumers and negative welfare effects. • For traders, high prices necessitate greater working capital. Improving access to capital and alleviating banking restrictions will further improve trade efficiency. • Lastly, export markets continue to be important for Myanmar’s agrifood system as important marketing channels that can stabilize prices from domestic demand shocks. Increased export demand can also increase domestic prices, which is a negative for consumers. Policies introduced to track exports more closely and bolster foreign currency reserves may add frictions to international crop trade that have knock-on effects through crop value chains.

To understand how Myanmar’s crop marketing system has been affected by political instability, phone interviews were conducted in May with 78 agricultural commodity traders. Key Findings: Although there have been modest improvements since the previous survey in March 2021, disruptions to transportation, payments, credit, and telecommunications are still widespread, with 94 percent of interviewed traders in May experiencing at least one business disruption. Credit for trading operations is a much more frequently cited difficulty compared to a year ago. Forty percent of traders reported challenges obtaining new credit or loans in May 2021 and 37 percent reported difficulties repaying loans, compared to just 15 percent and 10 percent in May 2020, respectively. Although credit demand increased, there has been a decline in credit provision to farmers. The share of traders offering credit dropped by 18 percentage points in May 2021 compared to May 2020, and the average value of credit lent by traders still lending is 30 percent lower. Unwillingness to lend may be related to increased difficulties in loan recovery–48 percent of traders experienced difficulties collecting repayment on credit lent to farmers in May 2021 compared to 27 percent in May 2020. There has been a dramatic reduction in adherence to COVID-19 preventive measures compared to the same period a year ago, despite the third wave of the pandemic underway and the presence of new and more contagious variants. Cash payments have become increasingly dominant for purchases and sales as bank transfers and mobile payments are rarely being used. The use of the Hundi system has also decreased in recent months. Crop volumes traded are down 12 percent compared to a year ago and sesame prices have dropped by one-third their value.

This Research Note presents the results of recent interviews with food vendors in rural and urban areas and in all state/regions of Myanmar as a part of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS) telephone survey (MAPSA 2022a). The purpose of the food vendor component of the MHWS is to provide data and insights to interested stakeholders in order that they better understand the effects of shocks related to COVID-19 and the ongoing political crisis on Myanmar’s food markets. In particular, the note explores (nominal) prices of foods and difficulties in food vendor operations due to the COVID-19 and political crises.

To understand the effects of recent economic and political disruptions on Myanmar’s maize farmers during the monsoon season, we conducted two telephone surveys with 1,178 farmers in July and September 2021. Key Findings There were widespread disruptions throughout the 2021 monsoon season: 11 percent of respondents were displaced by violence in July, and most farmers had had enforced transportation restrictions in their village tracts (58 percent) and their townships (84 percent). Seventy percent of farmers expect these restrictions to affect their monsoon marketing. Two-thirds of respondents received farm credit for inputs in the 2021 monsoon season, an increase of 3 percentage points relative to 2020, and average credit values increased slightly. Most credit was provided by traders (27 percent receiving), which may be unique to maize production as there are broader credit declines in other parts of the country and maize prices have increased in 2021. Additionally, exports to Thailand have been robust. High fertilizer prices will likely lead to a decline in application rates as 63 percent of farmers reported reduced input use, which will negatively affect yields. Median maize farm sizes fell by one acre in 2021 relative to 2020, though average maize acreages were stable. Pest incidence rates (72 percent reporting problems), especially for fall armyworm (45 percent), were high in July, posing another threat to production. There was a decline in access to formal extension services, particularly for information provided by input companies and government extension agents. Farmers increasingly turned to neighbors for agricultural advice.

In March 2023, we interviewed more than 430 active rice millers to assess business disruptions and price changes at the midstream of Myanmar’s most important agricultural value chain. Key findings  High fuel costs and electricity supply remain the most commonly reported disruptions in March 2023, with medium/ large modern mills facing more issues related to transport costs, electricity supply, and transport restrictions.  Among the disruptions, electricity access is the most significant disruption for both medium/large-scale mills and small/micro mills, followed by fuel costs and fuel access.  Smaller mills experienced declines in throughput, while larger mills maintained similar monthly throughput and decreased paddy storage compared to the previous year. Larger mills were less willing to provide credit to farmers, and there was an increase in byproduct sales for smaller mills.  Wages paid by mills increased by about 18 percent, working capital requirements to buy paddy rose significantly for both larger and smaller mills, and milling commission fees increased for both mill types compared to last year.  Paddy and rice prices for Emata and Pawsan varieties have significantly increased in March 2023, surpassing prices from March 2021 and 2022 due to currency devaluation and a slight increase in global rice prices. Milling margins have also increased compared to previous years. Despite the price hikes, millers are not extracting a disproportionate share of rice prices, and the prices of main byproducts, like broken rice and rice bran, have remained healthy, presenting positive prospects for mill profit margins.